Peraza

Enscheff said:
The differences in player valuation models is precisely why trades happen. Teams trade for players they value more highly than the other team, and trade away players they value less.

It then all comes down to who was right. Whichever team had the better valuation model wins more games.
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Again.. that's true in the aggregate. The Braves being right about Kemp doesn't necessarily equate to more wins unless you can control for other variables, which we really can't.
 
chop2chip said:
Agreed. But WAR doesn't adjust for expected BABIP and I'm not even saying it should, but there should be some version that is more predictive.
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Yup. WAR is a stat that tells you what happened. A stat like you described would be like xWAR...a predictive stat trying to determine what will happen.

You see articles all the time about players who under/over perform their xBABIP and/or batted ball profiles. They are an attempt to do something like xWAR, it just hasn't been wrapped up into a single stat yet.
 
chop2chip said:
Agreed. But WAR doesn't adjust for expected BABIP and I'm not even saying it should, but there should be some version that is more predictive.
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To me WAR should be based on what happened and not what will happen. It's why I like B-Ref's version for pitchers.
 
thewupk said:
Yeah. What I'm saying is the raw data is the same. It's all from the same game(s). How they calculate it and what they use is what can be different.
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In an existential sense, yes. The game itself is a confluence of raw data. Fangraphs just doesn't have the same access to the resources necessary to extract the same data as teams do.

If they were able to pour millions of dollars and hire full time staff to track every game, then maybe they would, but they are glorified blog with a cool sortable player board interface.
 
Enscheff said:
Mockery, the last bastion of those without a legitimate point.
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no dog in this fight. really a dumb argument that I don't have an opinion on, nor care to join..

it was just a humorous comment that made me laugh, so I added to it. carry on with the rest of your day.. I seriously doubt my comment hurt your feelings and probably didn't need a response.
 
chop2chip said:
In an existential sense, yes. The game itself is a confluence of raw data. Fangraphs just doesn't have the same access to the resources necessary to extract the same data as teams do.

If they were able to pour millions of dollars and hire full time staff to track every game, then maybe they would, but they are glorified blog with a cool sortable player board interface.
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I would say they are more than a glorified blog. The basis of their offensive stat was created by Tom Tango who has worked for the Blue Jays, M's, and Cubs.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
no dog in this fight. really a dumb argument that I don't have an opinion on, nor care to join..

it was just a humorous comment that made me laugh, so I added to it. carry on with the rest of your day.. I seriously doubt my comment hurt your feelings and probably didn't need a response.
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fragile egos are loud but also hurt easily.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
no dog in this fight. really a dumb argument that I don't have an opinion on, nor care to join..

it was just a humorous comment that made me laugh, so I added to it. carry on with the rest of your day.. I seriously doubt my comment hurt your feelings and probably didn't need a response.
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Right. You wouldn't even survive a game of catch with me, so being mocked by a little league veteran doesn't really register.
 
yeezus said:
And again: The Braves did not analyze whether or not to make that move by going to fangraphs and looking at Kemp's WAR. Much more went into it. That's not an attach on fangraphs, or WAR. Perhaps they feel the defense in LF won't matter as much as WAR would suggest, and the added power to the lineup outweighs it more than WAR would suggest. I'm sure the FO is capable of doing the WAR x Salary calculation. It's not like this is information they missed, or were too moronic to comprehend.
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It means whatever they use to judge player performance suggests Kemp is worth 8 million or more a year or that he will be with his time with the Braves. I disagree that he has been worth that in the past two years. Whether he is worth that remains to be seen. But just because the Braves believe that doesn't mean that's actually the case. Teams screw up on player evaluation all the time.
 
thewupk said:
I would say they are more than a glorified blog. The basis of their offensive stat was created by Tom Tango who has worked for the Blue Jays, M's, and Cubs.
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That doesn't disprove my point, since it's Tango's work... But the first part about not having the resources to extract data like the clubs is the important part.
 
chop2chip said:
That doesn't disprove my point, since it's Tango's work... But the first part about not having the resources to extract data like the clubs is the important part.
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What is the payroll for each clubs scouting department/services?
 
thewupk said:
But just because the Braves believe that doesn't mean that's actually the case. Teams screw up on player evaluation all the time.
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I agree. I just found the use of the word "moronic" humorous. As if zito isn't a moron because he was able to go to fangraphs and look at WAR, which the moronic FO isn't capable of doing. I'm sure they understand where fangraph's WAR puts Kemp's salary at. Disagree with valuation? Sure. Calling them moronic and proving it by going to a website anyone can go to for free? Na.
 
gilesfan said:
What is the payroll for each clubs scouting department/services?
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I can't speak to the scouting departments, but when I looked into it they didn't pay their analytic people well at all. I would have had to take a 60%-70% pay cut and worked insane hours. Baseball nerd jobs are only for young guys with no family haha!
 
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