Buy low on McCutchen?

Bluedevilruss said:
Did you mean to put an "or" in that last paragraph when listing what the Pirates were giving up?
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no

Niese and Locke are salary dumps for them. They don't count at all and can come out of the deal if they want. That means the Braves get Meadows, Bell and McGuire for Freeman and Viz (or in a different permutation Cabrera and Ruiz). If you're trying to suggest that Freeman and Viz aren't worth Meadows, Bell and McGuire then I would refer you to what the A's just got for Pomeranz.
 
nsacpi said:
I laid out my reasoning in the prior post. I'm responding specifically to your claim we are eating 14M per year to get him. In my proposed trade we move Markakis. The net of the Kemp and Markakis contracts (when taking into account what the Dodgers are paying on Kemp's salary) is as follows: 7M in 2017, 7M in 2018 and 18M in 2019. I'm not sure where you get the 14M per year. Maybe you are tacking on the projected salary for Norris.
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Nah, I was just completely forgetting about the Dodgers paying a share of the salary and using his 21.5 per year, my bad there. But we'd still be taking on a little under 11 mil a year by your numbers. But even so, I see no reason to think he's going to rebound, he was bad his last year in LA, and has been negative WAR the last two. His defense has always been horrible. I see no reason to take on a likely negative value contract unless we are getting something really solid in return.

That being said, I'd probably do that if we could get Solarte, but not for Norris. At least with Solarte there is a chance this year is real and he's a 4-5 WAR 3B going forward, which would make him much more valuable than Prado or Freese. But I'd have to agree with Clinton, I don't see a reason for the Padres to make that move. They could do much better just trading Solarte for prospects by himself. They have a much better money situation than us and are also back in rebuild mode now, so I don't see them trying to make bad deals to save 11 mil or so a year.
 
auyushu said:
Why? Kemp has negative value and Norris isn't particularly great either and only has 2 years of control left. Solarte is solid (and having a career year) and has three years of control left, but we'd basically be eating almost 14 mil a year for getting him. I'd much rather sign Freese or Prado for 3B than eat Kemp's horrible contract, he's worthless.
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Kemp isn't "worthless", imo. Still has an .800 OPS away from Petco this year, which is good. If we could get SD to kick in 3 million per year, it might be worth it. Not sure I'd they'd take back Nick or not.
 
Carp said:
Kemp isn't "worthless", imo. Still has an .800 OPS away from Petco this year, which is good.
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He has a negative WAR this year, I'm not sure how you evaluate players, but it's hard to be more worthless than negative value. He's also been negative 2 out of the last 4 years and has less than 2 WAR total in the past 4 years. He's one of the worst defense OF in baseball, and has been for some time.
 
auyushu said:
He has a negative WAR this year, I'm not sure how you evaluate players, but it's hard to be more worthless than negative value. He's also been negative 2 out of the last 4 years and has less than 2 WAR total in the past 4 years. He's one of the worst defense OF in baseball, and has been for some time.
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He can't help what position his teams stick him in or that he has played half his career games in very spacious parks. Put him in LF in a smaller stadium and odds are his defense isn't very bad, if at all.

But aside from being free of the final year of his contract, I'm not sure why the Pads swap him and Norris for Markakis and Ellis (or a similarly valued pitching prospect). Despite his issues, Kemp is still a decent hitter.
 
Carp said:
He can't help what position his teams stick him in or that he has played half his career games in very spacious parks. Put him in LF in a smaller stadium and odds are his defense isn't very bad, if at all.
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What? He's played half his career games in stadiums that aren't Petco or Dodger stadium. If he was an average OF defensively he'd have average stats defensively, not the horrible ones he has. He's been bad in every position in the OF through almost every season he's played, it has nothing to do with his home park. The kind of reasoning you are using and ignoring defensive stats altogether is how we wound up with Nick in RF to begin with.
 
auyushu said:
He has a negative WAR this year, I'm not sure how you evaluate players, but it's hard to be more worthless than negative value. He's also been negative 2 out of the last 4 years and has less than 2 WAR total in the past 4 years. He's one of the worst defense OF in baseball, and has been for some time.
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His numbers are depressed this year by a low (for him) BABIP. I mentioned how his defensive shortcomings would be reduced coming out of Petco and his offense will probably get a boost too. Plus having Inciarte and Smith at the other two outfield spots would mitigate his range issues. I see this as a less risky move than signing a 30something free agent third baseman to a three or four year deal this off-season.
 
Just no way the braves are going to field long term a lineup with mallex and inciarte with Albies -- just doesn't make sense. One of those OF is going to be traded. Probably inciarte because he holds more value most likely and is a little more expensive.
 
Southcack77 said:
Just no way the braves are going to field long term a lineup with mallex and inciarte with Albies -- just doesn't make sense. One of those OF is going to be traded. Probably inciarte because he holds more value most likely and is a little more expensive.
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Certain guys will be traded. But there is some benefit to being patient and seeing how things play out. For example, one of Ruiz/Peterson might exceed his projection. We don't know which one at this point. So there might be a greater need at corner outfield or third depending on that outcome. Also we need some time to judge which of Smith/Inciarte turns out to be the better player. We don't have to make moves over the next six months that presumes one outcome or another. Let it play out.

The only position where there is an unambiguous need to make a move over the next six months is catcher. We have a need there both for 2017 and beyond.

Everywhere else we can afford to be patient and opportunistic.
 
auyushu said:
What? He's played half his career games in stadiums that aren't Petco or Dodger stadium. If he was an average OF defensively he'd have average stats defensively, not the horrible ones he has. He's been bad in every position in the OF through almost every season he's played, it has nothing to do with his home park. The kind of reasoning you are using and ignoring defensive stats altogether is how we wound up with Nick in RF to begin with.
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I hate to tell you, but if he was average-ish away and bad at home, that wouldn't make him average overall. Average + bad =/= average.

Regardless, he has barely played LF. There isn't enough evidence to day how bad/good he might actually be. Playing LF next to better defenders and in a smaller park would absolutely go a long way to alleviate much of his defensive issues.
 
nsacpi said:
Certain guys will be traded. But there is some benefit to being patient and seeing how things play out. For example, one of Ruiz/Peterson might exceed his projection. We don't know which one at this point. So there might be a greater need at corner outfield or third depending on that outcome. Also we need some time to judge which of Smith/Inciarte turns out to be the better player. We don't have to make moves over the next six months that presumes one outcome or another. Let it play out.

The only position where there is an unambiguous need to make a move over the next six months is catcher. We have a need there both for 2017 and beyond.

Everywhere else we can afford to be patient and opportunistic.
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I think this is a common fallacy: There's no hurry to trade these guys.

That line of thought presumes either improvement of the player to the point that they either exceed the downward drag of lost service control and inevitable increased cost or that they at least break even. A .620 OPS Inciarte next year isn't as valuable as he is this year because he will cost more and have less control time. Two years, it's even worse. And you have lost the illusion that he might be something more. The only way Inciarte is more valuable in the future is if his play exceeds the two downward driving factors that all players face - cost and control. Just maintaining, or even marginal improvement, say to a .700 OPS player, still loses you value in terms of trade. Now, as a GM, you may equate that lost value as acceptable given the fact that he provides you a warm body to play everyday. But, I would respond that there is a huge number of guys out there who can provide you a .650 OPS with excellent defense.

Inciarte's (and to a certain extent Mallex) value is bound to the belief around baseball that he can be something more than he currently is and that that value will exceed his cost/control factor. The more evidence that builds that he is a certain player, the harder it is for others to believe that he might not be that player, but something more.

He's never going to hit for power, so he has to hit for average. He's either a top of the lineup table setter or he's a 4th outfielder at best. So far he hasn't shown that he can be a LO guy, but there's still a believable story that can be told. Two more years of what we're seeing now and you won't be able to give Inciarte away.
 
Carp said:
I hate to tell you, but if he was average-ish away and bad at home, that wouldn't make him average overall. Average + bad =/= average.
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That's not what I meant. If he was average defensively, he wouldn't have the horrible numbers he has defensively because being average away and bad at home would make him simply below average. But he hasn't been below average in his career, he's been absolutely terrible in his career. He has a negative 11 DRS in 450 innings or so of LF play, I think that's enough for me to say that's not going to be average there. Those numbers match up with how terrible he has been everywhere in the OF. He's also heading into his early 30s and is likely to get worse defensively, not better.

And sure, Inciarte can help some, but he would still be a huge hole out there.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I think this is a common fallacy.
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I don't know what side of the argument you were a year ago, but there was discussion regarding whether trading Teheran at the time or even at the end of last season would be a case of selling low. Obviously sometimes a player's value sometimes drops and never recovers. In other cases, patience is rewarded.

It is true that with guys in the majors, loss of service time works against you in terms of remaining surplus value. But it is not the only variable.

I could also throw in the case of Freddie Freeman. I think his trade value right now is much higher than at the end of last year.

In the cases of Teheran, Freeman and Inciarte, you have a prior multi-year baseline that argues in favor of patience in the face of a poor season. The ages of the three players in question also argued in favor of a return to that prior baseline or even improvement over it.
 
nsacpi said:
I see this as a less risky move than signing a 30something free agent third baseman to a three or four year deal this off-season.
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You're making a huge assumption that we would have to sign them for 3-4 years. I see 3 years as a max deal for someone like Prado or Freese at this point, with 2 years and a 1 year option being much more likely. Teams aren't generally going out of their way to sign light hitting corner IF in their mid 30s to 4 year deals.
 
auyushu said:
You're making a huge assumption that we would have to sign them for 3-4 years. I see 3 years as a max deal for someone like Prado or Freese at this point, with 2 years and a 1 year option being much more likely. Teams aren't generally going out of their way to sign light hitting corner IF in their mid 30s to 4 year deals.
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I think Prado and Justin Turner will get 3-4 years. Ian Desmond 5 years. Freese 2 years. Also think Desmond will have a QO. And 50-50 chance Prado and Turner have one too.

Infante got 4 years. Daniel Murphy 3. Zobrist, who is a better hitter but also older, got 4 years.
 
nsacpi said:
I think Prado and Justin Turner will get 3-4 years. Ian Desmond 5 years. Freese 2 years. Also think Desmond will have a QO. And 50-50 chance Prado and Turner have one too.
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I'll be extremely surprised if Prado gets 4 years or a QO, I don't see the Marlins of all people risking that kinda money on him (particularly since I don't see anyone signing him if he has a QO). I agree on Turner, and Desmond will definitely have a QO. Desmond I could see from 4 or 5 years really.

I'd much rather have Freese for 2 years than be stuck with Kemp for the next 3.
 
auyushu said:
I'll be extremely surprised if Prado gets 4 years or a QO, I don't see the Marlins of all people risking that kinda money on him (particularly since I don't see anyone signing him if he has a QO). I agree on Turner, and Desmond will definitely have a QO. Desmond I could see from 4 or 5 years really.

I'd much rather have Freese for 2 years than be stuck with Kemp for the next 3.
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We'll see. I'd rather have a scenario where we get "Kemp minus Markakis" than Freese, especially since we are likely to get an additional player in the Kemp minus Markakis scenario.
 
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