6/21/15: GDT - NY Mets @ Atlanta Braves

In the 2015 Braves-Mets series, both teams are 5-1 against the other at home resulting in a 6-6 deadlock before finishing up their season series in September.
 
thethe said:
What is the perception of this team if they are 8 games over 500 right now? You can't tell me that there wasn't 4 games this year that an average pen would have upheld?
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Let's look at the actual numbers. Before today the Braves were 19-9 in games they led entering the sixth inning. That's a winning % of .679 as compared to the NL average of .829, which would translate to 23-5, so we'd be minus 4 by that analysis. BUT when you also consider games tied after six innings the Braves are .632 (12-7) compared to the league average of .505, so they are Plus three in that category. They are right on the league average of a 3-19 record in games trailing after six innings.

I have I included games tied entering each inning and games trailing entering each inning because it seems to me the bullpen is also a major factor in the outcome of those games.

So for the sixth innings the Braves are a net Minus 1 compared to the NL average (Minus four in games led, plus three in games tied and net zero on games behind)

If the beginning of the seventh inning is your benchmark the Braves are net minus 2 (Minus five, plus three, and zero).

If the beginning of the eighth inning is your benchmark the Braves are net plus 1 (minus 2, plus 2, plus 1)

If the beginning of the ninth inning is your benchmark, the Braves are net minus 1 (minus 1, minus 1, plus 1)

Food for thought, anyway.
 
thethe said:
I think the starting pitching is going to get better as the season progresses and the bullpen is going to get better just from internal additions.

This offense is goingto battle and score runs. Need the pitching to get better and I think thats very likely to happen at very cheap costs, if any, to the organization.
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So I guess what you meant to say was "Things could get interesting real quick if if the pitching gets better."
 
I think it's stupid to say we can't win the division. There's any number of things that could go our way that could tip the scale in our favor. This season reminds me of 2005.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Let's look at the actual numbers. Before today the Braves were 19-9 in games they led entering the sixth inning. That's a winning % of .679 as compared to the NL average of .829, which would translate to 23-5, so we'd be minus 4 by that analysis. BUT when you also consider games tied after six innings the Braves are .632 (12-7) compared to the league average of .505, so they are Plus three in that category. They are right on the league average of a 3-19 record in games trailing after six innings.

I have I included games tied entering each inning and games trailing entering each inning because it seems to me the bullpen is also a major factor in the outcome of those games.

So for the sixth innings the Braves are a net Minus 1 compared to the NL average (Minus four in games led, plus three in games tied and net zero on games behind)

If the beginning of the seventh inning is your benchmark the Braves are net minus 2 (Minus five, plus three, and zero).

If the beginning of the eighth inning is your benchmark the Braves are net plus 1 (minus 2, plus 2, plus 1)

If the beginning of the ninth inning is your benchmark, the Braves are net minus 1 (minus 1, minus 1, plus 1)

Food for thought, anyway.
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Also bbref has our bullpen as a combined minus 1.8 wins vs. the league average.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2015.shtml
 
Better late than never!
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weso1 said:
I think the trade for the Haitian Sensation is a sign that the Braves are committed to a rebuild. They could have spent that money on a player that could help this year's team. Like Papelbon for example. Instead they spent it on a very young prospect.
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Which is really smart. Teams get in big trouble when they perceive themselves much better or worse than they actually are.
 
gilesfan said:
Which is really smart. Teams get in big trouble when they perceive themselves much better or worse than they actually are.
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Of course, if the Braves could have gotten Papelbon for Gosselin, they might well have pulled the trigger on that one.
 
JCarbo76 said:
Of course, if the Braves could have gotten Papelbon for Gosselin, they might well have pulled the trigger on that one.
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I dont think they would. I think they are committed to the rebuild. (Though that trade may not have affected rebuild)
 
gilesfan said:
I dont think they would. I think they are committed to the rebuild. (Though that trade may not have affected rebuild)
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Agree they might not have, if for no reason other than Papelbon is making 13m per season with a vesting option for 2016 if he finishes 24 more games this season (which he will easily do, absent an injury).
 
JCarbo76 said:
Agree they might not have, if for no reason other than Papelbon is making 13m per season with a vesting option for 2016 if he finishes 24 more games this season (which he will easily do, absent an injury).
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You think if they got papelbon grilli would lose his job? Just hypothetical but what role would papelbon take the 8th or would grilli take the 8th and jj be our dp specialist?
 
Papelbon has too big of ego to not be the closer at this point. Grilli might get the save when Papelbon is unavailable to pitch though. I would take Papelbon and his salary if we don't have to give up serious prospects. That would give us 2 solid closers through 2016.
 
I really don't think the latest salary dump move has any impact on the decision making process this year. The Braves have aggregated a TREMENDOUS amount of young talent to the point where getting a marginal piece for Grilli/Johnson is negligable. Sure, if a team is desperate and offers an impact young blue chip then you make the deal but I just don't think that type of deal is going to be there.

Braves will be adding another influx of talent with the international signing period as mostly everyone has rumored the Braves will be aggressive the next two years.

The Braves in my estimation have played anywhere from 4-8 games over 500 under the assumption they have an average pen. This is relevant to me because I believe we will have that average pen with just internal pieces. Then if another relief arm is out there for a non-impact piece the move will be made.

Again, this all is predicated on the Braves being within 2-5 games of first place come mid-July and they are at least 5 games over 500.
 
gilesfan said:
Which is really smart. Teams get in big trouble when they perceive themselves much better or worse than they actually are.
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Depends.

Trading some spare parts for a controllable bullpen arm wouldnt be bad if they are still in contention.
 
thethe said:
The Braves have aggregated a TREMENDOUS amount of young talent to the point where getting a marginal piece for Grilli/Johnson is negligable.
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It's never enough. (And that was literally one of the premises of the tear-down.)
 
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