International News, Rumor and Signing Thread

Hudson2 said:
Were any of those busts as highly regarded or as talked about as Maitan?
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Re: highly regarded - If the hyperbole of "best International prospect since Cabrera" is true, then no. But I remember when Michael Ynoa signed and he was tagged as a taller Felix Hernandez. He's yet to make it out of A ball and was quietly traded to the White Sox with Shark.

As for "talked about", this list is pre-Twitter. That's a poor proxy for ability.
 
chop2chip said:
I wouldn't even be that confident. The list below isn't cherry picked. It's the top signing bonuses ever paid out to J2 signing players as of 2009 (anything post that timeline wouldn't be a fair consideration at this point). Not a lot of hits, plenty of misses.

Michael Ynoa, 16, RHP, 2008, Athletics, D.R., $4,250,000

Miguel Sano, 16, SS, 2009, Twins, D.R., $3,150,000

Gary Sanchez, 16, C, 2009, Yankees, D.R., $3,000,000

Rafael Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Giants, D.R., $2,550,000

Yorman Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, VZA, $2,500,000

Wily Mo Peña, 17, OF, 1999, Yankees, D.R., $2,440,000

Joel Guzman, 16, SS, 2001, Dodgers, D.R., $2,255,000

Angel Villalona, 16, 3B, 2006, Giants, D.R., $2,100,00

Juan Duran, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, D.R., $2,000,000

Adys Portillo, 16, RHP, 2008, Padres, VZA, $2,000,000

Guillermo Pimental, 16, CF, 2009, Mariners, D.R., $2,000,000

Jose Vincio, 16, SS, 2009, Red Sox, D.R., $1,950,000

Miguel Cabrera, 16, IF, 1999, Marlins, VZA, $1,800,000

Jesus Montero, 16, C, 2006, Yankees, VZA, $1,650,000

Jackson Melian, 16, OF, 1996, Yankees, VZA, $1,600,000

Jurickson Profar, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, Curaçao, $1,550,000

Ricardo Aramboles, 16, RHP, 1998, Yankees, D.R., $1,520,000

Luis Sardinas, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, VZA, 1,500,000

Michael Almanzar, 16, SS, 2007, Red Sox, D.R., $1,500,000

Esmailyn Gonzalez, 16, SS, 2006, Nationals, D.R., $1,400,000

Fernando Martinez, 16, OF, 2005, Mets, D.R., $1,400,000

Willy Aybar, 16, IF, 2000, Dodgers, D.R., $1,400,000

Carlos Triunfel, 16, SS, 2006, Mariners, D.R., $1,300,000

Luis Domoromo, 16, OF, 2008, Padres, VZA, $1,250,000

Juan Urbina, 16, LHP, 2009, Mets, VZA, $1,250,000

Chesler Cuthbert, 16, 3B, 2009, Royals, Nicaragua, $1,200,000

Roberto De la Cruz, 16, 3B, 2008, Cardinals, D.R., $1,100,000

Julio Morban, 16, OF, 2008, Mariners, D.R., $1,100,000

Kelvin De Leon, 16, OF, 2007, Yankees, D.R., $1,100,000

Alvaro Aristy, 17, SS, 2008, Padres, D.R., $1,000,000

Jharmidy De Jesus, 17, SS, 2007, Mariners, D.R., $1,000,000
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There are two names on that list that are relevant when talking about Maitan - Cabrera and Sano. Those are the only guys on that list who had similar reputations at the time of their signing, and I would argue Maitan is even more highly regarded than Sano was.
 
chop2chip said:
Re: highly regarded - If the hyperbole of "best International prospect since Cabrera" is true, then no. But I remember when Michael Ynoa signed and he was tagged as a taller Felix Hernandez. He's yet to make it out of A ball and was quietly traded to the White Sox with Shark.

As for "talked about", this list is pre-Twitter. That's a poor proxy for ability.
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Ynoa is a pitcher. They are notoriously more unstable at a young age than hitters.
 
smootness said:
There are two names on that list that are relevant when talking about Maitan - Cabrera and Sano. Those are the only guys on that list who had similar reputations at the time of their signing, and I would argue Maitan is even more highly regarded than Sano was.
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I've seen "best prospect since Sano"... "reminds me of Miguel Cabrera", but what did you read about Maitan that makes those other names irrelevant?

And while 16 year old pitchers are more volatile than hitters, it's about the only thing more volatile than a 16 year old hitter. You aren't even through puberty yet, how can you project anything meaningful out of that?
 
chop2chip said:
I've seen "best prospect since Sano"... "reminds me of Miguel Cabrera", but what did you read about Maitan that makes those other names irrelevant?

And while 16 year old pitchers are more volatile than hitters, it's about the only thing more volatile than a 16 year old hitter. You aren't even through puberty yet, how can you project anything meaningful out of that?
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Because if a kid is 16 and already has legitimate big-time power and a great swing, that is really important. For pitchers, you're usually trying to project how a guy's stuff will continue to develop...and sometimes it doesn't. For hitters, it's more just about whether or not they can adjust to different levels, not really whether their base skills will continue to progress. Maitan already has the swing and power.

And yes, in numerous places it's been mentioned that Maitan is the best international prospect since either Sano or Cabrera. Specifically, it's been mentioned that international scouts never mention Cabrera in comparisons to kids, but that most have done so with Maitan. He is a different kind of talent, kind of a Bryce Harper, if you will. Harper was on the cover of SI as a 16-year-old, and there was never that much doubt that he would become a very good major league player.
 
chop2chip said:
I've seen "best prospect since Sano"... "reminds me of Miguel Cabrera", but what did you read about Maitan that makes those other names irrelevant?

And while 16 year old pitchers are more volatile than hitters, it's about the only thing more volatile than a 16 year old hitter. You aren't even through puberty yet, how can you project anything meaningful out of that?
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Surely you can see the difference between a run of the mill top IFA prospect in a class and a generational talent. Yes, there's a TON of risk, but when there's this much hype, it's certainly exciting.

Also, I'm not sure him not being fully developed yet is a negative given how advanced he is physically already. That's part of the hype.
 
In baseball, age means a lot. When a guy rakes AA at 19, it's a much better predictor of his future success than a guy who rakes there at 23. This is a similar extension of that. It doesn't mean Maitan is destined to become a star and that nothing can stop that, but it does mean there is a much greater chance that he develops into a very good player than most.
 
mqt said:
Surely you can see the difference between a run of the mill top IFA prospect in a class and a generational talent. Yes, there's a TON of risk, but when there's this much hype, it's certainly exciting.

Also, I'm not sure him not being fully developed yet is a negative given how advanced he is physically already. That's part of the hype.
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I'm sure we agree in general about this. I'm mainly commenting on how even the highest regarded 16 year olds bust far more often than they don't. It's not an absolute declaration that I think Maitan (or Guitierrez and Lazarito) are going to bust. I'm just trying to illustrate that the risk is high.

Now, if he comes over to the states and plays against real competition and looks good, then it eliminates a good deal of that risk immediately. I'm just advocating temperance until then.
 
smootness said:
Because if a kid is 16 and already has legitimate big-time power and a great swing, that is really important. For pitchers, you're usually trying to project how a guy's stuff will continue to develop...and sometimes it doesn't. For hitters, it's more just about whether or not they can adjust to different levels, not really whether their base skills will continue to progress. Maitan already has the swing and power.

And yes, in numerous places it's been mentioned that Maitan is the best international prospect since either Sano or Cabrera. Specifically, it's been mentioned that international scouts never mention Cabrera in comparisons to kids, but that most have done so with Maitan. He is a different kind of talent, kind of a Bryce Harper, if you will. Harper was on the cover of SI as a 16-year-old, and there was never that much doubt that he would become a very good major league player.
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The Harper and Cabrera comparisons are fun, but both of those players have reached the 99th percentile of their ceiling.

I will add that most of the people that have labeled Maitan as a generational talent have yet to see him actually play. When Harper was 16, every amateur scout in the US had taken a look at him. I'm sure Maitan is great and the hype is warranted, but he is huge unknown until he faces real talent.
 
chop2chip said:
The Harper and Cabrera comparisons are fun, but both of those players have reached the 99th percentile of their ceiling.

I will add that most of the people that have labeled Maitan as a generational talent have yet to see him actually play. When Harper was 16, every amateur scout in the US had taken a look at him. I'm sure Maitan is great and the hype is warranted, but he is huge unknown until he faces real talent.
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And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play. I'm not saying he's a fully known entity or that there is no risk. I'm just saying that risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings. Notice that I'm not saying the same about Gutierrez. Maitan is in a different class.
 
smootness said:
And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play. I'm not saying he's a fully known entity or that there is no risk. I'm just saying that risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings. Notice that I'm not saying the same about Gutierrez. Maitan is in a different class.
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"risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings"

Completely agree.

"And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play."

Play or workout? Very different. And if he played, then against what level of competition? That's my point. There are more questions than answers until he's in the professional leagues. Notice that Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc. will not place him on a top 100 list until he finishes a season stateside and scouts get the opportunity to watch him perform against actual competition.
 
chop2chip said:
"risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings"

Completely agree.

"And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play."

Play or workout? Very different. And if he played, then against what level of competition? That's my point. There are more questions than answers until he's in the professional leagues. Notice that Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc. will not place him on a top 100 list until he finishes a season stateside and scouts get the opportunity to watch him perform against actual competition.
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That might have more to do with the fact that he doesn't have a team yet...notice that they do not put any stateside college or high school players on their lists either even though there are probably some that are deserving to be on them.
 
chop2chip said:
"risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings"

Completely agree.

"And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play."

Play or workout? Very different. And if he played, then against what level of competition? That's my point. There are more questions than answers until he's in the professional leagues. Notice that Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc. will not place him on a top 100 list until he finishes a season stateside and scouts get the opportunity to watch him perform against actual competition.
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Haha, what? He isn't in a team's farm system. He isn't even in the United States. So he isn't a minor league prospect.
 
smootness said:
Haha, what? He isn't in a team's farm system. He isn't even in the United States. So he isn't a minor league prospect.
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That's not what I meant (notice how I said "until after he finishes a season stateside"). I'm speaking more to next year's list after he's already found a team. Keith Law said he won't even consider 16 year olds for the list. Based on their history, I expect MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus to do the same.
 
chop2chip said:
That's not what I meant (notice how I said "until after he finishes a season stateside"). I'm speaking more to next year's list after he's already found a team. Keith Law said he won't even consider 16 year olds for the list. Based on their history, I expect MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus to do the same.
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Ok? I still don't really understand how that means anything.
 
smootness said:
Ok? I still don't really understand how that means anything.
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Stop being obtuse. Prospect evaluators don't withhold consideration of 16 year old J2 signees because they are ageists. Its because they see the importance of evaluating the players after having seen them against higher competition. Come on, man. This isn't that difficult of concept to understand.
 
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