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thewupk said:
There is no blind love. I just straight facts and statistics to make my arguments. Always have and always will.

And there is no agreeing to disagree. If you think dWAR value is crap based on certain positions then you DO NOT KNOW how it's calculated or what it means. That is also a fact.
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I know how it's calculated and what it means. And I disagree with its weighting relative to offense.
 
Knucksie said:
It's not how I like to spend my free time. However, when he drove in 173 (twice), 183 & 166, it's safe to assume that his BA with RISP was quite respectable.
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It's also a different era and he was on one of the best teams ever assembled. Over time players generally hit close to the same as RISP as they do with nobody on.
 
DirkPiggler said:
You seem knowledgable on defensive WAR, so maybe you can help me here.

The way I understand it, dWAR accounts for differences between various players at a given position relative to each other. A player with a 2.0 WAR is two games better than replacement level.

My question is, does dWAR also account for the relative importance of the different positions? I think we can all agree that defense is not as important at LF or 1B as it is in CF or SS, for example. Thinking about it intuitively, albeit without a full understanding of how the stat is calculated, you wouldn't stash an Evan Gattis in CF just because your current LF has a 2.0 dWAR and your current CF is replacement level on defense.

I'm seriously trying to learn here - not making a judgment on the Heyward is mediocre/ Heyward is awesome debate...yet.
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Yeah positional adjustments are built into Fangraphs version of WAR. I assume the same is for baseball ref's version. Positions like RF and 1B get penalties while SS And CF get additions to theirs.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I agree, Harry. I'm all for valuing defense, but the weighting is way off. Good illustration.
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The only problem with his illustration is that the first example is way off. Hunter pence just signed for 18 million a year while having a 775 ops. So slightly better numbers than what was stated but 6 million more per year. That's the market we are in.
 
thewupk said:
The only problem with his illustration is that the first example is way off. Hunter pence just signed for 18 million a year while having a 775 ops. So slightly better numbers than what was stated but 6 million more per year. That's the market we are in.
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Pence has a career .811 OPS.

Heyward has a career .780 OPS.

But, forget about that for a minute. Just because the Giants pay Pence $18M per year is justification for paying Heyward $20-$25M?

Pence has 7 straight years of 20 hr or more. Heyward has one.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Pence has a career .811 OPS.
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And also played in good hitter parks the first half of his career. And teams that pay for what a player has done in the past is generally making mistakes. Fact is 750 OPS players that hit FA in their mid to late 20's make more than 12 million a year.
 
thewupk said:
And also played in good hitter parks the first half of his career. And teams that pay for what a player has done in the past is generally making mistakes. Fact is 750 OPS players that hit FA in their mid to late 20's make more than 12 million a year.
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As opposed to paying player for what they MIGHT do in the future? Even when there is no evidence that supports the supposition?

Just because teams sometimes overpay FA doesn't make it a good idea.
 
thewupk said:
And also played in good hitter parks the first half of his career. And teams that pay for what a player has done in the past is generally making mistakes. Fact is 750 OPS players that hit FA in their mid to late 20's make more than 12 million a year.
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And playing in the worst hitters park in baseball and the worst hitting division in baseball for a significant part of his career.

It's not like Heyward has spent his career in pitchers parks on bad teams.
 
thewupk said:
Meant to say elite hitters. But yes those players would be Trout and Stanton.
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Oh. That's pretty different. Those are 2/3 best players in the game at any position. Heyward shouldn't approach that zip code. If give him 18-20 and feel like a over pay slightly, but would be good with jt
 
Tapate50 said:
Oh. That's pretty different. Those are 2/3 best players in the game at any position. Heyward shouldn't approach that zip code. If give him 18-20 and feel like a over pay slightly, but would be good with jt
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Both those guys as well as Harper and a few others are also big time run producers with legit bats. Heyward, not so much. At least not now.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Pence has a career .811 OPS.

Heyward has a career .780 OPS.

But, forget about that for a minute. Just because the Giants pay Pence $18M per year is justification for paying Heyward $20-$25M?

Pence has 7 straight years of 20 hr or more. Heyward has one.
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Yed that's how market value works. Players sign based off what other players sign for.
 
Tapate50 said:
Oh. That's pretty different. Those are 2/3 best players in the game at any position. Heyward shouldn't approach that zip code. If give him 18-20 and feel like a over pay slightly, but would be good with jt
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I don't think anybody thinks Heyward should approach those numbers. But that's what the top tier players get. Heyward is worth two thirds of that
 
Horsehide Harry said:
As opposed to paying player for what they MIGHT do in the future? Even when there is no evidence that supports the supposition?

Just because teams sometimes overpay FA doesn't make it a good idea.
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I just think your idea of player salaries is off. Giants didn't really over pay. That's just what the market is
 
Horsehide Harry said:
You think he's great. I don't.

Let's just leave it at that.
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That's right. He's looking at him saying he's a 5-6 WAR player, which is an all-star or better; you and I, who are skeptical of the relative value of defense in the WAR equation (you call Heyward above average; I'll go further and say he's the best defensive RF in baseball) and do not value him the way we would value a player whose 5-6 WAR were mainly made up of the offense component, maybe Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt.

WAR has become a handy shorthand for valuing a player and is never accompanied with all the disclaimers its authors give, talking about major year-to-year swings in dWAR and using it as an estimate not an absolute and so forth. And if it is going to take on that kind of prominence, it simply must be improved.

Hey, I understand the surface logic that a run saved equals a run produced. But consider this: nearly every run is produced. Not every run is saved. You don't have that many chances to do something extraordinary on the field to save runs. Does that make sense?

There's something wrong with the weighting of the accrual of DRS that gets guys way above the standard deviation accrual too quickly. The impact of X DRS needs to be tamped down a bit, maybe by half or so. And it bothers me a lot that certain skills aren't picked up in dWAR, like a 1B's ability to pick it (they aren't all the same) and a lot of things about catching.

I think in a few years somebody is going to refine defensive statistics to incorporate those things and recognize the relative weights of defense and you advanced stat guys will say, "of course. It's always been so," after so many years of defending this WAR shorthand.
 
Dalyn said:
http://m.mlb.com/video/v29041345/atlnym-heyward-ends-the-game-with-terrific-catch
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I wish we would have moved Heyward to CF instead of signing BJ Upton. We might not even be debating rebuild or not rebuild if we had done that. I'm sure Heyward would have done it and I'm guessing Wren thought about it. Not sure if the decision was on the Braves or maybe Heyward's agent who may have thought that Heyward in CF would have been too risky. I've said this before, but we could have signed Torii Hunter to play RF for us on a 2 or 3 year deal and gotten good production. Instead we signed BJ Upton to what wound up being a crippling deal.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
That's right. He's looking at him saying he's a 5-6 WAR player, which is an all-star or better; you and I, who are skeptical of the relative value of defense in the WAR equation (you call Heyward above average; I'll go further and say he's the best defensive RF in baseball) and do not value him the way we would value a player whose 5-6 WAR were mainly made up of the offense component, maybe Joey Votto or Paul Goldschmidt.

WAR has become a handy shorthand for valuing a player and is never accompanied with all the disclaimers its authors give, talking about major year-to-year swings in dWAR and using it as an estimate not an absolute and so forth. And if it is going to take on that kind of prominence, it simply must be improved.

Hey, I understand the surface logic that a run saved equals a run produced. But consider this: nearly every run is produced. Not every run is saved. You don't have that many chances to do something extraordinary on the field to save runs. Does that make sense?

There's something wrong with the weighting of the accrual of DRS that gets guys way above the standard deviation accrual too quickly. The impact of X DRS needs to be tamped down a bit, maybe by half or so. And it bothers me a lot that certain skills aren't picked up in dWAR, like a 1B's ability to pick it (they aren't all the same) and a lot of things about catching.

I think in a few years somebody is going to refine defensive statistics to incorporate those things and recognize the relative weights of defense and you advanced stat guys will say, "of course. It's always been so," after so many years of defending this WAR shorthand.
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I agree 100%.

I look at it like this: Defensive value has many external factors that play into the valuation that aren't necessarily accounted for. For example, defensive value certainly is affected by the play of other players on the field. Take Greg Maddux for example - heavy ground ball pitcher (rare rf relevance), significant K pitcher (no rf significance), got tons of ball in play back up the middle (no rf relevance).

Also, the other team has an effect on defensive relevance for a player. What if the other team is full of RH pull bats? The rf ends up standing around.

Also, the defensive coaches play a part. What if Heyward is positioned wrong where he has to run, successfully, to make a play? That makes the play better than it should have been. What if the coaches always have the rf positioned right where he should be? Then his opportunities to provide above average impact are diminished.

Also, how does defense translate over time? Andruw Jones was great early but all the belly flops (sometimes unnecessarily) over time eroded his ability (and affected his bat).

The value of defense is relative. It's good to have it but it doesn't always have the opportunity to be used. Whereas hitting ability is always used, every at bat.
 
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