It's easy if all they have is power. I thought you were against these types of players.
Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects
- Thread starter CJ9
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It's easy if all they have is power. I thought you were against these types of players.
sturg33
I
I promise you it's OK to admit the FO may have made a mistake.
Would you honestly not trade anderson for Lewis right now?
Depends on the mix of players. I prefer contact low walk players but if you have a team littered with those players it makes sense to have a Matt Kemp type.
I understand what people are saying in regards to Ian.... he doesn't have a fastball like Pint or a knee-buckling curve... .but his overall toolset is pretty good for a HS arm. I'm excited to see what we have in him.
He was a cost-savings move, would he have been the #3 pick if there was no slotting system? I doubt it, but that also doesn't mean he won't go on to be a really good pitcher for us.
He was a cost-savings move, would he have been the #3 pick if there was no slotting system? I doubt it, but that also doesn't mean he won't go on to be a really good pitcher for us.
How am I supposed to answer that question? I have no clue which player is better. All I'm dating is you can't say they made a mistake. I'm not saying definitively that they made the right decision.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Likely not seeing Lewis will miss half the year recovering from surgery.
I see your point here, as its been made a lot.
I think people discount a bit of how well regarded Anderson was late in the draft process. He was a top 10-12 pick for most scouts with late helium.
They MAY have made a mistake, its also OK to say Anderson might have been the right pick.
If we could ignore the injury for a second, I would trade Anderson for Lewis, but had we drafted Lewis (despite what Enscheff says) there's no guarantee he'd sign for way below slot and we might not be able to draft Wentz/Muller/Cumberland/Wilson.... so would I trade potentially Anderson/Muller/Wilson for Lewis? It gets harder to make those decisions.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Time will have to tell on this one. He certainly has a nice stint in short season ball at 21 before tearing his ACL, but like Anderson he's pretty far away from breaking into the big leagues.
If he's Justin Upton then Braves may regret their pick. If he's just a .260 15 hr corner outfielder that's something of value, but maybe not a big regret.
This is not true. His value was on the upswing at the time of the draft, so his ranking on draft boards was still lagging behind.
He also performed very well in limited action last year.
striker42
Well-known member
I think the reason I'm not high on Anderson is that when I look at a prospect (especially a pitching prospect), I like to see something that's really exceptional that they can hang their hat on. Something they can ride to the majors on. Fried, Allard, and Touki have curveballs that are really, really special and that they can pair with good fastballs. Newcomb has effortless velocity from the left side that he can keep late into the game. Soroka has control beyond his years. Gohara can flirt with triple digits.
With Anderson, you see the word "good" a lot. He has a good fastball that has good movement but he lacks elite velocity and struggles to maintain velocity late into games. His curve and changeup both project as above average but neither one is a trademark pitch. He's also supposed to have good control. But he doesn't have anything that's really great. If he can develop his curve or changeup into a devastating pitch or if he can add enough velocity to his fastball so that it sits 94-97 throughout the game then he can really take it to the next level.
Right now, he reminds me of Matt Wisler. A collection of good pitches to pair with good control which is enough to rack up some nice numbers at lower levels but which doesn't play in the majors without something to hang your hat on. In fact, I think Wisler's a pretty good comp.
With Anderson, you see the word "good" a lot. He has a good fastball that has good movement but he lacks elite velocity and struggles to maintain velocity late into games. His curve and changeup both project as above average but neither one is a trademark pitch. He's also supposed to have good control. But he doesn't have anything that's really great. If he can develop his curve or changeup into a devastating pitch or if he can add enough velocity to his fastball so that it sits 94-97 throughout the game then he can really take it to the next level.
Right now, he reminds me of Matt Wisler. A collection of good pitches to pair with good control which is enough to rack up some nice numbers at lower levels but which doesn't play in the majors without something to hang your hat on. In fact, I think Wisler's a pretty good comp.
Power bats who don't make enough contact aren't valuable. The Braves decided he had too much swing-and-miss and wouldn't be an impact bat down the road. They certainly could turn out to be wrong, but just because he's a power bat who is ranked ahead of Anderson less than a year after the draft doesn't make it a bad decision or a missed opportunity.
I said at the time I wanted Lewis, and I would still make that swap. But the FO wouldn't, and that's all we know at this point. We have no idea who is right yet.
I think just about any scout would tell you Anderson has clearly better natural stuff than Wisler does.
The things that Anderson brings are good stuff (true, perhaps he doesn't have any elite pitch), already has 4 pitches, which is pretty rare for someone that age, and from what I've read, he has great command for his age. You like Soroka, and Anderson can have that kind of control but with an even better mix of pitches.
I think the fact that we signed him for under slot and then signed Wentz/Muller for over slot is clouding people's thoughts on Anderson. That does not mean that he wasn't the guy we really wanted at 3 or that he was taken higher than he should have been.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I would have rather had Lewis than Anderson in the draft... not ashamed to say that, but I wouldn't trade him for Anderson now. The injury makes me nervous.
striker42
Well-known member
I don't see Anderson having Soroka like control. While we're talking about small sample sizes, Soroka last year put up BB rates half of what Anderson did at the same level. Anderson would have to jump to Rome and put up the same walk rate there that he did in the GCL to be on Soroka's level.
I don't think there's a huge difference in the natural stuff between Wisler and Anderson. Anderson's might be a little better but not a meaningful amoun. It is true that Anderson's stuff might develop better than Wisler's did. Anderson could still develop that out pitch that will take him to the next level. But that's all projection. Right now I'm looking at Anderson and seeing a guy who is all around good but with nothing great. That's Matt Wisler.
Maybe Anderson develops something exceptional. Maybe he doesn't. But I think that will be what defines his career.
I'm not against the plan of taking Anderson to get Wentz and Muller. It might not have been my preferred route but the end result was at least defensible. But I think we're fooling ourselves if we think we draft Anderson at 3 without a discount. If he was going to demand full slot then I don't see any way he goes at 3.
It was mentioned, but I think people are overlooking perhaps the most surprising and optimistic thing about this - Pache being just outside the top 100 already.
Just for the record, for those who think our system is destined to start dropping soon or won't still be in competition for the best in baseball a year from now - there are 23 players on this list younger than 20. We have 5 of them, including the youngest player on the list. We also have 2 on the list who are 20 and two who just missed who are 18.
Just for the record, for those who think our system is destined to start dropping soon or won't still be in competition for the best in baseball a year from now - there are 23 players on this list younger than 20. We have 5 of them, including the youngest player on the list. We also have 2 on the list who are 20 and two who just missed who are 18.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Pache is about to get damn exciting.... Cruz also I believe... can't wait to see him rebound in Danville after he just tore up the GCL
There's not a player left in the draft who would have taken full slot at 3, though, outside of perhaps Groome or Pint. If you had to pay every player the slot value of where they were taken, then yes, I think it's possible we take Anderson. We clearly just didn't like Lewis there, and neither did the 4 teams who drafted after us.
Funny thing about everyone being so down on Anderson. He's been ranked higher on EVERY list than Fried, and Fried's been one of the most impressive Pitchers in camp this spring.
Also FWIW, there were 7 players 18 years old or younger ranked ahead of him on this list, and one of them was Maitan. Perspective, please.
Just sayin'.
Also FWIW, there were 7 players 18 years old or younger ranked ahead of him on this list, and one of them was Maitan. Perspective, please.
Just sayin'.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Fried also has a big injury concern and he's pitched vs much younger competition.... prospect fatigue... makes perfect sense and how prospect rankings are usually handled
I wanted Lewis, but I'm happy with Anderson. Would I rather have Lewis? Probably, but it has nothing to do with organizational need. It's mostly due to the higher risk of busting.