Heyman on Braves' trade chips and Olivera

[Preacher]

Heyward:
2012 121 wRC+ at $565,000
2013 120 wRC+ at $3,650,00
2014 110 wRC+ at $4,500,00
2015 121 wRC+ at $7,800,000
2016 77 wRC+ at $17,500,000

Everybody would take Jason Heyward on this team right now gladly, that's never been the argument - the question has always been does it make sense to pay that much for the Braves to a guy who isn't an elite bat and has a lot of value tied up in defensive metrics.

 

[yeezus]

We have Markakis, whose signing yeezus apparently thinks was not a mistake. His recent wRC+ numbers:

2012 126
2013 87
2014 106
2015 107

AND, to add to what I said, I was completely fine with Heyward's production in RF, all around, at his previous price points. At $23M, on this team, he's too risky for me. why is that such a crazy concept?

 

[Carp]

I'm clamoring for elite players. Heyward is that... I'm hopeful Swanson/Albies become that.

But I don't see any elite hitters in our system anywhere. And if the expectation is that Swanson will be a Kris Bryant type hitter... many will be very disappointed

Heyward is hardly an elite player, unless you have a very liberal definition of "elite." But just because he isn't elite doesn't mean he isn't a very good overall player. But a cash strapped team can't afford to spend 23 million per year on a guy like him.

 

[nsacpi]

oh, man.

I said, even at the time, I wasn't thrilled with the signing, but understood the logic. how many times have I said that now? that's about as far as I've gone in support of the signing.

You don't think it was a mistake?

 

[gilesfan]

AND, to add to what I said, I was completely fine with Heyward's production in RF, all around, at his previous price points. At $23M, on this team, he's too risky for me. why is that such a crazy concept?

How does that risk assessment compare (what makes Heyward risky?) to signing a much older, injured player for a 4/44 million dollar contract?

 

[gilesfan]

Heyward is hardly an elite player, unless you have a very liberal definition of "elite." But just because he isn't elite doesn't mean he isn't a very good overall player. But a cash strapped team can't afford to spend 23 million per year on a guy like him.

What type of players should the Braves spend 23 million per year on?

 

[nsacpi]

AND, to add to what I said, I was completely fine with Heyward's production in RF, all around, at his previous price points. At $23M, on this team, he's too risky for me. why is that such a crazy concept?

Actually on that part I'm in agreement. I don't think his contract is a terrible one. But it carries risk like all long-term deals, and with the opt out there is limited upside for the club. The ideal with Heyward (and any promising young player) is you extent them before they get within a year or two of free agency. Those kinds of deals have good risk-return properties for clubs. But that ship has sailed.

 

[zbhargrove]

The average RF offensive production:

2012 104 wRC+
2013 105 wRC+
2014 100 wRC+
2015 107 wRC+

Heyward:
2012 121 wRC+
2013 120 wRC+
2014 110 wRC+
2015 121 wRC+

That is even ignoring defense. You really wouldn't take a RF that hit significantly better than the average of his peers?

He's fine as a roll player... he's not the difference maker we desperately need in our lineup, which is what he was supposed to be. Not to mention what he's getting paid now.

 

[nsacpi]

he's not the difference maker we desperately need in our lineup, which is what he was supposed to be.

It is such an obvious thing that I hesitate to state it, but evaluations of any player need to set aside long ago expectations about what kind of player he was supposed to be. Besides different people I'm sure held different expectations as to what kind of player he was going to be.

As a rule (which I will break with a generational type talent) I wouldn't project any minor league player to be anything more than a 2 WAR player at the major league level. Relative to those expectations (mine) Heyward hasn't done badly.

 

[gilesfan]

He's fine as a roll player... he's not the difference maker we desperately need in our lineup, which is what he was supposed to be. Not to mention what he's getting paid now.

What do you define as a role player and what type of contracts do role players get?

 

[chop2chip]

I just hope Heyward's defense collapses on him and he starts hitting 35 home runs a year, so that we maybe reach a point where both sides can agree on his value and let dead dogs lie.

If ever there was such thing as a circular argument...

 

[Russ2dollas]

He's fine as a roll player... he's not the difference maker we desperately need in our lineup, which is what he was supposed to be. Not to mention what he's getting paid now.

I wouldn't use avg wrc+ when we are talking a free agent contract. If you are paying FA premium I think you'd want to compare to some higher sub set.

That said, you'd think a team would compare offensive production per dollar for the FA in question to their best alternative.

I really think Heyward's contract is going to come out roses unless he has a massive injury or gets Upton/Uggla syndrome.

 

[Preacher]

getting back to the topic; d'Aarnuad is a guy we might be able to flip for something, still have Kelly Johnson and Ogando. Frenchy can be a very useful bench bat for a contender against lefties.

Maybe see a deal where we package a couple of those guys to get a decent prospect back. Remember; it didn't take a whole bunch to get Gant/Whalen.

The team would love to trade AJ/Aybar/Bud Norris -- but good luck with that.

 

[sturg33]

He's fine as a roll player... he's not the difference maker we desperately need in our lineup, which is what he was supposed to be. Not to mention what he's getting paid now.

As stated earlier... the year before he signed the contract - he was the 13th best offensive player in a league that includes 15 teams - or 120 everyday players... So he was in the top 11% of the league as far as offense is concerned.

Not bad for a role player

 

[JohnAdcox]

Yeah - everyone's favorite whipping boy JHey was an elite hitting prospect in the minors at a very young age... and now everyone says he's not a good enough hitter

And Albies and Swanson rare both nowhere near on the level offensively as Heyward was

I don't think anyone ... and I include the wider fan base here ... are expecting supermen. We're expecting above average D and productive at bats, with some decent baserunning. A huge step up, in other words.

 

[thewupk]

Heyward:

2012 121 wRC+ at $565,000

2013 120 wRC+ at $3,650,00

2014 110 wRC+ at $4,500,00

2015 121 wRC+ at $7,800,000

2016 77 wRC+ at $17,500,000

Everybody would take Jason Heyward on this team right now gladly, that's never been the argument - the question has always been does it make sense to pay that much for the Braves to a guy who isn't an elite bat and has a lot of value tied up in defensive metrics.

Braves gave 11 million per year to a guy who averaged 106 WRC+. You have to understand that the money Heyward is making is not elite/superstar money. A player who can provide a 120 WRC+ is certainly worth a high teens salary right now.

 

[gilesfan]

Braves gave 11 million per year to a guy who averaged 106 WRC+. You have to understand that the money Heyward is making is not elite/superstar money. A player who can provide a 120 WRC+ is certainly worth a high teens salary right now.

Good point.

Cespedes got a 25 mil/year contract and is a career 123 wRC+.

Upton got a 22+ mil/year contract and is a career 118 wRC+

Gordon got a 18 mil/year contract an dis a career 112 wRC+

Rasmus got a 15.8 mil/year contract and is a career 106 wRC+

 

[Preacher]

Good point.

Cespedes got a 25 mil/year contract and is a career 123 wRC+.
Upton got a 22+ mil/year contract and is a career 118 wRC+
Gordon got a 18 mil/year contract an dis a career 112 wRC+
Rasmus got a 15.8 mil/year contract and is a career 106 wRC+

Heyward's annual value is about $23 million, so quite a bit higher than a guy like Alex Gordon or Colby Rasmus.

 

[Preacher]

Braves gave 11 million per year to a guy who averaged 106 WRC+. You have to understand that the money Heyward is making is not elite/superstar money. A player who can provide a 120 WRC+ is certainly worth a high teens salary right now.

I've never loved the Markakis deal either.

 

[Enscheff]

Braves gave 11 million per year to a guy who averaged 106 WRC+. You have to understand that the money Heyward is making is not elite/superstar money. A player who can provide a 120 WRC+ is certainly worth a high teens salary right now.

The Braves should be able to move Markakis if they want. Dave Cameron did a good job breaking down all the teams that might want to upgrade their OF, and the lack of trade options to do so:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/the-coming-shortage-of-available-outfielders/