Shelby to AZ for E. Inciarte, A. Blair, and Dansby Swanson
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
DaneHill
Well-known member
I expected the AZ board to be in full meltdown mode, but they're actually being quite reasonable about the trade. Interesting.
http://www.forums.mlb.com/discussions/Arizona_Diamondbacks/_/_/ml-diamondbacks/41529.1
http://www.forums.mlb.com/discussions/Arizona_Diamondbacks/_/_/ml-diamondbacks/41529.1
striker42
Well-known member
I'm not ready to call Mallex expendable because we have Inciarte. Inciarte is an excellent defender but there's nothing he does exceptionally well offensively. He's a decent hitter for average but that doesn't translate to good on base skills. He can run well but gets gunned down a lot stealing bases. And doesn't have much power. He's gotta improve something. He needs to increase his power, refine his baserunning, or (my personal hope) improve his on base skills.
Mallex also is a good hitter for average but his on base skills in the minors have been far better than Inciarte's. Mallex has maintained a BB% over 11% most of his career. He had a BB% of 11.3% in AA last year. It dropped to 7.8% in AAA but he did take a while to adjust. For context, 8% is average.
Unlike Inciarte, Mallex actually looks like he could become someone who could hit close to .300 while walking perhaps 10% of his PAs. With that you'd be talking about an OBP well north of .350 and perhaps in the .380 territory.
Inciarte is quick but Mallex is a terror on the basepaths. Mallex has true 80 speed. He's a 40 to 50 steal a year kind of guy.
Inciarte is pretty much the guy he's going to be. He may improve in some areas but probably isn't going to become a superstar. He's a guy who will play great defense, hit .280-.300, hit 5-10 HRs, steal 15-20 bases, but only get on base at a .330 or so clip.
Mallex's ceiling is much higher. Mallex could be a guy who hits .300+, have an OBP of .380, and steal 50 bases. That's a superstar ceiling. Now he probably doesn't become that. But I don't think hitting .280 with a .350 OBP and 40 steals a year is far fetched.
Mallex's biggest question mark is his defense. He can outrun some mistakes but he's not that good of a defender. However, Smith's routes to balls are more likely to improve than Inciarte's batting eye.
Mallex also is a good hitter for average but his on base skills in the minors have been far better than Inciarte's. Mallex has maintained a BB% over 11% most of his career. He had a BB% of 11.3% in AA last year. It dropped to 7.8% in AAA but he did take a while to adjust. For context, 8% is average.
Unlike Inciarte, Mallex actually looks like he could become someone who could hit close to .300 while walking perhaps 10% of his PAs. With that you'd be talking about an OBP well north of .350 and perhaps in the .380 territory.
Inciarte is quick but Mallex is a terror on the basepaths. Mallex has true 80 speed. He's a 40 to 50 steal a year kind of guy.
Inciarte is pretty much the guy he's going to be. He may improve in some areas but probably isn't going to become a superstar. He's a guy who will play great defense, hit .280-.300, hit 5-10 HRs, steal 15-20 bases, but only get on base at a .330 or so clip.
Mallex's ceiling is much higher. Mallex could be a guy who hits .300+, have an OBP of .380, and steal 50 bases. That's a superstar ceiling. Now he probably doesn't become that. But I don't think hitting .280 with a .350 OBP and 40 steals a year is far fetched.
Mallex's biggest question mark is his defense. He can outrun some mistakes but he's not that good of a defender. However, Smith's routes to balls are more likely to improve than Inciarte's batting eye.
Deester11
Well-known member
Not at the SnakePit. LOL. The people who know baseball still think the Braves won the trade easily. But the DBacks got what they wanted. After the shock, fans are usually a "little" more reasonable. Except here..lol
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
It hurts them going forward, but they HAD to trade for a guy like Miller. They had no chance in the division without him.
I disagree with this. He doesn't really need to improve anything. He's already a valuable player as he is right now. He is a premier defensive CF who is at least league-average with the bat. That is absolutely valuable.
And I also disagree that Mallex has a much higher ceiling. Sure, we can say he's a potential .380 OBP guy, but essentially no talent evaluators think there is a chance he becomes that. The consensus is that his average will play more like .270ish in the majors, so his OBP is unlikely to end up being much higher than Inciarte's in the majors. Where Mallex has him beat in plate discipline and taking walks, Inciarte seems to have him beat in his actual swing and getting base hits.
Obviously Mallex's speed is a separator, but that's essentially Mallex's only clear value, and he will have to get on base well to use it.
I'm not saying it's impossible that Mallex ends up more valuable than Inciarte, but I do think it is quite unlikely. Based on that, if you can find a team that values Mallex like you do and sees a higher ceiling, it makes sense to make the deal before he potentially gets to the majors and proves he can't get on base enough.
A .280 average with a .350 OBP and 40 steals with his average defense is not more value than Inciarte is giving you right now.
I'm saying it's a proven fact that your projections for 3 years down the road are false.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
How so?
I think they realize it's a steep price but they're trading from strength, not losing much major league talent because of depth in OF. Again, let me preface this next comment by saying I LOVE LOVE LOVE this trade....but they traded a promising SP in Blair who's ceiling is a mid rotation SP, and a SS who doesn't have the offensive upside of Correa/Seager types. I personally think this was a good trade for both sides.
Oh, I was just kidding. Sorry, it's hard to indicate sarcasm through a message board. I was trying to point out how absurd it was that I was taking issue with your projected batting order for 2018, including guys who haven't even made it past A ball yet.
Maybe, but, 'Relax, one of the 3 pieces we gave up in this deal is not quite as good as Carlos Correa or Corey Seager,' is not exactly something I want to hear if I'm a D-Backs fan.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
we all like to live in an alternate universe. rarely does anything anyone say comes true.. but who cares. it is the life of an internet GM.. slow winter meeting day compared to yesterday so create some news if you cant report it...
My whole jist of the post was Springer would look nice in a 'Projected' future lineup. but I guess when Springer loses both his legs during the Huston Earthquake of 2016.. my dreams will be dashed..
I agree but my point is they maybe overpaid in very good talent but remains to be seen if they gave up a true impact player. I'm without a doubt on the high end on Swanson but there are scouts that doubt how much of an impact he'll make offensively. Again, I'm on the high side with Swanson.
I just think this was all around a good trade for both given the state of each team.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
ultimately, if the Dbacks make a deep run for the next three years and Miller is a big part of it.. then it will be hard to argue that it was a bad trade no matter how great all these pieces turn out.
There are two ways to evaluate a trade. One is to see whether both teams got what they wanted. The other is to evaluate whether each side had to give up as much as they did to get what they got.
Based on the first evaluation, it's iffy for the D-Backs. They gave up current value and a ton of future value to add current value. Based on the second evaluation, it's a pretty clearly terrible deal for them. They definitely did not have to give up this much to get a pitcher of Miller's quality.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
If Coppy/Hart took a package of Inciarte and Blair would they be getting the same reaction? I don't think they would. Swanson is a great pick up for us at this point. They did a good job sticking to their guns and taking advantage of a team in the WIN NOW mode. They did that last year with Padre moves as well
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Depends on 2 things.
They need to win a WS.
And two, Swanson. If Swanson turns out to be a superstar (not Trout/Harper level), but still damn good, then they lost. But still a trade to go after.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
They didnt get fleeced, it's a good deal for both sides.
What the Wood and Miller trades show me, regardless of what anyone thinks of the returns, is that the FO finally understands how to sell high on an asset. My biggest gripe with Wren was that he never, ever, sold high on guys like Hanson, JJ, Medlen, Beachy, and Minor. Knowing how volatile pitchers are, he should have recognized when their values were at an apex and traded them accordingly. He never did, and each one flamed out and returned no value to the club.
The policy on pitchers should always be to let them establish themselves in their first 3-4 years, and then flip them for younger assets. Let the next young guy move into the vacated rotation spot, which can start happening within the next couple years. If a guy shows success at a very young age, go ahead and buy out 1-2 of his FA years if they can be bought cheaply. If the pitcher is already slated to become a FA at 30+ years old, always make him go through arbitration so he can be cut loose at any time. If a rotation spot needs to be filled via FA, sign a guy like Norris to fill in for a year. Never, ever, commit big money to a pitcher.
The policy on pitchers should always be to let them establish themselves in their first 3-4 years, and then flip them for younger assets. Let the next young guy move into the vacated rotation spot, which can start happening within the next couple years. If a guy shows success at a very young age, go ahead and buy out 1-2 of his FA years if they can be bought cheaply. If the pitcher is already slated to become a FA at 30+ years old, always make him go through arbitration so he can be cut loose at any time. If a rotation spot needs to be filled via FA, sign a guy like Norris to fill in for a year. Never, ever, commit big money to a pitcher.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
So if one of our young pitchers turn out to be a Kershaw, Felix, Bumgarner, Price, etc type, we shouldnt sign them to big dollars?