2016-2017 Off-Season Thread
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I would try to market Abreu to Houston. Ask for Reed, Tucker, Cameron and JD Davis.
Quintana to the Gnats for Giolito, Robles, Dunning
Frazier and Robertson to the Dodgers for Jose Deleon, Jordan Sheffield and Sterling Heredia
And they still have some nice pieces they could move.
Goodness, those prices are too high across the board.
Agreed. People are getting ahead of themselves with valuations and what sale got. The return for sale was absurd because he'd 27 and one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Quintana should get them about the same that Sale did give his incredible track record and added years of control though.
Yup. 2 top 10ish prospects may be a little high but a Robles/Lopez starting point for him would be about right.
You could be right but nobody is trading a prospect like moncada for him IMO.
Don't you think the red sox could have had Quintana if they wanted? They chose Sale because he is more valuable.
Valuable is a relative term. They targeted Sale because he is the better pitcher. WS may not want to trade Quintana since he's signed to a longer deal.
Everything is relative I agree. That's why using a flat calculation of $ per war is not the best approach.
But again, Sale will always be more valuable if the contracts are not vastly different. You have a better chance of winning when Sale is on the mound and that's what matters most.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
It's absolutely relative and depends on the team. To a team that's REALLY close, I think Quintana and Archer would both be more valuable. To a WS contender, no doubt Sale would be. Atlanta is kind of stuck right behind really close contender. I've said it before, but we shouldn't go after these arms unless the price is right. A rotation with an added guy like Quintana would be phenomenal for us, but we aren't going anywhere -- yet. Now next year, it just might be the perfect move.
$ per WAR works because that's what actual teams pay for it on average.
For a team like the Red Sox Sale will be more valuable because he's the better talent. But to another team having Quintana (4 WAR per year) for 4 years can be seen as better than Sale (5 WAR per year) for 3 years. I would argue that the Braves would be one of those teams.
If the player is a stud then I don't think it matters how much they are paid. What kills any team is paying crappy players (BJ / Uggla / KK) irregardless of what their salary figure is. Of course there's a threshold but I don't see how any team that cares about winning could value Quintana over sale. This isn't to disparage Quintana at all but Sale so far in his career is pitching like one of the best of all time.
Yes I agree. A rebuilding team that's a couple of years away should not trade for Sale. That's why these generic statements on value aren't absolute despite what a lot of people say.
Sale is not pitching like the best of all time. Let's not get carried away here. He's great pitcher but unless something changes with him there are a few like him every generation. Contract length and salary absolutely matter when determining the value of a player along with that players actual talent.
Just because a team like the Braves shouldn't trade for Sale due to their contention timeline doesn't mean we don't know what Sales trade value would bring back. We knew that he had something like 80-100 million in surplus value and the White Sox got that back in prospects.
If Quintana was traded the Sox would be looking to get similar value back in prospects. For a Nats trade that would likely be Robles and Lopez and maybe a C prospect.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
I'm just excited to see where we are after this year. Hopefully we are ahead of schedule and pulling 85+ wins, and there's a chance of that, but I'm thinking 75-80 still sounds right -- which means stick to your young guys like glue this year.
I'm not sure if the package values match up exactly, but those are definitely scenarios that make sense. The ChiSox could be very good very soon. They are basically trading their MLB talent for the cream of every other team's prospect system.
I think the ChiSox are about to rewrite the book on optimal rebuild strategy. The crux of that strategy is to strike sooner rather than later when your players are at max value.
The crux is also to have elite or near-elite talent and already have them signed to extensions. But yes, they have an opportunity to grab a lot of talent quickly.
I still don't see any way they're able to bring back that many top prospects. I would say it would be something closer to: Abreu for Reed and Tucker; Quintana for Giolito, Fedde, and some more; Frazier and Robertson for Sheffield and Heredia. I just don't see the Astros giving up all that for Abreu, the Nats including both Giolito and Robles for anything less than an elite player, and the Dodgers giving up De Leon for that mediocre package.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
They may not. But, coming out of the current trade market (not just the Sales deal) I think it's the starting ask for the Chisox.
Abreu is probably ~7th best 1B in the game, relatively young and signed to a relatively cheap long term deal. Reed has failed at his ML debut and hurt his value (one of the risks of rushing players). Tucker is a top 100 prospect. Cameron and Davis are currently NOT top 100 prospects.
Quintana is the second most valuable trade chip in baseball this offseason after Sale. His results, age, contract all line up for a huge return. If Sale was worth Giolito, Robles, Lopez, + then I think Quintana gets you Giolito, Robles plus another whether that is Dunning or not.
The Dodgers trade, De Leon is the only top 100 guy. The other two COULD be but aren't today. I think Robertson gets you at least one top 100 guy and Frazier gets you a prospect just outside the top 100, so combined, the sox would get De Leon, Sheffield, Heredia.
Not saying its what I would want to pay BUT I think this is the market right now, one of the reasons the Braves shouldn't be so close minded about moving ML parts that will hurt short term but help long term if the return is right.