Re: highly regarded - If the hyperbole of "best International prospect since Cabrera" is true, then no. But I remember when Michael Ynoa signed and he was tagged as a taller Felix Hernandez. He's yet to make it out of A ball and was quietly traded to the White Sox with Shark.Were any of those busts as highly regarded or as talked about as Maitan?
I wouldn't even be that confident. The list below isn't cherry picked. It's the top signing bonuses ever paid out to J2 signing players as of 2009 (anything post that timeline wouldn't be a fair consideration at this point). Not a lot of hits, plenty of misses.
Michael Ynoa, 16, RHP, 2008, Athletics, D.R., $4,250,000
Miguel Sano, 16, SS, 2009, Twins, D.R., $3,150,000
Gary Sanchez, 16, C, 2009, Yankees, D.R., $3,000,000
Rafael Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Giants, D.R., $2,550,000
Yorman Rodriguez, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, VZA, $2,500,000
Wily Mo Peña, 17, OF, 1999, Yankees, D.R., $2,440,000
Joel Guzman, 16, SS, 2001, Dodgers, D.R., $2,255,000
Angel Villalona, 16, 3B, 2006, Giants, D.R., $2,100,00
Juan Duran, 16, OF, 2008, Reds, D.R., $2,000,000
Adys Portillo, 16, RHP, 2008, Padres, VZA, $2,000,000
Guillermo Pimental, 16, CF, 2009, Mariners, D.R., $2,000,000
Jose Vincio, 16, SS, 2009, Red Sox, D.R., $1,950,000
Miguel Cabrera, 16, IF, 1999, Marlins, VZA, $1,800,000
Jesus Montero, 16, C, 2006, Yankees, VZA, $1,650,000
Jackson Melian, 16, OF, 1996, Yankees, VZA, $1,600,000
Jurickson Profar, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, Curaçao, $1,550,000
Ricardo Aramboles, 16, RHP, 1998, Yankees, D.R., $1,520,000
Luis Sardinas, 16, SS, 2009, Rangers, VZA, 1,500,000
Michael Almanzar, 16, SS, 2007, Red Sox, D.R., $1,500,000
Esmailyn Gonzalez, 16, SS, 2006, Nationals, D.R., $1,400,000
Fernando Martinez, 16, OF, 2005, Mets, D.R., $1,400,000
Willy Aybar, 16, IF, 2000, Dodgers, D.R., $1,400,000
Carlos Triunfel, 16, SS, 2006, Mariners, D.R., $1,300,000
Luis Domoromo, 16, OF, 2008, Padres, VZA, $1,250,000
Juan Urbina, 16, LHP, 2009, Mets, VZA, $1,250,000
Chesler Cuthbert, 16, 3B, 2009, Royals, Nicaragua, $1,200,000
Roberto De la Cruz, 16, 3B, 2008, Cardinals, D.R., $1,100,000
Julio Morban, 16, OF, 2008, Mariners, D.R., $1,100,000
Kelvin De Leon, 16, OF, 2007, Yankees, D.R., $1,100,000
Alvaro Aristy, 17, SS, 2008, Padres, D.R., $1,000,000
Jharmidy De Jesus, 17, SS, 2007, Mariners, D.R., $1,000,000
Re: highly regarded - If the hyperbole of "best International prospect since Cabrera" is true, then no. But I remember when Michael Ynoa signed and he was tagged as a taller Felix Hernandez. He's yet to make it out of A ball and was quietly traded to the White Sox with Shark.
As for "talked about", this list is pre-Twitter. That's a poor proxy for ability.
There are two names on that list that are relevant when talking about Maitan - Cabrera and Sano. Those are the only guys on that list who had similar reputations at the time of their signing, and I would argue Maitan is even more highly regarded than Sano was.
I've seen "best prospect since Sano"... "reminds me of Miguel Cabrera", but what did you read about Maitan that makes those other names irrelevant?
And while 16 year old pitchers are more volatile than hitters, it's about the only thing more volatile than a 16 year old hitter. You aren't even through puberty yet, how can you project anything meaningful out of that?
I've seen "best prospect since Sano"... "reminds me of Miguel Cabrera", but what did you read about Maitan that makes those other names irrelevant?
And while 16 year old pitchers are more volatile than hitters, it's about the only thing more volatile than a 16 year old hitter. You aren't even through puberty yet, how can you project anything meaningful out of that?
Surely you can see the difference between a run of the mill top IFA prospect in a class and a generational talent. Yes, there's a TON of risk, but when there's this much hype, it's certainly exciting.
Also, I'm not sure him not being fully developed yet is a negative given how advanced he is physically already. That's part of the hype.
Because if a kid is 16 and already has legitimate big-time power and a great swing, that is really important. For pitchers, you're usually trying to project how a guy's stuff will continue to develop...and sometimes it doesn't. For hitters, it's more just about whether or not they can adjust to different levels, not really whether their base skills will continue to progress. Maitan already has the swing and power.
And yes, in numerous places it's been mentioned that Maitan is the best international prospect since either Sano or Cabrera. Specifically, it's been mentioned that international scouts never mention Cabrera in comparisons to kids, but that most have done so with Maitan. He is a different kind of talent, kind of a Bryce Harper, if you will. Harper was on the cover of SI as a 16-year-old, and there was never that much doubt that he would become a very good major league player.
The Harper and Cabrera comparisons are fun, but both of those players have reached the 99th percentile of their ceiling.
I will add that most of the people that have labeled Maitan as a generational talent have yet to see him actually play. When Harper was 16, every amateur scout in the US had taken a look at him. I'm sure Maitan is great and the hype is warranted, but he is huge unknown until he faces real talent.
"risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings"And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play. I'm not saying he's a fully known entity or that there is no risk. I'm just saying that risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings. Notice that I'm not saying the same about Gutierrez. Maitan is in a different class.
"risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings"
Completely agree.
"And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play."
Play or workout? Very different. And if he played, then against what level of competition? That's my point. There are more questions than answers until he's in the professional leagues. Notice that Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc. will not place him on a top 100 list until he finishes a season stateside and scouts get the opportunity to watch him perform against actual competition.
"risk is significantly less than it is with almost all other international signings"
Completely agree.
"And basically every international scout has seen Maitan play."
Play or workout? Very different. And if he played, then against what level of competition? That's my point. There are more questions than answers until he's in the professional leagues. Notice that Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, etc. will not place him on a top 100 list until he finishes a season stateside and scouts get the opportunity to watch him perform against actual competition.
Haha, what? He isn't in a team's farm system. He isn't even in the United States. So he isn't a minor league prospect.
That's not what I meant (notice how I said "until after he finishes a season stateside"). I'm speaking more to next year's list after he's already found a team. Keith Law said he won't even consider 16 year olds for the list. Based on their history, I expect MLB.com, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus to do the same.
Ok? I still don't really understand how that means anything.
If I recall correctly Sano was on the tail end of some top 100 lists before he ever played in the States.
Baseball America, KLaw, and Mayo didn't rank him, but Goldstein did for BP. So in that respect, it isn't unprecedented.