Arizona Fall League Game Thread

[Russ2dollas]

He's gunna get Albies traded

Trading Albies is not crazy.

Albies maximizes his value at SS. And he can play SS. I don't know if TD has anything to do with it. But maybe it helps.

I think this is the winter where you dangle Albies for a god father offer. Young, controllable, strong defensive SS with a great hit tool. See if you can plug a bunch of holes.

I wouldn't do it unless I got someone else I thought would be a controllable 3 War player plus...but IMO you should know the market.

 

[50PoundHead]

TD has killed LH pitching. He could be a partner for Ruiz. I don't know the arm strength but if he can catch the ball then I think it's worth a shot. I'll give up the play falling out of bounds if he's solid over there, can pick it, and can kill LH.

He's athletic enough that you might be able to put him in at 2B, LF, 3B vs LH as a utility guy.

The K rate has to come down. But he's still relatively young. Bat speed is crazy.....the anti Riley.

Peterson has me excited as a potential RF as soon as next year. I know he's never played RF but every article I see seems to think he hits enough to leave replacement level in the dust. I think he can play as well as gold glove finalist Markakis. Drafted as a 3B I assume he has a better arm than Markakis.

Speaking of, is there a place Braves' fans can vote for Nick?

 

[smootness]

So how valuable is an elite defender at 2B with poor contact skills, plus power and decent walk rate? Let's say a .235/.305/.450 line with 20+ HRs, to go along with above average base running contributions? Perhaps a ~2 WAR guy if it all pans out and he plays every day? Certainly NOT a guy to even consider playing instead of Albies who should be a regular 3-4 WAR guy.

I mean, that profile would be more like a 3-4 WAR guy. That would be very much like Baez this year, and in 450 PAs, he put up between 2.7-3.4 WAR with that package. I think you're selling that line a little short.

 

[rico43]

Game of November 1st

Peoria 12, Salt River 2

Peterson 1-4, 2B, RBI, 2 K

Phillips 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K

 

[Southcack77]

Trading Albies is not crazy.

Albies maximizes his value at SS. And he can play SS. I don't know if TD has anything to do with it. But maybe it helps.

I think this is the winter where you dangle Albies for a god father offer. Young, controllable, strong defensive SS with a great hit tool. See if you can plug a bunch of holes.

I wouldn't do it unless I got someone else I thought would be a controllable 3 War player plus...but IMO you should know the market.

I don't think it really matters where Albies maximizes his value.

Braves don't need to worry about whether he can play SS effectively. They just need to worry about whether they can trade him for something that helps them win more games than keeping him at 2B.

If another team values him as a SS and is willing to trade something of immediate greater value to Atlanta, then sure. But Braves should not spend any time worrying about whether he plays better at SS in a platonic ideal.

 

[clvclv]

Trading Albies is not crazy.

Albies maximizes his value at SS. And he can play SS. I don't know if TD has anything to do with it. But maybe it helps.

I think this is the winter where you dangle Albies for a god father offer. Young, controllable, strong defensive SS with a great hit tool. See if you can plug a bunch of holes.

I wouldn't do it unless I got someone else I thought would be a controllable 3 War player plus...but IMO you should know the market.

The only problem here is that you overlook the fact that the Braves likely view Ozzie as a "core piece" rather than an "asset" - much like Julio and Freeman.

No need to get into whether that's "right or wrong" or "maximizes his value" - just more than likely a fact from their perspective. They created the spot for him when they traded Peraza because they viewed him as their "SS of the future" - acquiring Swanson might've adjusted his position for the brass, but Jace or Demeritte probably haven't done nearly enough to convince them that they're capable enough options to replace him long-term unless trading him gets them a true "Ace". Keeping him gives you 4 plus position players in Freeman, Swanson, Inciarte, and Albies - not sure many teams would give that up unless they were getting a "sure thing".

Theo and Jed wouldn't give up Baez or Soler for Julio - not sure why Coppy should give up Albies for less personally.

 

[zbhargrove]

Its funny to me... when Peraza was our best prospect, it was the consensus that it would be insane to trade him. And then everyone got into group think and thought it was a great idea. Seems like the same thing is happening with Albies now. Last year and most of this year, Albies was our most untouchable prospect ever... now everyone seems to be interested in at least throwing the idea out there. If the right deal came along, I'd listen, but its just quite funny to observe the rapidly changing fan opinions.

 

[rico43]

Game of November 2nd

Scottsdale @ Salt River (10-8), 2:35

SP: Ellis (1-0)

 

[KB21]

Its funny to me... when Peraza was our best prospect, it was the consensus that it would be insane to trade him. And then everyone got into group think and thought it was a great idea. Seems like the same thing is happening with Albies now. Last year and most of this year, Albies was our most untouchable prospect ever... now everyone seems to be interested in at least throwing the idea out there. If the right deal came along, I'd listen, but its just quite funny to observe the rapidly changing fan opinions.

The difference is, Peraza was the top prospect in the system when the system was much weaker than it currently is. Ozzie is the cream of a strong crop though. Ozzie completely obliterated AA pitching as a 19 year old.

 

[clvclv]

Its funny to me... when Peraza was our best prospect, it was the consensus that it would be insane to trade him. And then everyone got into group think and thought it was a great idea. Seems like the same thing is happening with Albies now. Last year and most of this year, Albies was our most untouchable prospect ever... now everyone seems to be interested in at least throwing the idea out there. If the right deal came along, I'd listen, but its just quite funny to observe the rapidly changing fan opinions.

I think it really has more to do with timing than anything else personally. I'd imagine you have to at least listen on anyone up to a point in time - I'd guess that there were even discussions about Julio, Heyward, and Freeman when they were still prospects as well. When they get to the point that they're ready to step into the lineup and become integral pieces of the big club, the asking price to include them in any sort of deal becomes so astronomical that it's pretty much a non-starter because the brass (whomever it was at those times just as Coppy & Company now) will automatically say "no" unless they're getting at least one cheap, controllable piece that's ready to step in NOW instead of a couple years down the road.

That's why most of us assume (correctly IMO) that Boston was told that any discussion about Julio HAD to start with Moncada or Benintendi plus, Houston was told that any discussion had to start with Bregman plus, the Yankees were told that any discussion had to start with Sanchez and Kapreilian, and on and on, or Coppy wasn't going to waste either side's time. You're not getting my "answer" who I control for at least 6 years with "non-core" prospects who can't step in and help me tomorrow - it's going to be painful.

Albies is "ready", it's now just a question of when they start his clock. The surplus value for the first 3 years (like Swanson) when he's promoted is likely to be so enormous that the haul for him would probably have to include a cheap rotation piece that projects to be better than Folty over the next 5 years (given the makeup of the current roster and positions our close to ready prospects play).

 

[rico43]

Ozzie's readiness now relates to how quickly he is cleared after his serious fractured elbow. It may not be his throwing arm, but the torque of hitting broke it the first time, so he'd better be 99.9 percent ready before he's allowed to swing a bat again. The Braves can afford to wait.

 

[clvclv]

Braves in other offseason leagues...

Carlos Franco (Dominican) - .267, 1 HR
Ronnier Mustelier (Mexican) - .397, 1 HR, 7 BBs
Joey Meneses (Mexican) - .296, 4 HRs, 4 BBs
Jonathan Morales (Puerto Rican) - .167

 

[Enscheff]

I mean, that profile would be more like a 3-4 WAR guy. That would be very much like Baez this year, and in 450 PAs, he put up between 2.7-3.4 WAR with that package. I think you're selling that line a little short.

Yeah you're right. I tend to give less credit when a guy's value is mostly defense, since I think defensive metrics are wrong towards the high end (I disagree that defensive contributions continue to be linearly additive all the way up the scale, and instead suffer from diminishing returns).

Baez just put up a 3 WAR season with a .273/.314/.423 (.737 OPS) line and elite defense, so that's pretty much exactly what we are talking about with TD. However, looking into what Baez did in the minors, I see an .886 career OPS with a 25% K rate, which is much better than TD's .824 OPS and 34% K rate.

Comparing the 2, I think I may have been overly optimistic on TD's most likely MLB line, which will probably be something like .230/.290/.380 if he keeps his current trajectory. That is unplayable bad. He will have to dramatically improve his K rate just to get to Baez's current offensive production and have a chance at being a 3+ WAR player.

If he doesn't maintain this recent improvement in his K rate he likely won't make it out of AA when those more advanced pitchers absolutely carve him up into shreds.

 

[smootness]

Yeah you're right. I tend to give less credit when a guy's value is mostly defense, since I think defensive metrics are wrong towards the high end (I disagree that defensive contributions continue to be linearly additive all the way up the scale, and instead suffer from diminishing returns).

Baez just put up a 3 WAR season with a .273/.314/.423 (.737 OPS) line and elite defense, so that's pretty much exactly what we are talking about with TD. However, looking into what Baez did in the minors, I see an .886 career OPS with a 25% K rate, which is much better than TD's .824 OPS and 34% K rate.

Comparing the 2, I think I may have been overly optimistic on TD's most likely MLB line, which will probably be something like .230/.290/.380 if he keeps his current trajectory. That is unplayable bad. He will have to dramatically improve his K rate just to get to Baez's current offensive production and have a chance at being a 3+ WAR player.

If he doesn't maintain this recent improvement in his K rate he likely won't make it out of AA when those more advanced pitchers absolutely carve him up into shreds.

You're also assuming that Baez's .737 OPS in the majors is who he is, instead of possibly a low-water mark for a guy still young and learning. I wouldn't take his line this year and say, since an .880 OPS guys with a 25% K rate is a .737 OPS hitter in the majors, then a guy with a lower OPS and worse K rate is below a .700 OPS hitter. Because I think it's very likely Baez's line increases by quite a bit soon.

It's also a bit strange that you dropped just 5 points off his BA for your new projection buy 70 points off his SLG.

But anyway, I'm not trying to project Demeritte, just saying that if he did put up that line, he'd be worth more than you initially gave him credit for. Baez put up a 3 WAR season, but in only 450 PAs. So if you project it to a full year, it's about 4.

 

[Enscheff]

You're also assuming that Baez's .737 OPS in the majors is who he is, instead of possibly a low-water mark for a guy still young and learning. I wouldn't take his line this year and say, since an .880 OPS guys with a 25% K rate is a .737 OPS hitter in the majors, then a guy with a lower OPS and worse K rate is below a .700 OPS hitter. Because I think it's very likely Baez's line increases by quite a bit soon.

It's also a bit strange that you dropped just 5 points off his BA for your new projection buy 70 points off his SLG.

But anyway, I'm not trying to project Demeritte, just saying that if he did put up that line, he'd be worth more than you initially gave him credit for. Baez put up a 3 WAR season, but in only 450 PAs. So if you project it to a full year, it's about 4.

Mainly because I WAY overestimated his likely slugging in my first projection, and realized it when I started looking at Baez's numbers.

I find it highly unlikely that Travis Demeritte has more power potential than Javier Baez, so it stands to reason that since TD has put up worse K rates and less power in the minors than Baez did, he will also put up worse numbers at the MLB level than Baez has to this point.

 

[zbhargrove]

The difference is, Peraza was the top prospect in the system when the system was much weaker than it currently is. Ozzie is the cream of a strong crop though. Ozzie completely obliterated AA pitching as a 19 year old.

It's still humorous and I think people are forgetting how good Peraza was in the minors. Granted he was no Albies

 

[smootness]

Mainly because I WAY overestimated his likely slugging in my first projection, and realized it when I started looking at Baez's numbers.

I find it highly unlikely that Travis Demeritte has more power potential than Javier Baez, so it stands to reason that since TD has put up worse K rates and less power in the minors than Baez did, he will also put up worse numbers at the MLB level than Baez has to this point.

I understand that logic. But again, Baez is not yet what he likely will be. So it makes no sense to compare Demeritte's ultimate potential to Baez as a guy just starting in the majors.

It would be like saying that since a minor league player has shown slightly less power potential in the minors than Griffey, and since Griffey hit 16 HR as a rookie, that player's power potential is about 12-15 HR. Because a few years later Griffey was hitting 40+.

 

[Chico]

I try not to get too caught up in comps, but Marcus Semien could be another one.

 

[Enscheff]

I understand that logic. But again, Baez is not yet what he likely will be. So it makes no sense to compare Demeritte's ultimate potential to Baez as a guy just starting in the majors.

It would be like saying that since a minor league player has shown slightly less power potential in the minors than Griffey, and since Griffey hit 16 HR as a rookie, that player's power potential is about 12-15 HR. Because a few years later Griffey was hitting 40+.

Then it is also folly to project TD's improvement as if Baez is a sure bet to improve further. This WS has shown just how bad Baez can be, immediately after being brilliant the rest of the postseason. It is very probable that Baez is what he is and won't ever learn to recognize breaking pitches. It is also possible he improves. What is absolutely certain is TD is nowhere near the prospect that Baez is/was, so calling him a "poor man's Baez" is probably overstating him by quite a bit.

Texas gave TD away for a reason, and it's not because they think he has a good chance at improving his hit tool. Maybe he will, but the most likely (by far) outcome is that he turns into utility guy with decent power who is a non-tender candidate once he hits Arb 1/2. Expecting him to be any more than that is simply poor talent management.

 

[smootness]

Then it is also folly to project TD's improvement as if Baez is a sure bet to improve further. This WS has shown just how bad Baez can be, immediately after being brilliant the rest of the postseason. It is very probable that Baez is what he is and won't ever learn to recognize breaking pitches. It is also possible he improves. What is absolutely certain is TD is nowhere near the prospect that Baez is/was, so calling him a "poor man's Baez" is probably overstating him by quite a bit.

Texas gave TD away for a reason, and it's not because they think he has a good chance at improving his hit tool. Maybe he will, but the most likely (by far) outcome is that he turns into utility guy with decent power who is a non-tender candidate once he hits Arb 1/2. Expecting him to be any more than that is simply poor talent management.

It's 'very probably' that Baez is never more than a low-.700s OPS guy? That seems like an extreme over-exaggeration.

And again, this is NOT an attempt by me to bump up a projection on Demeritte. I never intended to go that route. I was just pointing out that the initial line you posted is worth more than the value you assigned to it.