How is this garbage supposed to compete in 2-3 years?

[yeezus]

I think a lot of people don't want to see TERRIBLE baseball like they are subject to during a real rebuild and are willing to accept mediocre baseball under the premise that "all you have to do is get to the playoffs and then it is a crapshoot" line of thinking. I think the wildcard has helped foster that approach as well in that you don't have to be good enough to win your division to see post season play.

I, on the other hand, believe that there are times when you have to tear it all down and start fresh. The Braves avoided it for 20+ years, then fought it unwisely for another 5 years, making it ultimately more difficult than it should have been. Sure, teams with unlimited money have an easier road, but even they fall off from their standard from time to time.

IMO, and I've said it before, the Braves are hurt in their rebuild because of timing. The need to talk being competitive in 2017 is directly tied to the opening of the new stadium. FA signings will be difficult as part of the add process because of the limited value of the 2017 FA crop. To truly fill holes and be competitive in 2017 would likely require ML talent acquisition via trade which would require parting with at least some of the minor league talent just acquired which is counterproductive to long term stability. The FO is caught in a quandary of trying a major rebuild at a time of few FA fixes while at least providing the illusion of trying to be competitive. I don't think it can be done for 2017.

I think they should continue to sell off every piece of value and lower the payroll as much as possible, bring in as much young talent as possible, then spend the money on the 2018 FA crop to WISELY fill holes. To me, long term, that's the best answer for the long term health of the franchise. But, do I think that's the way it will go? No because the FO will feel too much pressure from the masses to win now or at least create the illusion of the possibility of winning now.

I agree with all of this.
I'm fine with standing pat this coming offseason and bringing up some guys from the farm next season, and then going bigger in the 2018 offseason. I don't think 2017 will be painful even without big signings in the offseason, and it gives you another year of seeing how your younger prospects are developing. I'll sacrifice a year of mediocre baseball for a better long-term, but many here aren't (and I would guess fans outside of here wouldn't want to, for some reason).

 

[yeezus]

How do you have a team that consists of Heyward (6 WAR), JUpton (3.6 WAR), Donaldson (8.7 WAR), Freeman (3.4 WAR in injured season), Simmons (3.2 WAR) and think it would be "terrible"... Are you crazy?

The pitching would be a problem... but I would have still made the Kimbrel trade, which would have cleared some salary and brought back Wisler. You don't go and make dumb trades like Trevor Cahil. You still do the Gattis trade to get some young players back. You still make the TLS/Viz trade

They could have taken the BJ/Cahil savings and signed someone like Brett Anderson, AJ Burnett, Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana, Edison Volquez

You then have a stacked lineup and rotation that I would describe as "good enough" to get us to the playoffs.

Teheran
Wood
Liriano
Wisler
Wandy/Folty/Perez/Someone else

Not great - but good enough with a good enough offense and defense.

Then the lineup:

C - AJP (2.1 WAR)
1B - Freeman (3.6 WAR)
2b - Peraza - replacement level
SS - Simmons - 3.2 WAR
3B - Donaldson - (8.7 WAR)
LF - Adonis Garcia - (~2 WAR)
CF - Heyward (6) WAR
RF - JUpton - (3.6 WAR)

You're going to win a lot of games with that lineup. You still bring back Folty, Wisler, Ruiz in trades - and you could theoretically use them to acquire a pitcher if needed.

Also - we have the benefit of hindsight now, but the FO probably would have assumed that Mike Minor would have been there. If we brought back Santana - you can't predict the suspension. Same with Viz.

All that said - it's not hard to imagine a scenario where we could have fielded a really good team. The NL east winner won 90 games last year... The team above could have won that many - and may not have needed to win that many with a few more wins against the Mets. Once you get to the playoffs, all bets are off. And teams have won with worse rotations.

lol, it's terrible because the pitching isn't nearly good enough. and you're ASSUMING we're able to land Donaldson which is kind of a joke in and of itself. You're ASSUMING Adonis could be a 2-WAR LF. You're ASSUMING Heyward would be a 6-WAR CF. Teheran and Wood last year (based on what we KNOW) were not suited to be your 1 and 2. Teheran had a bad year and Wood was a 5-inning pitcher. Then you're relying on a rookie or two all year, or a guy like Wandy freakin Rodriguez. What's the WAR on that pitching staff? 5, total?

In your wildest fantasy in which we land Donaldson and everything else works out perfectly, we're still lucky to get into the playoffs. And then we are screwed for the future. You now have one prospect. It's fun to mix hindsight (when it works to your point), fantasy, ideal situations, and assumptions. But when it comes down to it, it's a pipe dream and you simply can't sell the future of your organization for a complete and total pipe dream. You are risking wayyyy too much for too little upside. Having no farm system is not an option for the Braves. It's just not.

 

[sturg33]

How do you have a team that consists of Heyward (6 WAR), JUpton (3.6 WAR), Donaldson (8.7 WAR), Freeman (3.4 WAR in injured season), Simmons (3.2 WAR) and think it would be "terrible"... Are you crazy?

The pitching would be a problem... but I would have still made the Kimbrel trade, which would have cleared some salary and brought back Wisler. You don't go and make dumb trades like Trevor Cahil. You still do the Gattis trade to get some young players back. You still make the TLS/Viz trade

They could have taken the BJ/Cahil savings and signed someone like Brett Anderson, AJ Burnett, Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana, Edison Volquez

You then have a stacked lineup and rotation that I would describe as "good enough" to get us to the playoffs.

Teheran
Wood
Liriano
Wisler
Wandy/Folty/Perez/Someone else

Not great - but good enough with a good enough offense and defense.

Then the lineup:

C - AJP (2.1 WAR)
1B - Freeman (3.6 WAR)
2b - Peraza - replacement level
SS - Simmons - 3.2 WAR
3B - Donaldson - (8.7 WAR)
LF - Adonis Garcia - (~2 WAR)
CF - Heyward (6) WAR
RF - JUpton - (3.6 WAR)

You're going to win a lot of games with that lineup. You still bring back Folty, Wisler, Ruiz in trades - and you could theoretically use them to acquire a pitcher if needed.

Also - we have the benefit of hindsight now, but the FO probably would have assumed that Mike Minor would have been there. If we brought back Santana - you can't predict the suspension. Same with Viz.

All that said - it's not hard to imagine a scenario where we could have fielded a really good team. The NL east winner won 90 games last year... The team above could have won that many - and may not have needed to win that many with a few more wins against the Mets. Once you get to the playoffs, all bets are off. And teams have won with worse rotations.

To further this point... just extrapolating the pitchers

Teheran (1.1 WAR)
Wood (2.6 WAR)
Liriano (3.6 WAR)
Wisler (0.2 WAR)
Wandy/Folty/Perez/Someone else (1 WAR)

So this team here has 37.7 WAR on it - and that's assuming Peraza provides no positive value at 2b (I think defense along makes him a 2 WAR player). So with 37 WAR that puts the team at 86 wins, with no contributions yet from the bullpen or bench.

 

[yeezus]

WAR is wonderful. But the top 3 in your rotation don't go deep into games. You're using your bullpen constantly. You have no depth in the minor leagues in case something goes wrong. It's a terrible freaking idea. AND YOU HAVE NO. FUTURE.

 

[sturg33]

lol, it's terrible because the pitching isn't nearly good enough. and you're ASSUMING we're able to land Donaldson which is kind of a joke in and of itself. You're ASSUMING Adonis could be a 2-WAR LF. You're ASSUMING Heyward would be a 6-WAR CF. Teheran and Wood last year (based on what we KNOW) were not suited to be your 1 and 2. Teheran had a bad year and Wood was a 5-inning pitcher. Then you're relying on a rookie or two all year, or a guy like Wandy freakin Rodriguez. What's the WAR on that pitching staff? 5, total?

In your wildest fantasy in which we land Donaldson and everything else works out perfectly, we're still lucky to get into the playoffs. And then we are screwed for the future. You now have one prospect. It's fun to mix hindsight (when it works to your point), fantasy, ideal situations, and assumptions. But when it comes down to it, it's a pipe dream and you simply can't sell the future of your organization for a complete and total pipe dream. You are risking wayyyy too much for too little upside. Having no farm system is not an option for the Braves. It's just not.

OK... so you asked for a step by step process of how we take the team to the playoffs last year... and I gave it to you, then you just dismiss it all.

I used numbers straight from last year. A platoon of Adonis/KJ would be good in the OF... But if the FO was trying to win last year they could have worked to acquire a CF and keep JUP and Heyward at the corners... I didn't feel like going through potential scenarios. That rotation above provided 8.5 wins last year. And again - without doing the payroll, we could have had more money to spend... All those pitchers I listed were signed to very reasonable contracts.

Remember we had $10M sitting around to acquire Bronson Arroyo. Not trading for Cahil, moving Upton/Kimbrel, not signing Markakis, etc... would have left a good amount of money to spend. I just don't feel like going to figure out how much

 

[yeezus]

if you're going to sacrifice 6-10 years of your franchise, the team should at least look like a juggernaut. the suggestions being made are for wild card teams and relying on pitchers who throw 5-6 innings as your top guys. yikes.

 

[keithlaw]

How do you have a team that consists of Heyward (6 WAR), JUpton (3.6 WAR), Donaldson (8.7 WAR), Freeman (3.4 WAR in injured season), Simmons (3.2 WAR) and think it would be "terrible"... Are you crazy?

The pitching would be a problem... but I would have still made the Kimbrel trade, which would have cleared some salary and brought back Wisler. You don't go and make dumb trades like Trevor Cahil. You still do the Gattis trade to get some young players back. You still make the TLS/Viz trade

They could have taken the BJ/Cahil savings and signed someone like Brett Anderson, AJ Burnett, Jason Hammel, Francisco Liriano, Ervin Santana, Edison Volquez

You then have a stacked lineup and rotation that I would describe as "good enough" to get us to the playoffs.

Teheran

Wood

Liriano

Wisler

Wandy/Folty/Perez/Someone else

Not great - but good enough with a good enough offense and defense.

Then the lineup:

C - AJP (2.1 WAR)

1B - Freeman (3.6 WAR)

2b - Peraza - replacement level

SS - Simmons - 3.2 WAR

3B - Donaldson - (8.7 WAR)

LF - Adonis Garcia - (~2 WAR)

CF - Heyward (6) WAR

RF - JUpton - (3.6 WAR)

You're going to win a lot of games with that lineup. You still bring back Folty, Wisler, Ruiz in trades - and you could theoretically use them to acquire a pitcher if needed.

Also - we have the benefit of hindsight now, but the FO probably would have assumed that Mike Minor would have been there. If we brought back Santana - you can't predict the suspension. Same with Viz.

All that said - it's not hard to imagine a scenario where we could have fielded a really good team. The NL east winner won 90 games last year... The team above could have won that many - and may not have needed to win that many with a few more wins against the Mets. Once you get to the playoffs, all bets are off. And teams have won with worse rotations.

Those players totaled 36.5 fWAR last year, which is equivalent to an 85 win team. So even rosterbating with the benefit of hindsight you and Zito have failed to put together a playoff team.

 

[yeezus]

OK... so you asked for a step by step process of how we take the team to the playoffs last year... and I gave it to you, then you just dismiss it all.

I used numbers straight from last year. A platoon of Adonis/KJ would be good in the OF... But if the FO was trying to win last year they could have worked to acquire a CF and keep JUP and Heyward at the corners... I didn't feel like going through potential scenarios. That rotation above provided 8.5 wins last year. And again - without doing the payroll, we could have had more money to spend... All those pitchers I listed were signed to very reasonable contracts.

Remember we had $10M sitting around to acquire Bronson Arroyo. Not trading for Cahil, moving Upton/Kimbrel, not signing Markakis, etc... would have left a good amount of money to spend. I just don't feel like going to figure out how much

...I "dismiss it all" because I don't believe for a second that team makes the playoffs. And even if it does, you have NO FUTURE. It's a terrible idea and one I'm ecstatic the FO didn't decide on. You've given yourself a one year window with a fringe playoff team and have sacrificed years and years of possibly good baseball for it. it's not worth it. this is mind-blowing.

 

[sturg33]

Those players totaled 36.5 fWAR last year, which is equivalent to an 85 win team. So even rosterbating with the benefit of hindsight you and Zito have failed to put together a playoff team.

Well if you don't plan on having a bullpen or a bench, you'd have a fair point

 

[sturg33]

...I "dismiss it all" because I don't believe for a second that team makes the playoffs. And even if it does, you have NO FUTURE. It's a terrible idea and one I'm ecstatic the FO didn't decide on. You've given yourself a one year window with a fringe playoff team and have sacrificed years and years of possibly good baseball for it. it's not worth it. this is mind-blowing.

Again - you could have made the team competitive even while trading one of Heyward/Upton and invested in the other.

Let's say you do the Heyward trade. You sign Nick and have Shelby. The only prospects we're missing out on at this point would be Fried and Newcomb (neither of which are sure things) and you'd still have Wood and Peraza to offset that.

The team could have remained competitive and still built for the future. Instead, they shipped out so much young talent that we have to pray that who we got back will be as good as them.

 

[yeezus]

Well if you don't plan on having a bullpen or a bench, you'd have a fair point

The best bullpen in the NL last year put up a 5.1 WAR. And we would've been FAR from the best, especially when only one of your starters throws over 200 innings and the backend is terrible.

 

[sturg33]

Again - you could have made the team competitive even while trading one of Heyward/Upton and invested in the other.

Let's say you do the Heyward trade. You sign Nick and have Shelby. The only prospects we're missing out on at this point would be Fried and Newcomb (neither of which are sure things) and you'd still have Wood and Peraza to offset that.

The team could have remained competitive and still built for the future. Instead, they shipped out so much young talent that we have to pray that who we got back will be as good as them.

Let's go down this route. Let's trade Kimbrel (which I would have done in any instance)... let's trade Gattis. And let's trade Heyward. Let's sign Nick the stick.

C - AJP (2.1 WAR)
1B - Freeman (3.6 WAR)
2b - Peraza - replacement level
SS - Simmons - 3.2 WAR
3B - Donaldson - (8.7 WAR)
LF - Upton (3.6 WAR)
CF - Someone...
RF - Markakis (1.6 WAR)

Shelby - 3.4 WAR
Teheran (1.1 WAR)
Wood (2.6 WAR)
Liriano (3.6 WAR)
Wisler (0.2 WAR)

That right there is an 82 win team, with assumptions of replacement level in CF and 2B... and no bullpen or bench. And we still have the ability to turn Shelby into Swason/Inciarte/Blair. We still have Jenkins, Folty, Wisler, Viz... and we still have the option to deal Simmons for Newcomb.

And before you start picking apart this and doing your usual disrespectful routine, realize this was a quick thought experiment which essentially proves we could have remained competitive and still rebuilt our future.

 

[keithlaw]

Well if you don't plan on having a bullpen or a bench, you'd have a fair point

A bench of Cunningham, Kelly Johnson, Bethancourt, Goose, and CJ would be slightly above replacement level. And last years bullpen + Walden, Shreve, and Varvaro would still be slightly below replacement level.

 

[keithlaw]

Let's go down this route. Let's trade Kimbrel (which I would have done in any instance)... let's trade Gattis. And let's trade Heyward. Let's sign Nick the stick.

C - AJP (2.1 WAR)
1B - Freeman (3.6 WAR)
2b - Peraza - replacement level
SS - Simmons - 3.2 WAR
3B - Donaldson - (8.7 WAR)
LF - Upton (3.6 WAR)
CF - Someone...
RF - Markakis (1.6 WAR)

Shelby - 3.4 WAR
Teheran (1.1 WAR)
Wood (2.6 WAR)
Liriano (3.6 WAR)
Wisler (0.2 WAR)

That right there is an 82 win team, with assumptions of replacement level in CF and 2B... and no bullpen or bench. And we still have the ability to turn Shelby into Swason/Inciarte/Blair. We still have Jenkins, Folty, Wisler, Viz... and we still have the option to deal Simmons for Newcomb.

And before you start picking apart this and doing your usual disrespectful routine, realize this was a quick thought experiment which essentially proves we could have remained competitive and still rebuilt our future.

Only with the magical thinking of adding a 9 win player for nothing.

 

[sturg33]

A bench of Cunningham, Kelly Johnson, Bethancourt, Goose, and CJ would be slightly above replacement level. And last years bullpen + Walden, Shreve, and Varvaro would still be slightly below replacement level.

Well I'm making the assumption that the team would have been more aggressive in feeling these holes rather than punt

 

[50PoundHead]

I think a lot of people don't want to see TERRIBLE baseball like they are subject to during a real rebuild and are willing to accept mediocre baseball under the premise that "all you have to do is get to the playoffs and then it is a crapshoot" line of thinking. I think the wildcard has helped foster that approach as well in that you don't have to be good enough to win your division to see post season play.

I, on the other hand, believe that there are times when you have to tear it all down and start fresh. The Braves avoided it for 20+ years, then fought it unwisely for another 5 years, making it ultimately more difficult than it should have been. Sure, teams with unlimited money have an easier road, but even they fall off from their standard from time to time.

IMO, and I've said it before, the Braves are hurt in their rebuild because of timing. The need to talk being competitive in 2017 is directly tied to the opening of the new stadium. FA signings will be difficult as part of the add process because of the limited value of the 2017 FA crop. To truly fill holes and be competitive in 2017 would likely require ML talent acquisition via trade which would require parting with at least some of the minor league talent just acquired which is counterproductive to long term stability. The FO is caught in a quandary of trying a major rebuild at a time of few FA fixes while at least providing the illusion of trying to be competitive. I don't think it can be done for 2017.

I think they should continue to sell off every piece of value and lower the payroll as much as possible, bring in as much young talent as possible, then spend the money on the 2018 FA crop to WISELY fill holes. To me, long term, that's the best answer for the long term health of the franchise. But, do I think that's the way it will go? No because the FO will feel too much pressure from the masses to win now or at least create the illusion of the possibility of winning now.

This is all true, but there's a right way to turn a roster over, have some veteran leadership, and don't thrust young players into roles they simply aren't ready to assume. The thing that angered me about last year's collapse after the trade deadline is that the team played extremely stupid baseball in addition to their obvious lack of talent. I always harp on the need for a somewhat reliable bullpen because I think you do want to teach younger players how to win and if everyone does a collective sigh and shoulder slump when the starter hits the showers, things can really snowball and bad habits can develop.

Easy for me because I'm old, but I never bought the 2017 thing for a second. It's probably going to be 2019 or 2020 when this team is ready to contend for a playoff spot.

 

[yeezus]

Well I'm making the assumption that the team would have been more aggressive in feeling these holes rather than punt

you're making a ton of assumptions and picturing it as if everything would work out perfectly, which is precisely why it's a terrible idea.

and you still have little-to-no future, even in the BEST case scenario.

 

[sturg33]

Only with the magical thinking of adding a 9 win player for nothing.

Wanna hear something funny... I decided to look at the Royals opening day lineup from last year (so it did not include Zobrist or Cueto - who was pretty awful for them).

The starting lineup produced 19.1 WAR
The starting rotation produced 6.5 WAR

Total... 25.6 WAR

The team I put above had 34 WAR, with no CF or 2B

 

[sturg33]

you're making a ton of assumptions and picturing it as if everything would work out perfectly, which is precisely why it's a terrible idea.

and you still have little-to-no future, even in the BEST case scenario.

I don't understand your second point... the only trades I don't make are bringing in Fried, Smith and Newcomb... but I keep Simmons, Wood, JUpton and Peraza... how is that not better for the future?

 

[goldfly]

but we wouldn't have been there again this year. what was your optimal plan, if i may ask?

i don't have one really

just saying i don't see why the tear down (that isn't a total tear down) and rebuild was really that necessary to do after that one bad season

we were moving to a new stadium that was told to us that would give the braves more money to be able to keep players and is also why we did the extensions to some

if we were going to expand payroll etc for the new stadium, we could have floated an already winning team and added to it through free agency and spending it seems to me

but our rebuild makes no sense (to me) with saying Freeman is untouchable and signing of Nick and the trading for Olivera etc etc