6/21/15: GDT - NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves
- Thread starter Garmel
- Start date
what is your basis for 4 games?
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Based on what I've seen of the bullpen blowing a ridiculous amount of games where we had more than a 1 run lead.
No, since I'm an actual Braves fan I have watched almost every game this year. Basically any Brave fan that has watched the team play this year would agree with me.
Braves have had hte worst bullpen in baseball this year. Its clear to anyone that doesn't feel like being a devils advocate in all instances that the Braves would have at the very least 2 more wins this year with just an average pen.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Well an average pen would still blow leads. Braves fans don't know what an average pen is because we have had probably the best pen in baseball since 2010.
But it's easily a 2 game difference like you said.
I really don't see how this can be debated other than the fact of someone who just hasn't watched the team at all this year.
Even just 2 games has the Braves 4 games over 500 tied with the Nationals. Personally, I think its closer to 4 games.
You are saying 2-4. 2 is probably the top end. (BBref has 1.7) The Braves haven't had the worst bullpen in the majors when you use win probability. The difference in the Braves pen and a really good one is 4 wins at this point.
You want to play strict results with the teams win/loss record then use hypotheticals with the bullpen. It doesn't make much sense. The team has been lucky win/loss wise despite a below average pen.
Right now, they are .500.
They would be 34-36 using pythag
They would be 31-39 using equivalent runs
You are essentially wanting to say the Braves should be a first place team if they were lucky and had a great bullpen.
The point is you have no basis for this. It's just making stuff up.
Everything else would remain the same. All their other results. The only difference would be a pen that has blown a ridiculous amount of games this year so far.
How many games has the average pen blown so far?
Less than the Braves have.
how many?
See above...
chop2chip
Well-known member
If you trust fWAR's evaluation of relievers (I definitely hate WAR for relievers), then the Braves are -0.2 below replacement with an average pen right around 1.7. Two games is solid guesstimate.
I hate WAR for pitchers in general, and especially for relief pitchers. I find it to be a futile effort to approximate what our record would be. We have lost two games based on Fredi keeping Teheran in the 8th inning because he simply can't trust our bullpen. How do you measure strategy adjustments?
I hate WAR for pitchers in general, and especially for relief pitchers. I find it to be a futile effort to approximate what our record would be. We have lost two games based on Fredi keeping Teheran in the 8th inning because he simply can't trust our bullpen. How do you measure strategy adjustments?
I don't see where you discussed how many leads the average bullpen has blown.
win probability is 1.7 below average; which I think is the most accurate measure.