Around MLB 2016 style

dak said:
I will admit . . . I was skeptical of the FO's plan to accumulate a ton of pitching, but it may turn out that we timed the market well. We've already pulled off a miracle with Miller, and Teheran could command a premium if he keeps up his current pace. Would prefer to keep Teheran, but the market will be so starved for quality pitching that we need to keep those phone lines open.
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Don't admit that just yet, let's wait and see if the FO is smart enough to hold out for great returns first. Then we can do the "I will admit . . ." I don't like counting chickens before they hatch. Shoot look at what we might of got for Grilli last year and now probably nothing. So even if that is possible we either seem to have bad luck or wait too long outside of that perfect storm trade with Miller. May the perfect storm come again soon!
 
Heyward said:
They have a pretty solid core, especially the rotation.

Strasburg, Scherzer, Ross, Gio/Roark, Giolito is pretty nasty going forward.

Besides, if he blows out his arm again, no chance of a good payday.
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Stras is the only one I like in that group right now. Giolito is just as much of a bust candidate as the next pitcher.. Ross could be good.. maybe #3.. Max contract is going to kill them, and Gio is nothing anymore.. Tanner could be a good one.. But this completely hamstrings them in not being able to sign Harper..They will have Werthless money coming off the books after 2017.. but by then, they will need so many pieces..
 
Garmel said:
I think we'll also need a 3rd baseman because I'm not sold on Ruiz being ready next year. Perhaps a placeholder like Freese or Prado?
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I agree, I just wouldn't pay as much for them as I would to get a good catcher. I'd prefer Prado over Freese but I wanted Freese this year to sell in a trade later. Prado has been very good defensively at third for Marlins and obviously having a great year at the plate too. I hope he won't cost more than he's worth due to his strong season. So as long as the price is right I'd bring him back home for a placeholder at third.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
one thing about Stras off the market.. Braves pitchers (eh hem..JT) looks a lot better now...
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So does Chacin, esp. if we're seriously considering trading JT at the deadline. If we trade JT we need to re-sign Chacin as there is nothing on the free agent market that won't cost more while giving same or worse value. Plus need one vet in rotation so either trade Chacin and keep JT, or trade JT and keep Chacin. I think they're leaning towards trading both however. I don't think they think much of Chacin, just got him due to him being cheap etc. I also think they're wrong to think that way.
 
Braves1976 said:
So does Chacin, esp. if we're seriously considering trading JT at the deadline. If we trade JT we need to re-sign Chacin as there is nothing on the free agent market that won't cost more while giving same or worse value. Plus need one vet in rotation so either trade Chacin and keep JT, or trade JT and keep Chacin. I think they're leaning towards trading both however. I don't think they think much of Chacin, just got him due to him being cheap etc. I also think they're wrong to think that way.
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I could see them keeping Chacin.. they will need another Vet to hold down a spot for the first few weeks/months while prospects continue to develop. I don't think we will have much ready to start next year outside of Blair/Wisler/Folty.. Gant could be and Ellis as well. But I wouldn't mind another vet just in case.. Sims/Jenkins/Newcomb won't be ready IMO..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I could see them keeping Chacin.. they will need another Vet to hold down a spot for the first few weeks/months while prospects continue to develop. I don't think we will have much ready to start next year outside of Blair/Wisler/Folty.. Gant could be and Ellis as well. But I wouldn't mind another vet just in case.. Sims/Jenkins/Newcomb won't be ready IMO..
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I keep looking at the free agent starting pitchers for this coming off-season looking for a good value buy among the terrible list and I don't see enough to not keep one of JT or Chacin. There is almost nothing and what little there is will probably cost more than worth just due to such a thin pitching market. That being the case if we want a shot (even if a long shot) at being good next year, you keep JT or Chacin instead of trading both.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Stras is the only one I like in that group right now. Giolito is just as much of a bust candidate as the next pitcher.. Ross could be good.. maybe #3.. Max contract is going to kill them, and Gio is nothing anymore.. Tanner could be a good one.. But this completely hamstrings them in not being able to sign Harper..They will have Werthless money coming off the books after 2017.. but by then, they will need so many pieces..
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Sure, its still a solid rotation.

And Gio has a 2.1ish ERA in 6 starts, not sure i'd say thats nothing anymore.

They can sign Harper, but he'd be stupid not to at least test FA when that time comes.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Stras is the only one I like in that group right now. Giolito is just as much of a bust candidate as the next pitcher.. Ross could be good.. maybe #3.. Max contract is going to kill them, and Gio is nothing anymore.. Tanner could be a good one.. But this completely hamstrings them in not being able to sign Harper..They will have Werthless money coming off the books after 2017.. but by then, they will need so many pieces..
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This doesn't change their ability to sign Harper. Its a risky sign, but I think you are willing to sign Strasburg to that deal because he would probably get a lot more on the open market considering the other options and his numbers over the past 30-40 starts.

They are still going to have money to spend though. Werth (22 million) comes off next year. Gio (12 million) comes off after this year. Papelbon (11 million) comes off after this year. Plus, they are going to end up getting additional money from the Orioles for the MASN deal.

Ross is an interesting player. He's now had 20 starts and 2.97 ERA, 3.20 FIP. I'm not sure what to think of him, but he should be a good, cheap long term piece for them along with Giolito. That gives them 2 expensive starters and 2 cheap starters depending on what they do for the 5th spot (re-sign Gonzolaz, give to Roark or Cole, sign a different FA?)

Im not sure how Gio is nothing anymore. He's a very solid middle of the rotation starter on a very good contract.

The problem with the Nats is Werty/Zim have to get going because I don't see them every replacing those 2 until FA. Once Turner gets the call, he helps them at SS.

The team is kind of hard to figure out. The pitching has been outstanding. The hitting has let them down, but how much of it is batted ball luck (or lack thereof)?

Harper .239 BABIP
Werth .217 BABIP
Espinosa .250 BABIP
Rendon .238 BABIP
Revere .176 BABIP
Zimmerman .282 BABIP
Taylor .230 BABIP
Murphy .424 BABIP
Ramos .380 BABIP

Last year there were only 5 qualified hitters with a BABIP under .250 and 23 with under .275. I expect the pitching to regress a pit (Ross/Roark) and the hitting to improve a lot.
 
gilesfan said:
This doesn't change their ability to sign Harper. Its a risky sign, but I think you are willing to sign Strasburg to that deal because he would probably get a lot more on the open market considering the other options and his numbers over the past 30-40 starts.

They are still going to have money to spend though. Werth (22 million) comes off next year. Gio (12 million) comes off after this year. Papelbon (11 million) comes off after this year. Plus, they are going to end up getting additional money from the Orioles for the MASN deal.

Ross is an interesting player. He's now had 20 starts and 2.97 ERA, 3.20 FIP. I'm not sure what to think of him, but he should be a good, cheap long term piece for them along with Giolito. That gives them 2 expensive starters and 2 cheap starters depending on what they do for the 5th spot (re-sign Gonzolaz, give to Roark or Cole, sign a different FA?)

Im not sure how Gio is nothing anymore. He's a very solid middle of the rotation starter on a very good contract.

The problem with the Nats is Werty/Zim have to get going because I don't see them every replacing those 2 until FA. Once Turner gets the call, he helps them at SS.

The team is kind of hard to figure out. The pitching has been outstanding. The hitting has let them down, but how much of it is batted ball luck (or lack thereof)?

Harper .239 BABIP
Werth .217 BABIP
Espinosa .250 BABIP
Rendon .238 BABIP
Revere .176 BABIP
Zimmerman .282 BABIP
Taylor .230 BABIP
Murphy .424 BABIP
Ramos .380 BABIP

Last year there were only 5 qualified hitters with a BABIP under .250 and 23 with under .275. I expect the pitching to regress a pit (Ross/Roark) and the hitting to improve a lot.
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they have 70 million committed to 3 players come time to sign Harper. you have to hope that those three players are healthy and producing to have any chance. They are sitting around 150 million right now.. what is there max.. IDK.. but I know 150 won't be enough to sign Harper and still fill a competitive team..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
they have 70 million committed to 3 players come time to sign Harper. you have to hope that those three players are healthy and producing to have any chance. They are sitting around 150 million right now.. what is there max.. IDK.. but I know 150 won't be enough to sign Harper and still fill a competitive team..
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The max in 3 years? Who knows, 200 million? They have been creative about how they have signed the guys; deferring money and/or paying how huge signing bonuses upfront. There is no salary cap. I would say Harper has a good chance of leaving, but moreso due to NYY/Bos offering something ridiculous and with the ability to make even more from a marketing perspective. The Nats can afford him; whether it is the right move or not is a different story.
 
gilesfan said:
The max in 3 years? Who knows, 200 million? They have been creative about how they have signed the guys; deferring money and/or paying how huge signing bonuses upfront. There is no salary cap. I would say Harper has a good chance of leaving, but moreso due to NYY/Bos offering something ridiculous and with the ability to make even more from a marketing perspective. The Nats can afford him; whether it is the right move or not is a different story.
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looks like they deferred a lot of money again..
 
Anyone following what JUp is doing in Detroit? He's been beyond dreadful. And his BABIP is sky high. We may have dodged a bullet by him not signing with us.
 
yeezus said:
Anyone following what JUp is doing in Detroit? He's been beyond dreadful. And his BABIP is sky high. We may have dodged a bullet by him not signing with us.
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He's really struggled with fastballs this year. Basically, the only way to be a great hitter is to be able to murder fastballs. As soon as you lose that ability, you don't have a chance.

With that said, JUp has always been this type of player. We were just used to him getting off to great starts before he went into his annual mid-season funk.
 
yeezus said:
Anyone following what JUp is doing in Detroit? He's been beyond dreadful. And his BABIP is sky high. We may have dodged a bullet by him not signing with us.
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most of the 'core' that we traded away has been dreadful this year.. BJ might be doing the best of all the hitters..

But Tron is hurt/ Heyward having typical slow start/ JUp has been awful on a great team/ Craig has been good IMO/ Meds is not off to a good start/ Beachy and Minor are still hurt/recovering/ Gattis is in the minors 'Ramping' up... too bad we didn't keep the group together huh..
 
chop2chip said:
He's really struggled with fastballs this year. Basically, the only way to be a great hitter is to be able to murder fastballs. As soon as you lose that ability, you don't have a chance.

With that said, JUp has always been this type of player. We were just used to him getting off to great starts before he went into his annual mid-season funk.
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Yeah, just a little more streaky that the typical player. At 28, I cant imagine he doesn't turn it around. Reggie Sanders?
 
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