Olivera traded for Kemp

thewupk said:
Right. For example I do prefer team UZR defensive numbers more so than the individual ones. To me this is a clear example of Ender being a really good outfielder with some of his 'value' being attributed to Nick and Matt. Is that fair? Is that right? Who knows but that's how UZR handles it whereas I would personally rather attribute that to Ender himself on an individual basis which is why looking at the overall OF defense gets you a better gauge of what's going on.
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I think a basketball analogy is apt to some extent. If you have a great shot blocker, it certainly helps team defense although no one else on the floor has their individual talent enhanced. Does that mean the premium shot blocker makes up for every mistake made by another player? No. But it covers a lot of warts. Defense is dynamic in all sports, meaning players rely on each other to a great extent.
 
thewupk said:
The point is simple. Kemp's 'range' value has improved since having Ender next to him. Is that a SSS? Will it last? We will see. But it's been consistent from day 1 since coming to Atlanta. Just as Markakis's range has improved this year compared to last while having Ender in center. To me that's real value. Whether you want to admit that or not I don't care. But I will keep providing updates as they come until the SSS is no longer small.
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I would love to hear your explanation of why Kemp's "range" value was better in some years than others. Was Ender playing next to him those years as well?
 
Enscheff said:
I would love to hear your explanation of why Kemp's "range" value was better in some years than others. Was Ender playing next to him those years as well?
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What years would these be? I don't necessarily care what Kemp did or didn't do at various points of his career. I worry about right now. And with the Braves Kemp's range value is better at any point in recent memory.
 
defensive metrics as a whole are too subjective for my liking. When you have to put 'estimates' into a calculation to get a stat then you really don't have a solid stat. it really can't factor in background interference, wind, shifts (positioning), spin, or other human elements that can come into play. It might get close, but not enough for my liking. I also don't need that stat to tell me that Kemp is not great defensively or Neck no longer has an arm and runners can go 1st to 3rd.. and that right there is another issue I have with advance stats. I really like a lot of them.. but a pitcher will suffer with a team that doesn't have a Jason H arm in RF over a team that does have him. How many 1st and 3rd situations have the Braves had this year over years past? would that make a pitchers ERA better? would that change the pitch selection? it is almost unfair to measure individual stats within a team sport..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
defensive metrics as a whole are too subjective for my liking. When you have to put 'estimates' into a calculation to get a stat then you really don't have a solid stat. it really can't factor in background interference, wind, shifts (positioning), spin, or other human elements that can come into play. It might get close, but not enough for my liking. I also don't need that stat to tell me that Kemp is not great defensively or Neck no longer has an arm and runners can go 1st to 3rd.. and that right there is another issue I have with advance stats. I really like a lot of them.. but a pitcher will suffer with a team that doesn't have a Jason H arm in RF over a team that does have him. How many 1st and 3rd situations have the Braves had this year over years past? would that make a pitchers ERA better? would that change the pitch selection? it is almost unfair to measure individual stats within a team sport..
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All of that is true and advanced stats do try to calculate for what you talked about at the end. Runners going 1st to 3rd on a particular outfielder (or not) is part of the defensive numbers (or try to be). Which is also why fangraphs likes to use FIP since it's not necessarily the pitchers fault that a runner went from 1st to 3rd on Markakis when almost every other right fielder they would have stayed at 2nd. But things like pitch selection afterwards can't be really accounted for and it is part of the game. In a 1st and 3rd situation you may be more to go for a strikeout whereas 1st and 2nd you'd be more content with a ground ball double play. Lot's of factors that can't be accounted for it. Advanced stats aren't perfect (especially defense) but I feel it does give us a better understanding of a players value. We've come a long way from looking at a players avg/homer/rbi total with fielding % as a basis of players worth.
 
50PoundHead said:
I've always looked at team defense as much as individual defense. There's no hiding a bad defender, but having a plus defender next to them can mitigate the problem somewhat. Having Inciarte in CF allows the team to position Markakis and Kemp differently, which strengthens the team defense. Does that make Kemp and Markakis good defenders? No. But they are covered somewhat by having Inciarte between them.
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The problem is the CF really can't get into areas that the LF and RF play in. And all we have to do is watch nightly to see how bad Kemp is on defense. It is pretty much not believable unless you see it in person every night. Just about every night (2 nights ago on "single" by Harper) there is a play that anyone that is a competent defender should make and Kemp cant do so.

But, maybe he will get in to shape and care next year.
 
Kemp already has a -10 DRS in Atlanta playing left field, that is in only about 300 innings too. That is terrible and quite worse than this year with the Padres in RF, where his DRS was -7 but in almost three times the innings. He is at -17 DRS on the year, if that is not a DH I don't know what it takes to make him one.
 
Braves1976 said:
Kemp already has a -10 DRS in Atlanta playing left field, that is in only about 300 innings too. That is terrible and quite worse than this year with the Padres in RF, where his DRS was -7 but in almost three times the innings. He is at -17 DRS on the year, if that is not a DH I don't know what it takes to make him one.
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Cant you find a way to spin that so that Ender helps him in the field? Asking for a friend.
 
gilesfan said:
The problem is the CF really can't get into areas that the LF and RF play in. And all we have to do is watch nightly to see how bad Kemp is on defense. It is pretty much not believable unless you see it in person every night. Just about every night (2 nights ago on "single" by Harper) there is a play that anyone that is a competent defender should make and Kemp cant do so.

But, maybe he will get in to shape and care next year.
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I'm not saying Kemp is good. I'm saying that Ender's presence makes the total outfield defense better. As I clearly stated, it doesn't make an individual bad defender good and Kemp is a bad defender. What it does is help at the margins. It's not the plays Kemp makes or doesn't make (and he doesn't make a lot of plays). It's the plays that Ender makes at the margins that mitigate, but not eliminate the weakness caused by two subpar defenders that helps the team overall.
 
gilesfan said:
The problem is the CF really can't get into areas that the LF and RF play in. And all we have to do is watch nightly to see how bad Kemp is on defense. It is pretty much not believable unless you see it in person every night. Just about every night (2 nights ago on "single" by Harper) there is a play that anyone that is a competent defender should make and Kemp cant do so.

But, maybe he will get in to shape and care next year.
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Be that as it may. UZR's suggests improvement from both Kemp and Markakis in their ability to cover ground in the outfield while having Ender in center. That's all that really matters, right?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
defensive metrics as a whole are too subjective for my liking. When you have to put 'estimates' into a calculation to get a stat then you really don't have a solid stat. it really can't factor in background interference, wind, shifts (positioning), spin, or other human elements that can come into play. It might get close, but not enough for my liking. I also don't need that stat to tell me that Kemp is not great defensively or Neck no longer has an arm and runners can go 1st to 3rd.. and that right there is another issue I have with advance stats. I really like a lot of them.. but a pitcher will suffer with a team that doesn't have a Jason H arm in RF over a team that does have him. How many 1st and 3rd situations have the Braves had this year over years past? would that make a pitchers ERA better? would that change the pitch selection? it is almost unfair to measure individual stats within a team sport..
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All of this is true, which is why no stat should be taken as gospel; they should all be taken for what they are and what they measure. ERA, BA, and all the traditional stats also don't take that stuff into account, but I do think some of the advanced metrics try to account for that more than the older stats.

I like primarily looking at a player's slash line, for instance, because I know exactly what those numbers tell me. I also like looking at a player's WAR to see if it seems to line up with what the other stats tell me about the player...and if not, I try to figure out why, and I often then find out more about the player that way than I knew before. But I don't just see WAR and say, oh, he's barely better than ___ because his WAR is slightly better.
 
In other news, Olivera was convicted in his domestic violence case, sentenced to 90 days in prison, but was given credit for 80.....Wonder if they will make him serve the remainder?
 
Braves1976 said:
Kemp already has a -10 DRS in Atlanta playing left field, that is in only about 300 innings too. That is terrible and quite worse than this year with the Padres in RF, where his DRS was -7 but in almost three times the innings. He is at -17 DRS on the year, if that is not a DH I don't know what it takes to make him one.
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The adoption of the DH in the NL. :happy0157::happy0157::happy0157:

Just one of those situations where his bat is going to make them keep running him out there regardless because he makes the lineup deeper and provides that "protection with pop" for Freddie no matter how bad his glove is. I think we all get how much and why the folks that are big believers in defensive metrics hate that, and nobody's questioning that stance (whether they're big on defensive metrics or not). It's a lot like Baltimore and Trumbo - get him at least 3 PAs every night and hope he produces more runs than he lets in.

If this team were remotely close to contention, I'd fully expect to see someone else out there on defense in the late innings when they had a lead. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him lose some starts to Mallex next season if Mallex or Inciarte isn't traded for a significant upgrade at 3B (if they're willing to include the pieces it would take to get Longoria perhaps). The thing is, isn't having Kemp out there late letting runs in during a lost season like this a perfect way to deflect "tanking" criticism? The brass can say "we're trying to win games and score runs" with him even though they know his glove is actually hurting them late in games.

I'd think it would be hard to disagree with someone who said "they could've just done the same thing if they'd have kept Gattis and had more money to spend" except for the fact that Gattis and the extra money likely wouldn't be better than Kemp + Folty (even without including potential contributions from Ruiz). Would that extra money be spent on a Pitcher with more upside than Folty this winter, and if so, which one?

In a "perfect world" - mine, anyway - they will include Mallex and the necessary pieces to get Longoria this winter and be able to get Mac, and Peterson and Albies are ready to make the jump relatively early next season. Then you wouldn't completely sacrifice offense to hide Kemp's glove until the DH is adopted.

CF-Inciarte, SS- Swanson, 1B- Freeman, 3B- Longoria, C- Mac, LF- Kemp, RF- Markakis, 2B- Peterson, P

If (fingers crossed) we get the DH as early as next season, you could play (and even potentially platoon) the Petersons in LF when Ozzie is ready to play every day as well as DH Mac on days you actually did play Kemp in LF.
 
clvclv said:
The adoption of the DH in the NL. :happy0157::happy0157::happy0157:

Just one of those situations where his bat is going to make them keep running him out there regardless because he makes the lineup deeper and provides that "protection with pop" for Freddie no matter how bad his glove is. I think we all get how much and why the folks that are big believers in defensive metrics hate that, and nobody's questioning that stance (whether they're big on defensive metrics or not). It's a lot like Baltimore and Trumbo - get him at least 3 PAs every night and hope he produces more runs than he lets in.

If this team were remotely close to contention, I'd fully expect to see someone else out there on defense in the late innings when they had a lead. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him lose some starts to Mallex next season if Mallex or Inciarte isn't traded for a significant upgrade at 3B (if they're willing to include the pieces it would take to get Longoria perhaps). The thing is, isn't having Kemp out there late letting runs in during a lost season like this a perfect way to deflect "tanking" criticism? The brass can say "we're trying to win games and score runs" with him even though they know his glove is actually hurting them late in games.

I'd think it would be hard to disagree with someone who said "they could've just done the same thing if they'd have kept Gattis and had more money to spend" except for the fact that Gattis and the extra money likely wouldn't be better than Kemp + Folty (even without including potential contributions from Ruiz). Would that extra money be spent on a Pitcher with more upside than Folty this winter, and if so, which one?

In a "perfect world" - mine, anyway - they will include Mallex and the necessary pieces to get Longoria this winter and be able to get Mac, and Peterson and Albies are ready to make the jump relatively early next season. Then you wouldn't completely sacrifice offense to hide Kemp's glove until the DH is adopted.

CF-Inciarte, SS- Swanson, 1B- Freeman, 3B- Longoria, C- Mac, LF- Kemp, RF- Markakis, 2B- Peterson, P

If (fingers crossed) we get the DH as early as next season, you could play (and even potentially platoon) the Petersons in LF when Ozzie is ready to play every day as well as DH Mac on days you actually did play Kemp in LF.
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I like your plan. Makes total sense from our end. But from Tampa's end, don't they have the same problem we have? To max Mallex he needs to play CF and they've already got Kiermaier.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I like your plan. Makes total sense from our end. But from Tampa's end, don't they have the same problem we have? To max Mallex he needs to play CF and they've already got Kiermaier.
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Some teams value defense at the corners. Not sure if Tampa still operates the way they did under Maddon.
 
I've suggested this before, but there were signs Mallex isn't the Judy hitter I and others are assuming he is. If he's a 20-40 guy who hits .290 and walks a lot, now you've got a corner piece.

I like him and Inciarte. They both have extraordinary athletic intelligence. Mallex is still a frisky puppy, but he'll settle down soon enough.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I like your plan. Makes total sense from our end. But from Tampa's end, don't they have the same problem we have? To max Mallex he needs to play CF and they've already got Kiermaier.
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Definitely "the question" as far as I'm concerned. I'd think that answer lies in whether they'd be able to spin one of them in another deal to stockpile more pieces. Or whether they'd be able to get enough pieces from us to fill holes and start Mallex in AAA until they could possibly move Kiermaier.

Say Coppy & Co. were willing to move Mallex, Adonis and/or Rio, Sims, and a lower-level arm like Ellis (or someone that's not considered "elite" by our guys). That would give them their "replacement" for Longo (platoon), 2 potential near-ready rotation pieces, and Mallex to "tuck-away" for a short period. If they're still going to "wheel-and-deal" like they always have, I'd think they could easily turn Kiermaier and one of the SPs they have little control over into something like Chance Sisco and Trey Mancini. The Os could then slide Jones to a corner and would get a SP they so desperately need.

In that scenario, they'd turn Longoria, Kiermaier, and a short-term arm into Mallex, Adonis, Ruiz, Sisco, Mancini, Sims, and Ellis while saving quite a bit of $$$.
 
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