2016 DRAFT Signing Tracker ... FINAL, JULY 15

[Russ2dollas]

The strategy was fine but the avoidance of hitters continues to baffle me

I don't think they avoided hitters, I think they went BPA. IF rumors are true the Reds stole our draft. That gives some credence to the idea of tanking this year and getting the first pick. One pick up and we likely take a college 3B who could be in MLB in late 17 but prob 18.

I'm on board with the plan. Hated Markakis and Olivera but they've gotten more right than wrong. The problem is that I think we need another big deal that gets us 2/3 of the Shelby trade return to really turn the corner. And I just don't see the Sox or Cubs being dumb enough to give us that.

 

[bravos4evr]

I've contended that we did not have a surplus of starting pitching. I think after this draft that is no longer the case. We took an abundance of promising arms: Anderson, Wentz, Muller, Harrison, Wilson, Walker, Rowland.

I have a pretty precise definition of how much is enough at the minor league level. It is based on two criteria. One is you want to produce or graduate one major league starter per year. The second is that you lose one prospect per level when it comes to starting pitching. So if you have 2 in AAA, one will make it. You also need 3 in AA, 4 in High A, 5 in Low A to be on that pace of one a year.

With the guys we took in this year's draft, I think our full season teams next year will have what is needed to produce or graduate one major league starter per year.

you are more conservative than I, I think you need 6-8 guys with potential between the rookie league and low A , 5-6 in A+, 4 in AA, 3 in AAA

 

[sturg33]

There is no avoidance of hitters. They have drafted 9 players in the first two rounds over the last two years. 6 are pitchers, 3 are hitters. That is not an avoidance. It goes back to the Paul Snyder philosophy where if the arm and the bat are equal, take the arm.

Brian Bridges made a comment the other day that they did a lot of work on the college bats, but there simply wasn't a Manny Machado or Bryce Harper type of bat in this draft. Therefore, they went with the arm.

I don't agree with that Snyder philosophy at all.

And no - there wasn't a clear bat to knock anyone socks off... but I'd be willing to bet that the risks on Anderson making it are far higher than Lewis... but the upside on Lewis is also higher than Anderson

 

[yeezus]

We have irrefutable indisputable evidence that he was willing to forgo his college leverage to sign for $3.2M.

evidence we do not have if he's drafted at 3 (where many thought he would definitely go if not 1 or 2).

now go on with your usual BS.

 

[yeezus]

I don't agree with that Snyder philosophy at all.

And no - there wasn't a clear bat to knock anyone socks off... but I'd be willing to bet that the risks on Anderson making it are far higher than Lewis... but the upside on Lewis is also higher than Anderson

you say this from never seeing Lewis swing a bat, or watching Anderson throw a pitch.

If we don't take Anderson he likely falls right around where Lewis went - meaning MLB teams view them similarly.

 

[sturg33]

you say this from never seeing Lewis swing a bat, or watching Anderson throw a pitch.

If we don't take Anderson he likely falls right around where Lewis went - meaning MLB teams view them similarly.

Correct. And Lewis is a college bat and Anderson is a high school pitcher.

Can I not have an opinion? Or do I have to auto-agree with the Johns?

 

[bravos4evr]

If i were drafting, I would have taken Lewis and tried to grab both Wentz and Muller and Cumberland as well. But, I'm not drafting, and I see the reasons why they did the draft they did and I reckon it'll turn out ok. But i was definitely on "Team Lewis" as that bat speed is sheffieldesque

 

[Preacher]

No idea if it would have been better. But it is my preference. Is that allowed around here these days? Or do we have to auto-assume the Johns are infallible

Sensitive much? I never said it was right or wrong, I just asked if that would be better. I don't know.

 

[yeezus]

Correct. And Lewis is a college bat and Anderson is a high school pitcher.

Can I not have an opinion? Or do I have to auto-agree with the Johns?

but your opinion is based on pretty much nothing. 10 MLB teams don't agree with the people on here who thought Lewis was tha god. a high school OFer went before him (at #1!). is he not higher risk? is Lewis' ceiling higher than Moniak's? I'm not sure - at all - but I'm OK admitting that.

 

[Preacher]

nm

 

[bravos4evr]

but your opinion is based on pretty much nothing. 10 MLB teams don't agree with the people on here who thought Lewis was tha god. a high school OFer went before him (at #1!). is he not higher risk? is Lewis' ceiling higher than Moniak's? I'm not sure - at all - but I'm OK admitting that.

I get what yer saying, but that argument doesn't really work (the way you worded it I mean) teams whiff on players all the time, and maybe some questioned his signability or $$$ required?

 

[yeezus]

And again: it's one thing to state and opinion or preference. it's another to be sure of xyz (such as: singing $, ceilings, floors, risk, etc) with having next to no knowledge. I'm not going to sit here and say for sure that Lewis is lower risk/higher ceiling than anyone because I have no clue. and that's ok.

 

[yeezus]

I get what yer saying, but that argument doesn't really work (the way you worded it I mean) teams whiff on players all the time, and maybe some questioned his signability or $$$ required?

but I'm positive he signs $3.2M no matter where he's drafted because that's what he took at #11.

the whiff rate for a member on this board would be significantly higher than those of MLB teams. their knowledge of players and situations will always be far superior, so I'm not down to act "sure" of anything when I can't possibly be.

*this coming from someone who would've liked Lewis had we been able to work the $$ out*

 

[sturg33]

Sorry yeezus. EVERYTHING WE DID WAS CORRECT AND I APOLOGIZE FOR HAVING A PREFERENCE TO COLLEGE BAT OVER A HIGH SCHOOL PITCHER. I hope you can forgive me for this.

 

[sturg33]

But please tell me that a player who signed for $3m would nto have signed for $4M... Oh, and then tell me that as the guy we did take 3rd is going to exactly just that

 

[yeezus]

Sorry yeezus. EVERYTHING WE DID WAS CORRECT AND I APOLOGIZE FOR HAVING A PREFERENCE TO COLLEGE BAT OVER A HIGH SCHOOL PITCHER. I hope you can forgive me for this.

you resort to this when you realize being "sure" of things you can't be sure about is stupid.

i had the same preference provided we were able to work out the money (which I'm not sure about, and I'm OK admitting that - you should try it). the FO apparently did not - and I'm ok admitting I'm not in the know in the least.

I asked some legit questions and you chose to respond that way - fair enough. they were:
Who's riskier: Moniak or Lewis?
Who has a higher ceiling? Higher floor?
And what are you basing your answers on? why did Moniak go well before Lewis? Why did it seem we also ranked the HS OF over the college OF?

 

[yeezus]

But please tell me that a player who signed for $3m would nto have signed for $4M... Oh, and then tell me that as the guy we did take 3rd is going to exactly just that

1) Going 11 instead of 3. AGAIN: you do NOT have that information if he goes at 3 vs. 11.

2) Pre-draft deal for a guy who wasn't going to go top 5 (whereas many thought Lewis definitely would).

I'm not going to make big assumptions based on one situation when the other situation I'm making assumptions about is drastically different. it's silly. it doesn't work except on the internet.

 

[bravos4evr]

but I'm positive he signs $3.2M no matter where he's drafted because that's what he took at #11.

the whiff rate for a member on this board would be significantly higher than those of MLB teams. their knowledge of players and situations will always be far superior, so I'm not down to act "sure" of anything when I can't possibly be.

*this coming from someone who would've liked Lewis had we been able to work the $$ out*

Ya know, I'm not so sure of this. It would take a long term study to figure out, but I reckon that the success rate would be pretty even across the board just due to the nature of predictability in a complex system.

 

[sturg33]

you resort to this when you realize being "sure" of things you can't be sure about is stupid.

i had the same preference provided we were able to work out the money (which I'm not sure about, and I'm OK admitting that - you should try it). the FO apparently did not - and I'm ok admitting I'm not in the know in the least.

I asked some legit questions and you chose to respond that way - fair enough. they were:
Who's riskier: Moniak or Lewis?
Who has a higher ceiling? Higher floor?
And what are you basing your answers on? why did Moniak go well before Lewis? Why did it seem we also ranked the HS OF over the college OF?

I don't know if the Braves felt they could have made the money work. What started this debate was when I said "it looks like we would have been able to get all 3 of them in hindsight" and that apparently set the board on fire because it had the audacity to suggest that the Johns may not have had infallible foresight.

If they didn't think they could sign Lewis - or they LEGIT wanted Anderson more - fine. I don't know. I'm just saying in hindsight, I'm fairly certain we could have made the money work.

My preference was Lewis over Anderson. Why? Because Anderson was mid-first round talent according to the evaluators, while Lewis was a top 3rd first round talent. Because the Braves system has no hitters and Lewis was potentially the top bat in the draft. Because the bust rate of hitters is lower than that of pitchers. Because I'd like to get some offensive talent that can get to the major leagues soon, and Lewis is closer.

I've seen video of both. I'm not an evaluator, but based on the scouting reports I preferred Lewis to everyone in the draft. Why this is so controversial - I'll never understand. But it seems that if we don't auto applaud the moves we're called trolls and haters.

Moniak is probably less risky and has a higher floor than Lewis. That's my opinion. I can't tell you why Lewis didn't go first. Perhaps Philly wanted the safer bet and toolsier hitter that they could develop and didnt want to take a risk on a small school kid. That's fair.

 

[bravos4evr]

Who's riskier: Moniak or Lewis?

Who has a higher ceiling? Higher floor?

And what are you basing your answers on? why did Moniak go well before Lewis? Why did it seem we also ranked the HS OF over the college OF?

I think that the issue lies in the following. Us fans tend to want the guy we think will be the biggest impact guy. (highest ceiling) and we can be a bit adamant about it. BUT, the one thing we don't have to worry about is job security. The guys making the picks have to measure the ceilings and floors of players along with signability and cost , all the while keeping in the back of their mind the idea of having a job if their picks bust. I think Moniak is a safer pick than Lewis, I think he is less likely to crash and burn than Lewis, but Lewis has a higher chance of developing into a superstar player. If my job hinged on making the choice, I might push Moniak more too. But it doesn't, so I liked Lewis more.

that being said, The Braves plan has turned out nicely. It's hard to argue with all the upside we drafted 1-10