Braves offense and 2017

The only question that matters is, "Do the Braves want to be better in 2017?".

If the answer is yes (an honest yes, not a GM speak yes), then a 3 year deal for Prado makes sense because they have the worst 3B situation in the game last time I checked and that's the easiest position to upgrade. If the answer is no, then it makes little sense to spend any money upgrading over a Ruiz/Garcia platoon.

There is a small chance Adonis continues to improve and is equal to Prado in 2017. There is an even smaller chance Prado declines and Adonis is better than him in 2017. However, there is a much larger chance that each 30+ year old player has established the quality of player they are and Prado continues to produce 2+ wins per year more than Adonis.

A team that wants to win places their bet on Prado. A team that is punting doesn't care, so they may as well save the cash. I am going to root for the team to attempt to win, so I am going to hope they upgrade 3B.
 
Enscheff said:
The only question that matters is, "Do the Braves want to be better in 2017?".

If the answer is yes (an honest yes, not a GM speak yes), then a 3 year deal for Prado makes sense because they have the worst 3B situation in the game last time I checked and that's the easiest position to upgrade. If the answer is no, then it makes little sense to spend any money upgrading over a Ruiz/Garcia platoon.

There is a small chance Adonis continues to improve and is equal to Prado in 2017. There is an even smaller chance Prado declines and Adonis is better than him in 2017. However, there is a much larger chance that each 30+ year old player has established the quality of player they are and Prado continues to produce 2+ wins per year more than Adonis.

A team that wants to win places their bet on Prado. A team that is punting doesn't care, so they may as well save the cash. I am going to root for the team to attempt to win, so I am going to hope they upgrade 3B.
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depends on the price and length of contract it takes to land prado. i wouldnt be surprised to see him get more than 3 years
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Well said.

I think everything is better with checks and balances. For instance, would the Braves have acquired Olivera if there had been clear statistical evidence against him over the protests of the scouts who fell in love? I don't think that there was enough clear US based baseball stats to sway any decision because of timing. But, IMO, the Braves were taken advantage of by the Dodgers because the Dodgers had an imbalance of data - in this case scouting data, where the Braves scouts were in love from past workouts and the Dodgers scouts had seen enough over a large enough sample size to determine that Olivera was in fact fool's gold (even though they were initially fooled too to the tune of $31M). I would be really interested to know if the Braves started out by asking for Olivera in the deal or were persuaded to accept him in exchange of another but we will probably never know.

Traditional scouting is flawed. Scouting by stats alone is flawed. I think the smart teams use both together as checks and balances against one another and establish a consensus fairly easily. But, even those franchises likely have decisions that come down to a gut feel based on experience and intuition more often than they would like.
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The dodgers may well have had even more important insight into his character.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
To me, there is more to it than "would you rather have Prado at 3/10 or Adonis next year at 1M?"

I think most would agree that in all likelihood Prado is and will be the better player. If you accept that, then it becomes several questions: 1. is Prado's additional value worth the difference in money and years? 2. Do you think Prado will decline (this question is less of a concern for Adonis because he could just be released without anything else owed whereas Prado's money and years will be guaranteed). 3. Could you accept the performance difference at a lesser cost of Adonis over Prado and use the money saved elsewhere to improve the team more in another place? 4. Why tie up multiple years of money on a player that improves 2017 but likely retards 2019? 5. Prado's history suggests you know what he will be. Does anyone think Adonis has significantly more growth, even though he is the same age? I think that a fair question given his lack of ML experience and his growth throughout this year.
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I think more directly the question is are the Braves a contender because they have Prado instead of Garcia. If not, is there someone else the Braves could sign that would make them a contender? If not, then the decision really isn't so weighty.

I believe Prado is probably going to cost more money for longer years than some want to suggest. If the contract does not figure to be an albatross then I am ok with signing him. The money in the short term is irrelevant and he may well sell more tickets and marginally improve the performance of the young pitchers. He's a pro that knows the Braves organization so that's a nice clubhouse presence as well if he wants to be back.

So I don't see it is a particularly weighty decision as far as winning goes. If we are talking about winning in 2017,, the Braves probably would be better off from a contention standpoint from keeping Garcia at the minimum and going wth Ruiz or a dumpster dive to push him, rather than signing Prado to a bigger contract and using the money saved on Prado to find another strong starting pitcher. Because the marginal improvement of Prado at 3rd is likely much less impactful than Atlanta adding a #2 starter.

Not sure if that is even possible or not, but seems relatively clear the Braves more pressing issue that keeps them from immediate contention is the lack of dependable starting pitching.

So I find the argument over Prado/Garcia to be mostly irrelevant. If the contract is right sign Prado. If not go with Garcia.

No big whup either way.
 
Enscheff said:
This is precisely the boneheaded argumentative stuff I'm talking about from folks that just want to argue against "stats" and "data" no matter what.

Prado and Garcia as essentially the same age (31 vs 32), and Prado has accumulated 28.8 career WAR to Garcia's 0.9. Prado has a career OBP that is 35 points higher than Garcia's. Every single defensive metric says Prado is an above average defender that can handle multiple positions, while Garcia is only capable of butchering 3B. According to literally every single measure available, including the "eye test", Prado is the far superior baseball player in every way imaginable. It is laughable to compare Prado and Garcia as if they are even in the same realm of talent.

Yet someone still makes the argument that it's not worth giving Prado $10M over sticking with a AAAA player at 3B because....reasons.

It is truly mind boggling.
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If you are citing career WAR as a track record, I'm with you.

Obviously, there are some limitations to the comparison when one player has been stateside all along and the other has basically one season of service time. Not fair to compare the raw numbers, but I'm with you on the track record.

I also agree Prado is the better player and clearly is more proven. All things equal, I'd rather have Prado.

In this situation, I'm not sure it actually matters and the Braves might be able to find a better use for those resources, whether it is acquiring a better player somehow (at 3B or the rotation) or using the money to secure more prospects, picks, etc.

You've said a number of times that the Braves have blown any chance of contending for the foreseeable future by signing Kemp, so it seems clear that you don't think they are winning in 2017 regardless of what they do. And you seem to accept that they are being rather calculating and cynical about not winning.

So its strange to see you talking about signing Prado as a winning move in 2017. It really would just make them marginally better and would probably help them sell a few more tickets and add some intangible things that aren't in the stats and may in fact be pure smoke and sentiment.

I guess my question is, does it matter as much as these series of threads suggest it might? Particularly if Prado asks for four years and 12 million/per.
 
Southcack77 said:
If you are citing career WAR as a track record, I'm with you.

Obviously, there are some limitations to the comparison when one player has been stateside all along and the other has basically one season of service time. Not fair to compare the raw numbers, but I'm with you on the track record.

I also agree Prado is the better player and clearly is more proven. All things equal, I'd rather have Prado.

In this situation, I'm not sure it actually matters and the Braves might be able to find a better use for those resources, whether it is acquiring a better player somehow (at 3B or the rotation) or using the money to secure more prospects, picks, etc.

You've said a number of times that the Braves have blown any chance of contending for the foreseeable future by signing Kemp, so it seems clear that you don't think they are winning in 2017 regardless of what they do. And you seem to accept that they are being rather calculating and cynical about not winning.

So its strange to see you talking about signing Prado as a winning move in 2017. It really would just make them marginally better and would probably help them sell a few more tickets and add some intangible things that aren't in the stats and may in fact be pure smoke and sentiment.

I guess my question is, does it matter as much as these series of threads suggest it might? Particularly if Prado asks for four years and 12 million/per.
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Yes, I believe the Braves threw in the towel on 2017 when they acquired Kemp rather than a more impactful player. Yes again, I agree that signing Prado will not make this team a contender in 2017. And yet again, yes, I think an Adonis/Ruiz platoon might provide more WAR/$ when they produce 1 win for $1m while Prado's 2-3 wins will cost $10m+.

However, my main contention has been that at some point the Braves need to start getting better, and it will be a gradual process. They aren't going to go from 60 wins to 90 wins in a single offseason by trying to time everything just right. Just like the Nats and Werth, the Braves will have to get to 75+ wins, then 85+ wins, and then 90+ wins and true playoff contention.

I want 2017 to be the year they make the jump to 75+ wins. That can be done with relatively cheap and low risk acquisitions like Prado and Mac. Those are modest improvements that won't hamstring the team like a crazy contract for Desmond, Ruiz or Cespedes could.

Sticking with Adonis and/or Ruiz is a clear sign the team isn't trying to get better yet (as was trading for Kemp). So I'm not a fan of those moves.
 
Quick WAR question...

If the braves upgrade 3B, C, RF, and SP by 2 WAR each, then is the team 8 wins better or 2 really big wins better?
 
I was one of Prado's biggest fans when he was with the Braves and I've always respected him as a player. That said, I think he is best avoided moving forward.
 
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