bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
when combined with one of the best gloves and baserunning in MLB he was indeed an elite player.
Heyman on Braves' trade chips and Olivera
- Thread starter dak
- Start date
when combined with one of the best gloves and baserunning in MLB he was indeed an elite player.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
I would beat a team of Bautistas with a team of Heywards, and it really wouldn't be that close. I expect the Heywards would win the division by double digits. It is dishonest argument to focus only on offense and hand wave away the defense and baserunning as it is EQUALLY as likely that WAR UNDERRATES defense as it could overvalue it.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
This is a goofy argument but I'll play:
I will assume that you aren't saying literally a Bautista at every base versus a Heyward at every base since that makes no sense - who knows if Heyward can catch (and produce the same WAR) or that Bautista can play 2B? So, I will assume what you mean is that you will take position players with Heyward's WAR earned at the same ratio as Heyward but adjusted for his position and the same for Bautista. So, if Heyward hit 13 HR last year then all positions do that and if Heyward developed a significant portion of his WAR from baserunning and defense, then each position does so at a similar rate, and the same for Bautista.
So, you have a team of lighter hitting, good base running excellent defenders against a team of power hitting, ok base running average defenders (or at least passable).
Heyward hit .293 last year with 13 HR, 56 BB and stole 23 bases getting caught 3 times combined with his base running and defensive value for a WAR of 6.5. His career 162 game average is .265, 18 HR, 73 BB, 17 steals and caught 5 times.
Bautista last year hit .256, hit 40HR, BB 110 and stole 8 bases while being caught 2 times for a WAR of 5.1. His career 162 game average is .250, 33HR, BB 93, 7SB with 3CS.
So, using their 162 game average in HR (HR cannot be defensed) Heyward totals 18x14=252 runs, assuming a team of 14 position players, (if you want to limit to the 8 on field guys then 18x8=144 runs). Bautista totals 33X14=462 runs or (33x8=264). The run total assumes ALL solo HR.
But, but wait! what about if they aren't solo HR, you ask? Well, Bautista's career OBP is .368 and Heyward's is .351, so Bautista theoretically has more guys on base when the HR is hit making the run difference even more pronounced. But, you say the Heyward team has superior defense and would allow less OBP that the Bautista team would allow? Fair enough. But, remember that Bautista draws walks at a significantly higher rate than the Heyward team and you can't defense walks. And the Heyward team is hitting against a team full of adequate defenders which probably balances any gains the Heyward team might get from the +/- effect of having a balanced defense to face instead of the ups and downs faced nightly in real ML play. And remember that Bautista by definition hits the ball harder and has more fly balls which has an effect on the fielders.
I think it's pretty easy to see that given identical pitching staffs, the Bautista's easily win because of the indefensible nature of HR and BB and the significant difference in OBP. Heyward probably closes the gap a little by taking the extra base and stealing at a little better rate. But those actions don't necessarily guarantee a run.
For instance: Heyward 1 hits a single. Heyward two strikes out. Heyward 3 BB. Heyward 1 and 3 double steal. Heyward four grounds out to short. Heyward 5 grounds out to short. Heywards: 0 runs
Bautista 1 K's. Bautista 2 K's. Bautista 3 hits a HR. Bautista's: 1 run
But what if Heyward 4 grounds out and Heyward 1 takes home with Heyward 3 staying at 2B? OK, what if Bautista 2 walks instead of K's?
HR Power is guaranteed production. The batter drives himself (at least) home.
The only way the argument works that Heyward is more valuable than Bautista is if you are banking on age and potential.
Joey Bats has actually been worth more since 2010 than Heyward. Sure, some of that is due to age difference, but Heyward hasn't exactly progressed any offensively since his rookie season.
I'll take my team of Joey Bats gladly over you're Heyward's. But still you miss the point, which is that a guy like Joey Bats (ignoring age) is a MUCH better fit for a mid market team with a lack offensive talent.
Sure. If we are talking about his 2010, 2011, or 2014 season. I would take those over Heyward. However in todays market those seasons will cost you well over 30 million a year. But I would not take his 2015 season over Heywards 2015 season. A team full of 2015 Heywards would beat a team full of 2015 Bautistas.
Given two players with similar WAR, I would take the player with more of that coming from offense. The catch is you will pay dearly for it (especially on the open market). Is a price difference of nearly 10 million worth it?
Perfect Cell
Lynchburg Prospect
Cleaveland and Sanfran both need OF id deal MArkakis for whatever and Frenchy.
Teheran deal him only if you get a legit bat in return a real haul. He doesnt have to be dealt
KJ, Beckham deal those 2. AJ if interest and the whole pen id deal Johnson and Vizcaino today. Sell sell sell.
Teheran deal him only if you get a legit bat in return a real haul. He doesnt have to be dealt
KJ, Beckham deal those 2. AJ if interest and the whole pen id deal Johnson and Vizcaino today. Sell sell sell.
Deester11
Well-known member
I forgot what this thread was about for a minute or wondered if we were trying to get Heyward back....but yeah, Teheran doesn't have to be dealt. Our pitching is not so deep that we can trade him away IMHO. With Folty having what seems to be an annual elbow issue (minor or not), Williams Perez..what you see is what you get and some of the pitching prospects experiencing the ups and downs of youth, we NEED to get a bat if we trade Teheran.
Coppy says we're going with young pitchers and I think we need to shed the veterans and go young. If we're going to lose continuously, why not add some mlb experience? Fine line though. You need a good veteran presence somewhere. No one will trade for Olivera. Just don't see that.
Perfect Cell
Lynchburg Prospect
Im not against dealing Teheran, hes not untouchable. Love the kid, but i loved Heyward, and Kimbrel and Javy Lopez too. We need bats, id love to get Jaiver Baez from chicago to plug at 3B.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I don't see the Cubs as a fit right now unless they just run into a string of injuries. If they did have injury and needed Teheran, I would ask for Schwarber. Even if he never works out at catcher (he won't) or left field (he might), he certainly could be a 1B which helps if you trade Freeman. I'm thinking Teheran for Schwarber and OF Eloy Jimenez. If Schwarber weren't injured, I don't think you could get him for Teheran straight up. But, assuming the Cubs are in a bind, and Schwarber doesn't figure into this season anyway, and there is the injury risk of how well he will come back, and does he have a position in Chicago, and Teheran is the best pitcher available, I think the above trade might be possible.
The other trade I like would be with Colorado for Dahl and McMahon. McMahon has no place to play in Colorado, so he has to be available at some price. Dahl is blocked right now but would be more difficult for them to give up. The problem with Colorado is that they aren't going to win and don't seem to be in any big hurry to do so. They may be willing to just sit back and let 2016 go by without making any moves. In that case, a Teheran deal to them is probably more likely in the offseason.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I would be wanting much more than Dahl and McMahon for Teheran... they may be both top 50 prospects, but barely. And I doubt McMahon will be this year after struggling so bad. He still has a ways to go. I don't want another struggling third base prospect. We have enough of those already. That would not be good value for Teheran. You need legit MLB ready talent or top 10 type prospects and Dahl and McMahon are far from that.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Shields looks to be going to the White Sox... Teheran's value may never be higher than this years deadline.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
Pretty tepid return, given the Padres are reportedly paying $27-30 million of the remaining (assuming Shields doesn't exercise opt-outs) $56 million. Before his previous start, Shields had been pitching pretty solidly in 2016.
Still, given the major cost/age/performance disparity, not sure this deal really forms much of a useful baseline for what Teheran might fetch.
Still, given the major cost/age/performance disparity, not sure this deal really forms much of a useful baseline for what Teheran might fetch.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
zbhargrove
Well-known member
It's about what I expected for Shields... Expensive, has been terrible lately, he's 34... All playing in the best pitchers park in the league. But he's likely the biggest name that was possibly available besides Teheran as a SP... And with him gone and Coppy saying they'd have to be blown away I would think we would either get a huge package or keep him. His contract, ability, and age is exponentially more valuable than Shields.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I'd only trade Teheran if a team overpaid for him at this point. Hope Coppy is smart enough to know how big a value Teheran brings with his contract and track record. I could see a team getting desperate enough to overpay for Teheran in this market. Possibly as big an overpay as with Miller if Coppy is smart and doesn't want to deal him. That will make teams work harder to get him if desperate for starting pitching.
jpx7
Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is.
If by "lately" you mean "in his previous start", then yes: he's been terrible "lately". Otherwise, his 2016 had been a slight improvement on his 2015, when looking at the metrics, and his 2015 wasn't terrible either. Honestly, given the small sample this year, I'd be more concerned that he was merely decent last year, considering the park that was his home and the home-park to which he's moving. Nevertheless, on the balance, he's hardly been "terrible," purely in terms of production.
The contract is another matter entirely—but it doesn't look half-bad, for the White Sox, considering they're only paying half of it. If he can maintain his 2015-16 FIP with Chicago, he'll be an alright value for the South Siders—particularly given that he throws a lot of innings and they're somewhat desperate to avoid overexposing their bullpen. I would've thought that—in light of all those details—Shields merited a bit more than a 26-year-old RHP non-entity and a 17-year-old who's never played an inning of professional baseball (though it seems, given comments following his last and final start for San Diego, that Padres ownership was pretty desperate to have Shields gone, value-be-damned).
Which is why I noted that—contrary to some previous suggestions—I don't think this Shields deal will really be relevant at all to Teheran's market. Indeed, Shield's situation with San Diego is so radically different that I don't really think we can look at this deal and gauge anything about Teheran's potential value.
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
I agree with all of the above. The only thing is, I do believe it slightly affects the Teheran market. It thins a pitching market that is already barren, and as a bonus the pitcher went to the team with my least favorite options of prospects. If Boston had just traded for him id be much less pleased.