Farewell to Wood, Peraza, Jimmy Johns, and Avilans.

[smootness]

Certainly, but depends on the return obviously. A long term bat would have been understandable. Now we have a short term bat and a hole in the pitching staff.

I think you know by now that we are in full agreement on that trade. I was simply taking issue with the fact that thethe continues to use Wood's potential 'sell-high' quality as a defense of the trade when it is simply a defense of the idea of trading Wood, which even you are ok with given the proper return.

The return is the issue we both have with the trade, not that we were attempting to sell high on Wood. We just didn't get his current value, so we didn't in fact sell high.

 

[Chico]

I think you know by now that we are in full agreement on that trade. I was simply taking issue with the fact that thethe continues to use Wood's potential 'sell-high' quality as a defense of the trade when it is simply a defense of the idea of trading Wood, which even you are ok with given the proper return.

The return is the issue we both have with the trade, not that we were attempting to sell high on Wood. We just didn't get his current value, so we didn't in fact sell high.

I understand your point, but the fact is we don't exactly know what we're getting in Olivera. I know that a first round pick who has balled out at AA is easier for us to gauge for the future, but that's still a gamble too. It seems the thing that has many fans in an uproar is the unknown, as we're always fearful of the unknown. I don't think you can make a statement that we did not get current value without knowing exactly what we got.

 

[chipchildress]

let's also go ahead and say this was a trade for a 31 year old, not a 30 year old, since this season is obviously a big nothing for both the braves and olivera.

 

[gilesfan]

Calling Olivera "short term" is a subjective assessment. He is signed for 5 more years... making him more "long term." I know you are making an assumption that he will be injured and not be good in the long term. My point is that a player signed for 5 years is not, by definition "short term."

I mean by production in the short term. You can't expect much from guys 33, 34, 35

 

[benchguy]

Didn't know the Nats had a short term bat and a hole in the pitching staff....that is your we...isn't it.

Certainly, but depends on the return obviously. A long term bat would have been understandable. Now we have a short term bat and a hole in the pitching staff.

 

[chipchildress]

has anybody here mentioned just how terrible this trade was? i'm more convinced now than ever that the braves are just being total assholes and playing to lose while trying to save as much money as possible to help pay for that new stadium.

 

[smootness]

I understand your point, but the fact is we don't exactly know what we're getting in Olivera. I know that a first round pick who has balled out at AA is easier for us to gauge for the future, but that's still a gamble too. It seems the thing that has many fans in an uproar is the unknown, as we're always fearful of the unknown. I don't think you can make a statement that we did not get current value without knowing exactly what we got.

No, I get this. There's a chance we get a good bat for at least a couple years in Olivera. If that happens, ok. There's a chance we come out on top in this trade; I think most have acknowledged that there is at least the possibility of that happening.

I have 3 main issues with the return in that trade:
1) We traded for a 30-year-old in the middle of a rebuild when most of our talent is still at least a couple years away.
2) That 30-year-old is an unknown. People are using this as a defense of the return, when the fact that it is an unknown itself means we should have gotten more because Wood is a known.
3) That 30-year-old has serious health issues. Aside from just being 30, he has blood clot issues, an elbow issue that could require TJ, and currently a hamstring issue.

The ceiling for Olivera is roughly the value Wood has given us for 3 years. Considering Wood is already there and it is far from certain Olivera will ever give us that, we should have gotten more. That's it. And even if he does hit his upside, it's unlikely he'll be at that level beyond 2017. So people point to the upside we got in this trade, but I think the current value is worse and the upside is worse as well compared to what we gave up.

 

[Knucksie]

[/B]

I really hated that deal at a number of levels, but Teixeira continues to out-perform all the guys used to acquire him.

One thing that favored it, and it's understood that this opinion isn't popular around here, that it gave the lineup 2 high average/big power switch hitters. Opponents could not pitch around both of them. Having that kind of protection in the batting order, sent Chipper into another galaxy.

If ownership would have just put up the money to sign him that would have been a brilliant trade.

They were hoping that his memories of Georgia Tech was so fond that he'd be open to the "hometown discount."

 

[thethe]

No, I get this. There's a chance we get a good bat for at least a couple years in Olivera. If that happens, ok. There's a chance we come out on top in this trade; I think most have acknowledged that there is at least the possibility of that happening.

I have 3 main issues with the return in that trade:
1) We traded for a 30-year-old in the middle of a rebuild when most of our talent is still at least a couple years away.
2) That 30-year-old is an unknown. People are using this as a defense of the return, when the fact that it is an unknown itself means we should have gotten more because Wood is a known.
3) That 30-year-old has serious health issues. Aside from just being 30, he has blood clot issues, an elbow issue that could require TJ, and currently a hamstring issue.

The ceiling for Olivera is roughly the value Wood has given us for 3 years. Considering Wood is already there and it is far from certain Olivera will ever give us that, we should have gotten more. That's it. And even if he does hit his upside, it's unlikely he'll be at that level beyond 2017. So people point to the upside we got in this trade, but I think the current value is worse and the upside is worse as well compared to what we gave up.

There is no way that you know what his ceiling is. And Olivera is an unknown to you and me because we have yet to see him play. But to the baseball people that have been scouting him for years I think they have a pretty good idea what he is going to be. There is a reason that a complete unknown got 60+ million this offseason.

The rebuild is not going to take another few years. The rebuild at worst is slated for 2017 and having Olivera in the lineup producing will be a big part of that.

 

[smootness]

There is no way that you know what his ceiling is. And Olivera is an unknown to you and me because we have yet to see him play. But to the baseball people that have been scouting him for years I think they have a pretty good idea what he is going to be. There is a reason that a complete unknown got 60+ million this offseason.

The rebuild is not going to take another few years. The rebuild at worst is slated for 2017 and having Olivera in the lineup producing will be a big part of that.

You can't say on the one hand that we have no idea what Olivera's ceiling is, then turn around and say scouts have a pretty good idea of what he is going to be. This is not some 22-year-old kid who barely played in Cuba. We have years and years of his prime and know what he did. Based on his age and what he did in Cuba, yes, we do have a pretty good idea of what his ceiling is.

And you keep acting like $60+ million is some huge contract. Granderson got more. Markakis got roughly that. Infante got 4 years, $30+.

In terms of the rebuild, I'm just going by the assets we have. I understand 2017 has always been the goal, but I don't see all the moves we're going to make between now and then to make us WS contenders. Because if we're going to get to that point, we will have to add a lot. There's not going to be a ton of talent making its way naturally to the majors in the next 1-2 years that will drastically alter what we are, and we don't have super young major league pieces that will naturally improve a whole bunch, either.

I see Folty, Jenkins, Banuelos, and possibly Fried as the pitchers who could graduate by then. That's pretty good but it's not like we have a Giolito ready to come up.

And in terms of hitting talent, it's Mallex, possibly Ruiz, and Peterson and Albies may have a chance to come up at some point during that year. But that group is not going to change much, at least not early on.

We're probably 1 or 2 really good starting pitchers and at least 2-3 legitimate quality bats away from really competing. I don't see the minors providing much of that, so we'll have to either sign it or trade for it, and that cost would be prohibitive. Plus, the FA market for 2017 isn't great, so most of the moves we make will have to be made by next year.

I love the way our farm system is shaping up, but it's not going to help us a whole lot by 2017; that's what I'm saying. So if we plan on competing in 2017, we have to make some serious moves and probably overpay. I see our true window starting to open more like 2018.

 

[sturg33]

If we would have made the same deal for Moncada... then I'd have been more on board... instead we got an old dude who can't get on the field.

I really can't see how ANYONE defends this

 

[sturg33]

If we would have made the same deal for Moncada... then I'd have been more on board... instead we got an old dude who can't get on the field.

I really can't see how ANYONE defends this

 

[thethe]

You can't say on the one hand that we have no idea what Olivera's ceiling is, then turn around and say scouts have a pretty good idea of what he is going to be. This is not some 22-year-old kid who barely played in Cuba. We have years and years of his prime and know what he did. Based on his age and what he did in Cuba, yes, we do have a pretty good idea of what his ceiling is.

And you keep acting like $60+ million is some huge contract. Granderson got more. Markakis got roughly that. Infante got 4 years, $30+.

In terms of the rebuild, I'm just going by the assets we have. I understand 2017 has always been the goal, but I don't see all the moves we're going to make between now and then to make us WS contenders. Because if we're going to get to that point, we will have to add a lot. There's not going to be a ton of talent making its way naturally to the majors in the next 1-2 years that will drastically alter what we are, and we don't have super young major league pieces that will naturally improve a whole bunch, either.

I see Folty, Jenkins, Banuelos, and possibly Fried as the pitchers who could graduate by then. That's pretty good but it's not like we have a Giolito ready to come up.

And in terms of hitting talent, it's Mallex, possibly Ruiz, and Peterson and Albies may have a chance to come up at some point during that year. But that group is not going to change much, at least not early on.

We're probably 1 or 2 really good starting pitchers and at least 2-3 legitimate quality bats away from really competing. I don't see the minors providing much of that, so we'll have to either sign it or trade for it, and that cost would be prohibitive. Plus, the FA market for 2017 isn't great, so most of the moves we make will have to be made by next year.

I love the way our farm system is shaping up, but it's not going to help us a whole lot by 2017; that's what I'm saying. So if we plan on competing in 2017, we have to make some serious moves and probably overpay. I see our true window starting to open more like 2018.

And we don't know who will be made available via trade in the next year. Braves will have loads of pieces to trade if the right hitter comes around.

This is the way I see us being a contender as early as 2016:

1. Absolutely have to sign either Price or Grienke.
2. Olivera becomes a 280/340/480 type of hitter with average defense at third base.
3. Markakis with a offseason of of weight lifting slashes 280/350/450
4. Sign Parra to a 4 year deal and put him in LF and leading off

I think those are 4 obtainable scenarios that would put the Braves into the conversation for the playoffs.

 

[Oklahomabrave]

And we don't know who will be made available via trade in the next year. Braves will have loads of pieces to trade if the right hitter comes around.

This is the way I see us being a contender as early as 2016:

1. Absolutely have to sign either Price or Grienke.

2. Olivera becomes a 280/340/480 type of hitter with average defense at third base.

3. Markakis with a offseason of of weight lifting slashes 280/350/450

4. Sign Parra to a 4 year deal and put him in LF and leading off

I think those are 4 obtainable scenarios that would put the Braves into the conversation for the playoffs.

You had me to the last one. We have the pieces to get a stud in LF via trade, and I hoe we do.

 

[thethe]

You had me to the last one. We have the pieces to get a stud in LF via trade, and I hoe we do.

We can do that as well. Hard for me to imagine who will be available but Parra is an underrated player. I think he would fit in nicely to the lineup at the top.

 

[smootness]

And we don't know who will be made available via trade in the next year. Braves will have loads of pieces to trade if the right hitter comes around.

This is the way I see us being a contender as early as 2016:

1. Absolutely have to sign either Price or Grienke.
2. Olivera becomes a 280/340/480 type of hitter with average defense at third base.
3. Markakis with a offseason of of weight lifting slashes 280/350/450
4. Sign Parra to a 4 year deal and put him in LF and leading off

I think those are 4 obtainable scenarios that would put the Braves into the conversation for the playoffs.

That may get us into the conversation for a playoff spot (even that may be a little optimistic), but we would still need to add at least one pretty significant piece from there to really contend.

Those numbers are not impossible from Olivera and Markakis, but they're not likely. And Parra is coming into his own a little, but he's unlikely to duplicate exactly what he's doing this year. You're looking more likely at something like a .780-.800 OPS from Olivera (with some missed time probably), a .750-.780 OPS from Markakis, and a .750-.800 OPS from Parra. Those are quality pieces, but they're not big difference-makers.

I think in order to really compete, a team needs to have at least 5 guys in the lineup putting up a 3+ WAR and at least 3 guys in the rotation doing the same. Right now, we have Freeman and maybe Simmons (if he hits well enough) in the lineup and Miller in the rotation. If Teheran bounces back and pitches his best, he's another.

So yes, adding Price would be huge, and there's a chance Olivera can give you around 3 WAR, but I kind of doubt it. So you're still looking to fill some serious holes in the lineup with good pieces, and in order to do that, it's going to cost more than I want to pay. If we're not going to be trading anything from the Toussaint/Allard/Albies/Davidson/Riley group, and I seriously hope we don't, I'm just not sure what the other trade pieces will reasonably bring back.

I think we can put a competitive team on the field that has a chance to make a run at a wild card, but a team that is truly one of the best in baseball? I don't see that happening by 2017 without us selling the farm.

 

[Heyward]

That may get us into the conversation for a playoff spot (even that may be a little optimistic), but we would still need to add at least one pretty significant piece from there to really contend.

Those numbers are not impossible from Olivera and Markakis, but they're not likely. And Parra is coming into his own a little, but he's unlikely to duplicate exactly what he's doing this year. You're looking more likely at something like a .780-.800 OPS from Olivera (with some missed time probably), a .750-.780 OPS from Markakis, and a .750-.800 OPS from Parra. Those are quality pieces, but they're not big difference-makers.

I think in order to really compete, a team needs to have at least 5 guys in the lineup putting up a 3+ WAR and at least 3 guys in the rotation doing the same. Right now, we have Freeman and maybe Simmons (if he hits well enough) in the lineup and Miller in the rotation. If Teheran bounces back and pitches his best, he's another.

So yes, adding Price would be huge, and there's a chance Olivera can give you around 3 WAR, but I kind of doubt it. So you're still looking to fill some serious holes in the lineup with good pieces, and in order to do that, it's going to cost more than I want to pay. If we're not going to be trading anything from the Toussaint/Allard/Albies/Davidson/Riley group, and I seriously hope we don't, I'm just not sure what the other trade pieces will reasonably bring back.

I think we can put a competitive team on the field that has a chance to make a run at a wild card, but a team that is truly one of the best in baseball? I don't see that happening by 2017 without us selling the farm.

It's not a WS contender, sure, but it could contend for a WC spot.

Parra is a good player, i dont see what would be bad with getting him.

 

[smootness]

It's not a WS contender, sure, but it could contend for a WC spot.

Parra is a good player, i dont see what would be bad with getting him.

I didn't say we shouldn't get Parra; he's a decent player having a fantastic season. If he did this next year, that would be great, but he was replacement level last year and has been up and down his whole career. He had an incredible defensive season in 2013 but every other year has been about average. Kind of a strange career so far.

I'm fine with having a competitive team who can contend for a WC in 2016-2017. My concern is that the FO may want to put a WS contender on the field for 2017, which would cost a heck of a lot.

 

[thethe]

I didn't say we shouldn't get Parra; he's a decent player having a fantastic season. If he did this next year, that would be great, but he was replacement level last year and has been up and down his whole career. He had an incredible defensive season in 2013 but every other year has been about average. Kind of a strange career so far.

I'm fine with having a competitive team who can contend for a WC in 2016-2017. My concern is that the FO may want to put a WS contender on the field for 2017, which would cost a heck of a lot.

I think putting a WS team on the field next year would not be best for the rebuild plan but I would be very shocked if we weren't a 88-92 win team come 2017. Now the Mets might make it difficult on us but I think that is definitely the timeframe to get back to where we should be.

 

[zbhargrove]

I didn't say we shouldn't get Parra; he's a decent player having a fantastic season. If he did this next year, that would be great, but he was replacement level last year and has been up and down his whole career. He had an incredible defensive season in 2013 but every other year has been about average. Kind of a strange career so far.

I'm fine with having a competitive team who can contend for a WC in 2016-2017. My concern is that the FO may want to put a WS contender on the field for 2017, which would cost a heck of a lot.

Yah, his BABIP is up near .375 which is a career high from a quick glance by a long shot... he was a top 100 prospect at one point, however.