Braves offense and 2017

I'd leave Garcia at 3b if I couldn't really really upgrade the position. Ramos or Mac would be my catcher upgrade. I know Ramos would require a lot of money but I'd strongly consider it. I'd let Albies start right it of the gate at 2b and let Jace be my super sub. I'd use Mallex as trade bait in a package to get a really good starter. This lineup would be pretty good.

Inciarte
Swanson
Freeman
Kemp
Ramos/Mac
Markakis
Albies
Garcia
 
That's a pretty predictable comment from a guy who likes his valuation distilled down to one number.

Garcia's defense has been good. And Matt Kemp has been worth more than 0.0, regardless of what your metric says.

My metric? These metrics are widely accepted by anyone who understands data analysis. The correlation of WAR to actual wins is very strong.

If you think Kemp is good and Adonis plays good defense...well that's exactly why these metrics were created. They are solely responsible for small market teams having parity the last 10 years, and the adoption of these same metrics by large market teams is why that parity is evaporating.
 
My metric? These metrics are widely accepted by anyone who understands data analysis. The correlation of WAR to actual wins is very strong.

If you think Kemp is good and Adonis plays good defense...well that's exactly why these metrics were created. They are solely responsible for small market teams having parity the last 10 years, and the adoption of these same metrics by large market teams is why that parity is evaporating.

Anyone have Garcia's WAR since he got called back up? I know it's a SSS, but you know I live for those haha
 
My metric? These metrics are widely accepted by anyone who understands data analysis. The correlation of WAR to actual wins is very strong.

If you think Kemp is good and Adonis plays good defense...well that's exactly why these metrics were created. They are solely responsible for small market teams having parity the last 10 years, and the adoption of these same metrics by large market teams is why that parity is evaporating.

Solely responsible? No.
 
Just asking did anyone notice that this is the best year of wilson ramos for the whole career? I am not really sold. The braves should try to make a trade with the pirates about Francisco Cervelli or even consider Matt Wieters that have about the same numbers that wilson ramos for his career. We should not give away a draft pick for a player that really is not going to put us in a title contention.
 
Solely responsible? No.

Yes, solely. Small market teams developed these metrics (or ones very close to them) as a way to expose market inefficiencies. Teams like the As and Rays created these metrics to accurately calculate and project player value. Someone even made a movie about it. The public sphere has copied these metrics as best they could, and that's why we have metrics like WAR to evaluate players.

As soon as the large market teams caught on, they implemented data analysis departments that completely dwarf anything teams like the As and Rays could possible support. Now teams like the Cubs, BoSox, Yanks and Dodgers are out-analyzing in addition to out spending everyone else. In fact, the Yankees just managed to get a top 3 farm system by selling parts and STILL remain in the playoff hunt...all over the course of a single trade deadline.

These "old school" teams are being left behind, just like "old school" fans who listen to Chip say stupid things like, "who needs WAR when you can hit a home run". They simply can't comprehend how a guy who hits 30 HR can possibly be a bad player.
 
Wow... Brimming with positivity. Who are you and what have you done with Enscheff? :tchop:

I've been saying for months that if the Braves acquired MLB average or better players for LF, 3b, C and a starting pitcher they could be a .500 team. If you squint hard and dismiss a lot of the defensive metrics, you can see a ln average player in Kemp.

If the team adds Prado and Mac plus a pitcher like De La Rosa, they can push for 80+ wins if the young guys all progress like we all hope they will.
 
I've been saying for months that if the Braves acquired MLB average or better players for LF, 3b, C and a starting pitcher they could be a .500 team. If you squint hard and dismiss a lot of the defensive metrics, you can see a ln average player in Kemp.

If the team adds Prado and Mac plus a pitcher like De La Rosa, they can push for 80+ wins if the young guys all progress like we all hope they will.

Would love Prado... What you think the price tag would be?
 
Would love Prado... What you think the price tag would be?

I'm terrible at speculating on FA contracts and only regurgitate estimates I read. I would say that anything over 2/25 or 3/35 would no longer be a good WAR/$ value and the Braves should pass.

For reference, MLBTR guesses Reddick may be able to get a deal similar to what Markakis got, but some of their staff think he will only get 3 years. They rate Prado below him in their FA power rankings.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/2017-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-5.html
 
Yes, solely. Small market teams developed these metrics (or ones very close to them) as a way to expose market inefficiencies. Teams like the As and Rays created these metrics to accurately calculate and project player value. Someone even made a movie about it. The public sphere has copied these metrics as best they could, and that's why we have metrics like WAR to evaluate players.

As soon as the large market teams caught on, they implemented data analysis departments that completely dwarf anything teams like the As and Rays could possible support. Now teams like the Cubs, BoSox, Yanks and Dodgers are out-analyzing in addition to out spending everyone else. In fact, the Yankees just managed to get a top 3 farm system by selling parts and STILL remain in the playoff hunt...all over the course of a single trade deadline.

These "old school" teams are being left behind, just like "old school" fans who listen to Chip say stupid things like, "who needs WAR when you can hit a home run". They simply can't comprehend how a guy who hits 30 HR can possibly be a bad player.

The parts still have to fit together. You could have the best Ferrari set of pistons, the best Lamborghini carburetor, the best Porsche fuel injector and so on and still not have a workable engine.

You can also have a set of Goodyear tires and a set of Pirelli tires and still not have a running car (Mallex and Inciarte).

And, if the big teams like the Red Sox are adhering to the god of WAR, how do you explain the Panda and Ramirez contracts? Or the Price contract on a $ per WAR basis?
 
And, if the big teams like the Red Sox are adhering to the god of WAR, how do you explain the Panda and Ramirez contracts? Or the Price contract on a $ per WAR basis?

Because they can afford it. They can afford to shop at the top of the FA pitching market, knowing full well Proce will be dead money in a few years. They can afford to take chance that Panda wouldn't get even fatter. They could afford to take a chance on Hanley in LF. They knew Ortiz would be gone soon an open up the DH slot.

They have refused to deal their young core positional talent. Their shift happened long ago with Theo, who was then poached by the Cubs. Then they bring in a more old school guy who signed those bad deals, even though they can certainly afford to take those risks.

The large market teams can now do everything the small market teams used to do to gain an advantage, and then supersize it with unlimited money. They can take risks on FAs in addition to properly valuing players. It's precisely why parity in baseball has been eroding the last few years.
 
My metric? These metrics are widely accepted by anyone who understands data analysis. The correlation of WAR to actual wins is very strong.

If you think Kemp is good and Adonis plays good defense...well that's exactly why these metrics were created. They are solely responsible for small market teams having parity the last 10 years, and the adoption of these same metrics by large market teams is why that parity is evaporating.

I'm perfectly capable of understanding data analysis. Also, I'm one of the Hemsworth brothers and, like Donald, have banged all the world's top women. I still don't buy WAR on the defensive side of the ball, and when it says that Kemp is useless on the offensive side of the ball, I question that, too. He is helping the ballclub win, there's no question.
 
I'm perfectly capable of understanding data analysis. Also, I'm one of the Hemsworth brothers and, like Donald, have banged all the world's top women. I still don't buy WAR on the defensive side of the ball, and when it says that Kemp is useless on the offensive side of the ball, I question that, too. He is helping the ballclub win, there's no question.

Yes he is, but a player who is actually good would be helping them win even more. I would expect someone who claims to understand data analysis to grasp that idea.
 
The parts still have to fit together. You could have the best Ferrari set of pistons, the best Lamborghini carburetor, the best Porsche fuel injector and so on and still not have a workable engine.

You can also have a set of Goodyear tires and a set of Pirelli tires and still not have a running car (Mallex and Inciarte).

And, if the big teams like the Red Sox are adhering to the god of WAR, how do you explain the Panda and Ramirez contracts? Or the Price contract on a $ per WAR basis?

Right. They're not.

Because they are using statistical analysis, but not WAR, and not to the exclusion of things that are not easily quantified. Mesh, and protection, and grit, and veteran leadership, clutchness and whatever else nsacpi has on his list.
 
I'm perfectly capable of understanding data analysis. Also, I'm one of the Hemsworth brothers and, like Donald, have banged all the world's top women. I still don't buy WAR on the defensive side of the ball, and when it says that Kemp is useless on the offensive side of the ball, I question that, too. He is helping the ballclub win, there's no question.

You really question how a guy with a sub 300 OBP can be considered average?
 
Yes he is, but a player who is actually good would be helping them win even more. I would expect someone who claims to understand data analysis to grasp that idea.

I do acknowledge he is a limited defensive player and that he is basically a two-tool player at 240 pounds. On this club they desperately needed those tools. I do see that he doesn't fare well on WAR, and I know why. Overpaid? Absolutely. Useless? No. And not on this club.
 
You really question how a guy with a sub 300 OBP can be considered average?

With the Braves he's at what, .320? Not a world beater. Not useless, either. He's been good since he came over. Walk rate is at 10%. Rediscovered patience. Portends well for more and harder contact if it holds up. He probably won't have a year like 2011 again, but there's some great potential upside there.

No, I don't believe a .295 OBP is acceptable. But that's not the hitter I've been seeing. Have you?
 
Because they can afford it. They can afford to shop at the top of the FA pitching market, knowing full well Proce will be dead money in a few years. They can afford to take chance that Panda wouldn't get even fatter. They could afford to take a chance on Hanley in LF. They knew Ortiz would be gone soon an open up the DH slot.

They have refused to deal their young core positional talent. Their shift happened long ago with Theo, who was then poached by the Cubs. Then they bring in a more old school guy who signed those bad deals, even though they can certainly afford to take those risks.

The large market teams can now do everything the small market teams used to do to gain an advantage, and then supersize it with unlimited money. They can take risks on FAs in addition to properly valuing players. It's precisely why parity in baseball has been eroding the last few years.

Parity in baseball eroding?

I don't see that, at least not yet.

Lot's of people around here bow and grovel to the success of the Royals and they have certainly taken advantage of their chances but they're not an exception to lack of parity.

You also have the Pirates who have been extremely competitive but have likely valued their prospects too much because they have been unwilling to part with players for the NOW opportunity (no way to know if it would have made a difference).

The Cards certainly aren't a true large market team and neither are the Cubs historically in terms of spending.

The Rays had a shot. The Marlins have a shot this year. Even the Giants aren't really huge payroll spenders but aren't afraid of targeted spending.

It seems to me that in recent years the teams who have been traditional big spenders have either fallen short of the playoffs (Red Sox, Yanks, Angels in past years) or have fallen short of winning anything Dodgers, Rangers, Mets.

It is TRUE that the A's have mostly struggled since the book except for that three year run where they had Donaldson, right before Billy trading him away for a handful of magic beans.

IDK, it seems to me that the smartest teams are still doing well, even in the face of a lot of money being spent.

Outside of having all the money you want or need, teams that are doing well now committed to a true rebuild, went through some multiyear pain for long term gain, tanked if they had to, then played hard, fast and well with the draft, international signings and key trades.

The Cubs aren't the Cubs of today without Bryant, Rizzo, Arrieta, Baez, Contreras, Soler, Russell, Strop, Rondon. Their FA signings have been fairly mediocre, for every Lester they have a Heyward.
Houston was reviled for "tanking" and now look where they are, competing and set up for long term success.
The Rangers built themselves on the backs of trades (partly unfortunately with the Braves), the draft and international signings.
The Blue Jays have a lot of cast offs that they turned into gold as far as bats and have developed some good pitching.
The Orioles are mostly home grown.
 
With the Braves he's at what, .320? Not a world beater. Not useless, either. He's been good since he came over. Walk rate is at 10%. Rediscovered patience. Portends well for more and harder contact if it holds up. He probably won't have a year like 2011 again, but there's some great potential upside there.

No, I don't believe a .295 OBP is acceptable. But that's not the hitter I've been seeing. Have you?

He had a 748 OPS with the Braves coming into today compared to a 774 OPS with the Padres. That will have gone up after today. He's been fairly average overall on offense.
 
He had a 748 OPS with the Braves coming into today compared to a 774 OPS with the Padres. That will have gone up after today. He's been fairly average overall on offense.

I expect it'll level off higher. He's been creeping up after a slow start. He's been in the middle of the offense during this streak. An .800 OPS outside of LA and SD is not an unreasonable expectation.

And while the latest thing to make fun of on this site is the idea of "protection," he is contributing by putting one more legitimate hitter in a lineup that only has a few. I think of that as approaching "critical mass." I suppose you could quantify that by looking at team runs before and after, while taking it with a grain of salt because others have come alive. It is popular to treat all those as independent events, but I think they're at least somewhat interdependent. Of course, that not quantifiable, more of a feel thing. And with most of you, if you can't measure it, it didn't happen. Amirite?
 
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