Mallex/inciarte

Enscheff said:
I mean, do you even realize the average MLB CFer in 2015-2016 batted about .265/.330/.410, for an OPS of around .740?

And you think Mallex needs to post a .290 BA and .360 OBP with above average defense to be considered average?

Are you aware of just how out of touch you are with actual baseball statistics?
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I don't think I have ever said that he needs to be an average outfielder. I did say that he would need to play better than average defense. If he hits .290 with an OBP of .360 he will be valuable because that means that he can hit LO. If he can't hit LO, with his lack of production then he can't play every day on a good team (4th OF), unless that team is able to make up for his lack of production by having a production monster at one or two other positions. In other words, IMO, he has to be above average in all phases of the game to make up for the fact that he's below average in the offensive production part.

If the Braves trade Mallex straight up for Longoria I will eat my hat while dancing for joy.

I'm not completely against stats and using them as a basis to determine value. But I don't think you can do it blindly. I guess I am with Mark Twain on this one.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I don't think I have ever said that he needs to be an average outfielder. I did say that he would need to play better than average defense. If he hits .290 with an OBP of .360 he will be valuable because that means that he can hit LO. If he can't hit LO, with his lack of production then he can't play every day on a good team (4th OF), unless that team is able to make up for his lack of production by having a production monster at one or two other positions. In other words, IMO, he has to be above average in all phases of the game to make up for the fact that he's below average in the offensive production part.

If the Braves trade Mallex straight up for Longoria I will eat my hat while dancing for joy.

I'm not completely against stats and using them as a basis to determine value. But I don't think you can do it blindly. I guess I am with Mark Twain on this one.
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What does that even mean? Mallex profiles as a plus base runner and plus defender in center. If he's anywhere close to league average as a hitter he could start on any team.
 
thewupk said:
What does that even mean? Mallex profiles as a plus base runner and plus defender in center. If he's anywhere close to league average as a hitter he could start on any team.
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Come on. Take the Braves glasses off.

If this guy was anywhere near being close to being able to start on any team there would be suitors banging down the door of the Braves even with his injury, because the Braves already have Inciarte. That's not happening (and spare me the "you don't know that, maybe JC turn them down").

You guys are acting like Mallex is somehow the next Lofton. I think he's likely the next Gregor Blanco, a nice player who's had a really good career but not someone who is valued with envy by other teams.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I don't think I have ever said that he needs to be an average outfielder. I did say that he would need to play better than average defense. If he hits .290 with an OBP of .360 he will be valuable because that means that he can hit LO. If he can't hit LO, with his lack of production then he can't play every day on a good team (4th OF), unless that team is able to make up for his lack of production by having a production monster at one or two other positions. In other words, IMO, he has to be above average in all phases of the game to make up for the fact that he's below average in the offensive production part.

If the Braves trade Mallex straight up for Longoria I will eat my hat while dancing for joy.

I'm not completely against stats and using them as a basis to determine value. But I don't think you can do it blindly. I guess I am with Mark Twain on this one.
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I have no idea what you are talking about. My assertion is that Mallex is an average MLB CFer who will produce 2 WAR. Average defense in CF coupled with a .265 BA and .330 OBP makes him a 2 WAR player. A 2 WAR player is worth $16M, and since he is being paid $500k has over $15M in surplus value per season.

You said he doesn't have enough trade value to be worthy of Longoria because he doesn't hit .290 with a .360 OBP and play above average CF defense with 50+ SBs. A player like that is probably 5-6+ WAR and would be "worth" $40M+ of surplus in a single season.

So you think Mallex has to be a 5+ WAR player (because that's what a .290/.360 CFer with plus defense is) being paid the league minimum to be worth Evan Longoria? If Mallex were that good I wouldn't be in favor of trading him for pretty much anyone, and certainly not Longoria.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Come on. Take the Braves glasses off.

If this guy was anywhere near being close to being able to start on any team there would be suitors banging down the door of the Braves even with his injury, because the Braves already have Inciarte. That's not happening (and spare me the "you don't know that, maybe JC turn them down").

You guys are acting like Mallex is somehow the next Lofton. I think he's likely the next Gregor Blanco, a nice player who's had a really good career but not someone who is valued with envy by other teams.
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Mallex obviously wouldn't start over the various all-star players at that position. But if you don't think teams wouldnt want a league average hitter who plays plus defense at center making league average salary then you are crazy.
 
We should keep all 4 outfielders. Odds are all 4 won't be healthy at the same time for more than a quarter of the season. I know Markakis is overpaid and some people have a hard time getting over that but there aren't a lot of good options to spend his money on if we could unload him.
 
cajunrevenge said:
We should keep all 4 outfielders. Odds are all 4 won't be healthy at the same time for more than a quarter of the season. I know Markakis is overpaid and some people have a hard time getting over that but there aren't a lot of good options to spend his money on if we could unload him.
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People that understand the economics of baseball understand Markakis is being paid almost exactly fairly. That's why he has zero trade value...there is no surplus value there, so nobody is going to give value in exchange for zero surplus value.
 
I understand the economics of baseball just fine I just don't agree with the the WAR stat that is commonly used. If Markakis was not over paid we could dump him without paying his salary. I don't believe any team would take on his whole contract for a bag of balls.

Edit - to clarify I mean any sane team. So the dbacks don't count.
 
Enscheff said:
He would probably require more than Inciarte, but not much more. The Cubs are obviously a team that values defensive contributions more than most other teams, so they are the perfect place to send Inciarte if the goal is to maximize his trade value. And they will need a CFer after this season.
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I agree it would be a good trade and one that would make sense, but I wonder why it hasn't been made already if the Cubs were willing to move Baez.
 
Southcack77 said:
I agree it would be a good trade and one that would make sense, but I wonder why it hasn't been made already if the Cubs were willing to move Baez.
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Fowler was sitting out on the market this offseason, so they weren't pressured to make a move for a CFer until he signed, and then he signed with them at a bargain rate. Fowler will be a FA at the end of the year, so they will have a need.

Almora is looking more like a 4th OFer than a starter on a contending team, or a good RHed side of a platoon (with Inciarte?).

Ian Happ looks like he can fill the role of super utility guy that Baez currently occupies as early as next year.

If just seems to me this offseason is the time for the Cubs to maximize the value of Baez, and converting him into a 3 WAR CFer might be a good trade for them to make.
 
Enscheff said:
I have no idea what you are talking about. My assertion is that Mallex is an average MLB CFer who will produce 2 WAR. Average defense in CF coupled with a .265 BA and .330 OBP makes him a 2 WAR player. A 2 WAR player is worth $16M, and since he is being paid $500k has over $15M in surplus value per season.

You said he doesn't have enough trade value to be worthy of Longoria because he doesn't hit .290 with a .360 OBP and play above average CF defense with 50+ SBs. A player like that is probably 5-6+ WAR and would be "worth" $40M+ of surplus in a single season.

So you think Mallex has to be a 5+ WAR player (because that's what a .290/.360 CFer with plus defense is) being paid the league minimum to be worth Evan Longoria? If Mallex were that good I wouldn't be in favor of trading him for pretty much anyone, and certainly not Longoria.
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I just don't agree with your line of reasoning. I don't care how much so called surplus value Mallex supposedly has, as the player he is now not a theoretical construct, he isn't worth Longoria straight up. No where near it. No one is likely ever going to give Mallex a contract like Longoria got (regardless of whether you agree with whether or not Longoria is worth his contract), because he is not a production bat. To ever get a contract like Longoria, Mallex would have to be one of the best of the best playing as a LO type CF. History works very much against him here as well with contracts like Carl Crawford and Ellsbury where teams paid big money to Hype outfielders and got burned.

Longoria isn't a salary dump. He's had a big resurgent year. He's earning his big salary and will be treated by the trading team like he's going to continue to earn that salary. This isn't a Mike Kemp deal. Longoria is one of the top 10 (maybe top 5) 3B in baseball.

The numbers may say that a Mallex for Longoria straight up trade is fair according to WAR calculations and surplus value projections. But if they do, then they are wrong because reality has to enter the scene somewhere.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.
 
Enscheff said:
People that understand the economics of baseball understand Markakis is being paid almost exactly fairly. That's why he has zero trade value...there is no surplus value there, so nobody is going to give value in exchange for zero surplus value.
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Teams trade for players on fair contracts all the time. Not every front office views its roster like Benjamin Graham.

That's largely limited to the teams who are out of contention or who are permanently shuffling rosters do to budget concerns.

If a team has a Markakis shaped hole on their roster, the idea that they can get him at his actual value will be appealing. whether any such teams sees a Markakis shaped hole is the pickle.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I just don't agree with your line of reasoning. I don't care how much so called surplus value Mallex supposedly has, as the player he is now not a theoretical construct, he isn't worth Longoria straight up. No where near it. No one is likely ever going to give Mallex a contract like Longoria got (regardless of whether you agree with whether or not Longoria is worth his contract), because he is not a production bat. To ever get a contract like Longoria, Mallex would have to be one of the best of the best playing as a LO type CF. History works very much against him here as well with contracts like Carl Crawford and Ellsbury where teams paid big money to Hype outfielders and got burned.

Longoria isn't a salary dump. He's had a big resurgent year. He's earning his big salary and will be treated by the trading team like he's going to continue to earn that salary. This isn't a Mike Kemp deal. Longoria is one of the top 10 (maybe top 5) 3B in baseball.

The numbers may say that a Mallex for Longoria straight up trade is fair according to WAR calculations and surplus value projections. But if they do, then they are wrong because reality has to enter the scene somewhere.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.
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the truth is that a 3B with middle of the lineup potential is more valuable than a light hitting center fielder no matter what his defense is.

I think the math of which contract is a better value is all nice and theoretical from a message board perspective, but the truth of the matter is that you only have so many lineup spots and there are only so many difference making players.

You can have good values at every position and still not field a competitive lineup.

I think I agree with you that no front office is likely to value Mallex Smith or Inciarte more highly than they value Longoria, even considering age, defense, and contracts. But perhaps one of them can be the center of a deal. I don't know.
 
Southcack77 said:
the truth is that a 3B with middle of the lineup potential is more valuable than a light hitting center fielder no matter what his defense is.

I think the math of which contract is a better value is all nice and theoretical from a message board perspective, but the truth of the matter is that you only have so many lineup spots and there are only so many difference making players.

You can have good values at every position and still not field a competitive lineup.

I think I agree with you that no front office is likely to value Mallex Smith or Inciarte more highly than they value Longoria, even considering age, defense, and contracts. But perhaps one of them can be the center of a deal. I don't know.
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agreed
 
I suppose we will see if/when Longoria is moved this offseason. I suspect he will be now that the Rays acquired Duffy.
 
I wouldn't be surprised if Kemp were traded to an AL team (maybe to the Yanks for BMac?). Hopefully Neck will also be traded to an AL team. By July 1, Mallex LF, Ender CF & Dustin Peterson RF.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think I agree with you that no front office is likely to value Mallex Smith or Inciarte more highly than they value Longoria, even considering age, defense, and contracts. But perhaps one of them can be the center of a deal. I don't know.
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Small market teams should, at least with Inciarte.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I just don't agree with your line of reasoning. I don't care how much so called surplus value Mallex supposedly has, as the player he is now not a theoretical construct, he isn't worth Longoria straight up. No where near it. No one is likely ever going to give Mallex a contract like Longoria got (regardless of whether you agree with whether or not Longoria is worth his contract), because he is not a production bat. To ever get a contract like Longoria, Mallex would have to be one of the best of the best playing as a LO type CF. History works very much against him here as well with contracts like Carl Crawford and Ellsbury where teams paid big money to Hype outfielders and got burned.

Longoria isn't a salary dump. He's had a big resurgent year. He's earning his big salary and will be treated by the trading team like he's going to continue to earn that salary. This isn't a Mike Kemp deal. Longoria is one of the top 10 (maybe top 5) 3B in baseball.

The numbers may say that a Mallex for Longoria straight up trade is fair according to WAR calculations and surplus value projections. But if they do, then they are wrong because reality has to enter the scene somewhere.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.
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Actually, he is a sort of a salary dump. As good as Longoria is, if he weren't owed 90+ million, the Rays wouldn't be looking to move him.

He should hold similar value to Tulowitzki at the time he was traded, or hell even Donaldson. Neither of those guys netted the sort of package you are proposing Longoria is worth. Going solely by the Donaldson trade, Longoria at best is worth a package along the lines of Allard, Ender, Ellis, and Ricardo Sanchez.
 
Carp said:
Actually, he is a sort of a salary dump. As good as Longoria is, if he weren't owed 90+ million, the Rays wouldn't be looking to move him.

He should hold similar value to Tulowitzki at the time he was traded, or hell even Donaldson. Neither of those guys netted the sort of package you are proposing Longoria is worth. Going solely by the Donaldson trade, Longoria at best is worth a package along the lines of Allard, Ender, Ellis, and Ricardo Sanchez.
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I really don't wanna give up allard
 
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