And I said I oppose an Inciarte deal, generally speaking. It depends on what you mean by 'blown away'. I think any deal involving any of those guys that makes us better than before the deal is worth doing. That should be the only consideration. I'm hesitant to trade Inciarte and Folty because I question whether that's likely in deals involving them, but would still do it if it does.
John Schuerholz on Braves Banter Podcast
- Thread starter dak
- Start date
And I said I oppose an Inciarte deal, generally speaking. It depends on what you mean by 'blown away'. I think any deal involving any of those guys that makes us better than before the deal is worth doing. That should be the only consideration. I'm hesitant to trade Inciarte and Folty because I question whether that's likely in deals involving them, but would still do it if it does.
You realize Ender is already under team control for about 4/20 right? Surely nobody values 2 Inciarte FA years at $20m per.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Thought he was one year farther along on his arb clock.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
If you're right about his arb clock, adjust the number and don't be a prick. I know he's not a $20m player.
Are you saying 7/70?
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
Lol if the braves win 80 games next season I will never post here again.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
Yeah, I'd do that. His skills should age well. What I was thinking was a good rate ($6-8m?) while he's still arb eligible then maybe $10-12m for 3 or so years thereafter. You know, the usual buyout of the arb years, but go deeper in terms of years after.
Forget Seth Beer, this is the sweepstakes we should all be rooting for.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
80 games or 80+ games? I too would take the field over any 1 specific win total.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
80 wins minimum is what I was laughing at. One specific number is pretty difficult to guess though.
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
I wonder what mix of assets would be required for us to reach 80+ wins next year.
We would need to upgrade RF, 3b, and catcher all to some degree. We would Teheran to have a similar year, Folty to continue building on his year, and get a SP equal or greater than Teheran.
We would need to upgrade RF, 3b, and catcher all to some degree. We would Teheran to have a similar year, Folty to continue building on his year, and get a SP equal or greater than Teheran.
Braves are 24-29 since the all-star break with a team 4.87 era. Not that I expect everyone to hit next year like they have in the 2nd half right bow but pitching is clearly the teams current weakness. You have JT, Folty, and a couple of good relievers. Everyone else seems to get shelled nightly.
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
he is asking is the over/under 79.5 or 80.5
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
Well then I would say the over/under is 80.5 then.
The Braves will likely have to improve 3B and C to continue playing like this offensively considering Freeman and Inciarte were on insane hot streaks the entire month of August. A 24-29 record translate to about 73-74 wins, so improving 3B and C, adding a 3/4 pitcher to toss 180+ innings, and improvement by guys like Wisler and Folty could get this team into spitting distance of .500 next year.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
That's the thing. Freeman and Teheran are probably performing at or near their peak capability. It's likely all about maintaining and eventual decline with them. Inciarte MIGHT have more growth, but my guess is no, he's probably at his best value now.
So, that means improvement next year has to come from others, both inside and outside the organization, while Freeman, Teheran and Inciarte all at least maintain (if any of those three get hurt for half the year then there's no chance, the margin for error is razor thin).
To me, the bottom line is, that not enough of the Braves young talent will be ready, not enough FA possibilities that are both realistic and a fit that will move the needle are available.
For the Braves to finish .500 next year, the porridge will have to be just right. To me, that means they are jumping the gun.
Wouldn't underestimate the value of having Swanson up all year either. He's shown plus range at short so far(hopefully the errors settle down). I know he's not ready but he's playing at a 3 WAR pace right now.
Assuming health, it's not that hard to get to 80 wins on a pure WAR-driven basis. If you project something like this from the guys we have:
Freeman - 5
Inciarte - 3.5
Swanson - 3
Albies/Peterson - 2
Mallex - 2
Kemp - 1
Teheran - 4
Folly - 2
Wisler - 1
With those totals, you're sitting at 23.5 WAR, putting you around 71-72 wins. You need around 8-9 WAR at that point between 2 SP spots, 3B, C, your bullpen and your bench.
If you just add solid pieces at 3B, C, and SP, you're basically there.
Freeman - 5
Inciarte - 3.5
Swanson - 3
Albies/Peterson - 2
Mallex - 2
Kemp - 1
Teheran - 4
Folly - 2
Wisler - 1
With those totals, you're sitting at 23.5 WAR, putting you around 71-72 wins. You need around 8-9 WAR at that point between 2 SP spots, 3B, C, your bullpen and your bench.
If you just add solid pieces at 3B, C, and SP, you're basically there.
Swanson's performance has been baked into the Braves sub-.500 record since he has been on the team. I fully expect him to tighten up the D, and I imagine he will post pretty much the offensive line he is currently posting.
I also expect Inciarte and Freeman to play worse over the course of 2017 than they played in August. Inciarte has already cooled back down to his typical low 700s OPS self, and Freeman is probably not a 1.000+ OPS monster over a full year (although that is at least somewhat possible).
I agree with Harry, "going for it" in 2017 is a bad idea. It would be a mistake to trade away any prospects of value to bring in upgrades at any position at this time. They can probably trade one of Mallex or Ender if the return is a long term solution at a position of need (most likely 3B). I do think the Braves can make measured additions that don't mortgage the future in any way, like trading for Mac and signing an upgrade for 3B on a 2-3 year deal.