9/28 GDTY: Braves lineup posted before 3 p.m.!

[bravesguy]

I am not a big advanced stats guy but I understand the need for decisions by more information....however...

There is one big flaw in the advanced stats discussion. The replacement is not always available or practical for our team.

So when you say Kemp is 1.2 fWAR for the year (yay, he is better than generic replacement). The real decision that Coppy has to make is "Is he better than other options?". Compare Kemp in the lineup to Frenchy, Oliveria, or Peterson. Assuming you look only at this year, then the answer is a resounding he is better.

Now the next question is "Is he better than other options (next year)?

 

[clvclv]

I am not a big advanced stats guy but I understand the need for decisions by more information....however...

There is one big flaw in the advanced stats discussion. The replacement is not always available or practical for our team.

So when you say Kemp is 1.2 fWAR for the year (yay, he is better than generic replacement). The real decision that Coppy has to make is "Is he better than other options?". Compare Kemp in the lineup to Frenchy, Oliveria, or Peterson. Assuming you look only at this year, then the answer is a resounding he is better.

Now the next question is "Is he better than other options (next year)?

Really states what many of us who think those numbers should be a TOOL to help in the decision-making process rather than the decision-maker.

No matter how much some people whine, the games simply aren't played on paper (or a spreadsheet), and that "replacement player" contribution isn't always readily available at every spot.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

Really states what many of us who think those numbers should be a TOOL to help in the decision-making process rather than the decision-maker.

No matter how much some people whine, the games simply aren't played on paper (or a spreadsheet), and that "replacement player" contribution isn't always readily available at every spot.

For me, the tool misses so badly sometimes I just can't put my faith in it. Kemp is one of those guys. Yes, I've watched him waddle around on defense, but he makes most all the plays. And on offense he's been closer to being in the MVP discussion than the scrub the formula says he is. Total miss! Disaster! #mrpiggyformvp

 

[thewupk]

For me, the tool misses so badly sometimes I just can't put my faith in it. Kemp is one of those guys. Yes, I've watched him waddle around on defense, but he makes most all the plays. And on offense he's been closer to being in the MVP discussion than the scrub the formula says he is. Total miss! Disaster! #mrpiggyformvp

But that's not true. He certainly makes quite a few less play than an average outfielder.

 

[clvclv]

But that's not true. He certainly makes quite a few less play than an average outfielder.

Quite possibly the case. The question is, how many of those "average" defensive OFs you speak of make up for their shortcomings with the bat like he does?

Just goes back to the old school belief that if he's responsible for more runs scoring than he lets in, he's absolutely "worth it".

 

[The Tariff King]

In the spirit of thethe, I want to say I'm excited to see what Kemp can do next year after he has an offseason of lifting weights and working out.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

But that's not true. He certainly makes quite a few less play than an average outfielder.

Disagree, respectfully. Below are his Inside Edge fielding stats. There was one high profile drop of a "routine fly ball" (per Lil Guv, who was at that game in August and personally offended like it would impact his own ERA). But this year, like all the rest, he made almost all the routine plays and a few less of the tougher ones than other OFs. My conclusion? Same as what this data shows. He's OK out there.

I'll grudgingly go along with his Atlanta-extrapolated oWAR being around 3.5-4.0 (bWAR doesn't even give him that), and I'll certainly say he's worth a bit less (.5?) than a premium LF. But for me - and for most front offices, I'll wager - to say he gives back all his offensive value on defense isn't accurate. Something is going wrong with the weighting of the plays they think others are making and he's not.

Season Team Pos Inn Impossible (0%) Remote (1-10%) Unlikely (10-40%) Even (40-60%) Likely (60-90%) Routine (90-100%)

2014 Dodgers LF 369.1 0.0% (17) 0.0% (3) 12.5% (8) 66.7% (3) 100.0% (2) 100.0% (55)

2016 Braves LF 431.2 0.0% (9) 0.0% (7) 0.0% (2) 42.9% (7) 72.7% (11) 97.9% (94)

Total - - - LF 873.1 0.0% (26) 0.0% (10) 10.0% (10) 50.0% (10) 76.9% (13) 98.7% (149)

2012 Dodgers CF 911.0 0.0% (51) 20.0% (5) 25.0% (4) 87.5% (8) 85.7% (7) 99.0% (195)

2013 Dodgers CF 576.1 0.0% (42) 33.3% (3) 0.0% (5) 75.0% (4) 60.0% (5) 100.0% (126)

2014 Dodgers CF 326.0 0.0% (20) 0.0% (2) 0.0% (1) 33.3% (3) 62.5% (8) 95.8% (72)

Total - - - CF 6927.1 0.0% (113) 20.0% (10) 10.0% (10) 73.3% (15) 70.0% (20) 98.7% (393)

2014 Dodgers RF 500.1 0.0% (20) 0.0% (6) 0.0% (1) 100.0% (1) 80.0% (5) 100.0% (87)

2015 Padres RF 1282.0 0.0% (76) 7.1% (14) 22.2% (18) 66.7% (6) 60.0% (10) 98.8% (257)

2016 Padres RF 827.1 0.0% (53) 0.0% (14) 0.0% (4) 36.4% (11) 73.7% (19) 100.0% (144)

Total - - - RF 3829.2 0.0% (149) 2.9% (34) 17.4% (23) 50.0% (18) 70.6% (34) 99.4% (488)

2012 Dodgers OF 911.0 0.0% (51) 20.0% (5) 25.0% (4) 87.5% (8) 85.7% (7) 99.0% (195)

2013 Dodgers OF 576.1 0.0% (42) 33.3% (3) 0.0% (5) 75.0% (4) 60.0% (5) 100.0% (126)

2014 Dodgers OF 1195.2 0.0% (57) 0.0% (11) 10.0% (10) 57.1% (7) 73.3% (15) 98.6% (214)

2015 Padres OF 1282.0 0.0% (76) 7.1% (14) 22.2% (18) 66.7% (6) 60.0% (10) 98.8% (257)

2016 2 Teams OF 1259.0 0.0% (62) 0.0% (21) 0.0% (6) 38.9% (18) 73.3% (30) 99.2% (238)

2016 Padres OF 827.1 0.0% (53) 0.0% (14) 0.0% (4) 36.4% (11) 73.7% (19) 100.0% (144)

2016 Braves OF 431.2 0.0% (9) 0.0% (7) 0.0% (2) 42.9% (7) 72.7% (11) 97.9% (94)

Total - - - OF 11630.1 0.0% (288) 5.6% (54)

 

[thewupk]

Quite possibly the case. The question is, how many of those "average" defensive OFs you speak of make up for their shortcomings with the bat like he does?

Just goes back to the old school belief that if he's responsible for more runs scoring than he lets in, he's absolutely "worth it".

I'm not saying the acquisition is bad. I don't think it is. I feel he will certainly be worth the money the Braves are paying him with all things factored in. But he's a very poor outfielder and gives up a lot of what he creates. Still better than what we had.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

In the spirit of thethe, I want to say I'm excited to see what Kemp can do next year after he has an offseason of lifting weights and working out.

I would like to see him look at his diet and his cardio regime. He's a big man with arthritic hips. That limits some stuff. Barry Bonds (all joking aside) has become a cyclist since retiring and looks fantastic. I would think if Matt could ride and swim, that would change his equation for the better without wrecking his joints, which are surely being taxed.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

In the spirit of thethe, I want to say I'm excited to see what Kemp can do next year after he has an offseason of lifting weights and working out.

All hail thethe.

I know it's September and a lot of this will be hard to carry over to meaningful games in future years, but it's hard not to get geeked about the way this club is playing.

 

[thewupk]

Disagree, respectfully. Below are his Inside Edge fielding stats. There was one high profile drop of a "routine fly ball" (per Lil Guv, who was at that game in August and personally offended like it would impact his own ERA). But this year, like all the rest, he made almost all the routine plays and a few less of the tougher ones than other OFs. My conclusion? Same as what this data shows. He's OK out there.

But that doesn't account for his weak throwing arm and the turning of singles into doubles.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

But that doesn't account for his weak throwing and the turning of singles into doubles.

I appreciate your point and agree he leaves a lot to be desired afield. But I don't think it hurts as much as having an Inciarte or Heyward-grade fielder helps.

The other day Smoot (? I think) said he felt like the upside of quality defensive plays was worth more than the downside of only making routine ones (he used different words, but you can see what he means). I've been rolling that around and think there's something to it, though I haven't taken a stab at quantifying it.

 

[thewupk]

I appreciate your point and agree he leaves a lot to be desired afield. But I don't think it hurts as much as having an Inciarte or Heyward-grade fielder helps.

The other day Smoot (? I think) said he felt like the upside of quality defensive plays was worth more than the downside of only making routine ones (he used different words, but you can see what he means). I've been rolling that around and think there's something to it, though I haven't taken a stab at quantifying it.

I mean you can have that opinion but I just don't see it. If Heyward or Inciarte saves 10 runs then it helps just as much as it would hurt if Kemp costs the team 10 runs.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I mean you can have that opinion but I just don't see it. If Heyward or Inciarte saves 10 runs then it helps just as much as it would hurt if Kemp costs the team 10 runs.

Right. So if he doesn't get to a hit as quickly as, say, Inciarte, and the hitter takes a base, there's only a fraction of a run there, since the next batter could be retired to end the inning or hit a ringing double that would score the guy either way. If that happens once a week it's still not nearly enough to create the run impact I see passed off routinely in the dWAR statistic. I mean, he was into heavy negative runs with Atlanta a week after the trade. That can't be.

So I understand your point, for me it doesn't add up properly. That is, in my judgement, it doesn't jive with the clearer run impact of offense.

 

[thewupk]

Right. So if he doesn't get to a hit as quickly as, say, Inciarte, and the hitter takes a base, there's only a fraction of a run there, since the next batter could be retired to end the inning or hit a ringing double that would score the guy either way. If that happens once a week it's still not nearly enough to create the run impact I see passed off routinely in the dWAR statistic. I mean, he was into heavy negative runs with Atlanta a week after the trade. That can't be.

So I understand your point, for me it doesn't add up properly. That is, in my judgement, it doesn't jive with the clearer run impact of offense.

I don't think you realize how quickly those extra bases can add up. The difference between a single and a double is about 0.36 runs. So if Kemp was only to turn a single into a double every week for an entire year then that's about 9 runs he cost the team.

 

[thewupk]

Another example on how quickly extra plays(either positive or negative) can effect a players stats for a whole year. Say Kemp has 10 more hits this year than he already does. That doesn't seem like a lot. 10 hits given his hit distribution this year would be 6 singles, 2 doubles, and 2 homers. Doesn't seem like much but it would be enough to give him 40 extra points on his OPS and +10 runs offensively which equals to 1 WAR. Little things add up quickly.

 

[Enscheff]

For one 1.2 fWAR over a full season (which is what Kemp has played it) is better than 0-1 WAR which you pegged him at. So his play is exceeding what you said of him.

Based on the version of WAR you prefer. I'm (not) shocked you are only quoting the version that backs up your point.

 

[thewupk]

Based on the version of WAR you prefer. I'm (not) shocked you are only quoting the version that backs up your point.

I think DRS skews the ends too much. But if you are such a believer in it then do you agree with Ender being a 5 WAR player over a full season?

 

[Enscheff]

If you think Kemp has been worthless to the Braves because your silly-ass formula says so, you're a ****ing idiot.

Where did I say he was worthless? My formula? These are stats derived by guys who have since been hired by MLB front offices, so I'm fairly confident that folks who actually know what they are talking about know they aren't "silly-ass".

I said he would be worth 0-1 WAR overall, and I am right so far. An impact offensive player added to a completely inept lineup will improve it, even if it costs the team some run prevention. However, that doesn't change the fact that Kemp is worth 0-1 wins overall.

Your lack of reading comprehension and inability to grasp points of others makes you the ****ing idiot, and you demonstrate that idiocy over and over.

 

[Enscheff]

I think DRS skews the ends too much. But if you are such a believer in it then do you agree with Ender being a 5 WAR player over a full season?

Over that one single season? Perhaps. It is plausible he had enough chances to impact the game defensively to be worth that much, and that production can't be taken away from him. It happened, it helped his team win, period. However, it does not mean he is a 5+ WAR talent going forward since a lot of that value is based purely on the luck of his defensive chances.

That "chance based" portion of defensive metrics, along with the fact that defensive contributions can't add indefinitely, are my 2 biggest gripes with defensive metrics. I'm hoping the availability of more statcast data will enable us to boil down defensive skill to a more basic level: Who gets the best jumps? Who takes the most efficient routes? Who covers the most ground? Who makes the most accurate throws? Who gets the ball to its destination the quickest?

And you know just as well as I do that me predicting 0-1 wins for Kemp, and him posting a 2 month WAR value that extrapolates out to 1.2 wins over a full season means absolutely nothing and doesn't make me wrong. The only reason you are nitpicking to that level is because you want to have a point, no matter how small, to post against me.