Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

Kemp was brought in to hit and if he hits like this then nobody is going to complain for obvious reasons. It becomes an issue if he hits like he did the last two seasons when his OBP hovered around 300 and had less than great power or like he did in 2013.
 
TheBravos said:
I really don't get the point of this. You don't buy a rooster for eggs. It's like having a deep discussion on where Inciarte ranks as a homerun hitter.

We know Inciarte is a great defensive player with limited power. We know Kemp is a average at best defender, but can mash the ball.

Sure, there are a few outfielders that hit for power, average and are excellent defenders....we will not be able to afford one unless he's home grown because they are RARE. We couldn't afford Jhey who would be in that category and his hitting comes and goes.

You don't need all quick guys that can cover an acre in 2 seconds and you don't need all big slow power guys (note 80% fall in one category or another). Kemp is what he is, just like Inciarte is what he is.

Kemp was brought in to hit....he's doing better than expected. I never hoped for him to be a stellar defensive guy (that's a pipe dream). He has done better than expected in the field also. Win/Win.
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The point of this is to laugh at Enscheff.
 
smootness said:
Then what explains his worse-than-ever defensive numbers in Atlanta last year?
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Kemp rated very poorly with his arm after coming to Atlanta. His actual rating (at least via UZR) on his range (which is what Statcast here essentially tracks) did improve when coming to Atlanta by a couple of runs when you prorate it. His prorated numbers this year have him improving by a couple more runs as well. All together it's still very small samples though.
 
thewupk said:
Kemp was brought in to hit and if he hits like this then nobody is going to complain for obvious reasons. It becomes an issue if he hits like he did the last two seasons when his OBP hovered around 300 and had less than great power or like he did in 2013.
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Only people on here do still complain about him on here daily.
 
Also get a kick out of everyone saying Kemp was a below average hitter when he came over last year... even after he started mashing.
 
zbhargrove said:
Only people on here do still complain about him on here daily.
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I haven't seen too many Kemp sucks posts this year. Other then what you get in GDT's which will always have in the moment complaining. I have seen lots of debating on whether Kemp can sustain this performance though.
 
thewupk said:
It's a broad range because that's the area where Kemp differs vastly from other LF's who are rated positively. Is each one of those plays worth a run? Well doubles are generally worth 1.27 runs when using it for offense. So yes, I can see how missing 3 plays could equate to costing the team 1-2 runs on defense. And I agree. With a 159 WRC+ it isn't a big deal. He's already +9 runs over a league average hitter so far this year with his bat.
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Ok, I've looked at the derivation of RAA and wOBA and some other stuff. I'm still not sure I'm down with the positional replacement thinking - after all, a run is a run, right? - but I buy your premise on Kemp and dWAR. Thanks for helping me through it.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Did anyone see his interview with Kelsey last night. That was strange.. KEMvP looked like he had to poop and need to leave right away. And I hate the canned answers.. X player pitched great, we hit well as a team.. complete team win tonight.. Just for once be real. "yeah, I kicked butt tonight. hopefully I saved some for tomorrow."
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That actually represents growth for him. He got in a little trouble in LA being a "personality." Better to be a ballplayer and not create controversy that is totally avoidable.

We're debating whether he can sustain his level of play, not questioning his dedication and focus. That's a good thing for Big Dick Kemp.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Ok, I've looked at the derivation of RAA and wOBA and some other stuff. I'm still not sure I'm down with the positional replacement thinking - after all, a run is a run, right? - but I buy your premise on Kemp and dWAR. Thanks for helping me through it.
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A run certainly is a run. However the way I look at it is that while Kemp is -2 runs in left it should be obvious he would be a lot worse if he played center. There has to be a way to adjust for that.
 
thewupk said:
A run certainly is a run. However the way I look at it is that while Kemp is -2 runs in left it should be obvious he would be a lot worse if he played center. There has to be a way to adjust for that.
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But he's not playing center. You don't penalize a dog for not being a cat.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
But he's not playing center. You don't penalize a dog for not being a cat.
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More to the point at center - or short, second or catcher - you have an ability to save or create more runs than you have at the other positions. So it's already accounted for in there. To penalize the stiff for standing in left rather than center is redundant.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
More to the point at center - or short, second or catcher - you have an ability to save or create more runs than you have at the other positions. So it's already accounted for in there. To penalize the stiff for standing in left rather than center is redundant.
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Those extra chances are negated because your runs saved are compared to other players at your position who would have those extra chances as well. A league average defensive shorstop has more defensive value than a league average left fielder. That shouldn't be up for debate.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
That's kinda what I've suggested a time or two - essentially weighting the defensive component less than the formulas currently do. But it hasn't been well received here.
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I don't see how it is is remotely as important as the hitting, myself.

You could go entire games without there being a chance in LF that would merit a difference between the best and worst defensive LF. As opposed to 4-5 at bats a game.

The stats boys at times will concede this is true, but nonetheless will hammer the defensive numbers again in the next moment.

I certainly do recognize that Kemp passes no eye or metric test as a great defender. If we were talking about a playoff series, I would have some real concerns. But for a team without any real aspirations playing a 162 game schedule? I'll take the hitting because that's going to prove the more valuable asset over a large sample.
 
thewupk said:
Those extra chances are negated because your runs saved are compared to other players at your position who would have those extra chances as well. A league average defensive shorstop has more defensive value than a league average left fielder. That shouldn't be up for debate.
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This is right and also wrong.

Defense at SS is clearly more valuable than defense in LF. No argument here.

We aren't constructing a list of the world's most valuable players though. We are assembling a team.

And defense in LF is less important than defense at SS. And if you are assembling a team, it's irrelevant that some replacement level SS might have better dWar than your LF.

You are only looking at the options in LF. And you could very well decide to throw an all defense LF out there to save the two or three bases a week that could be saved if you wanted to. And depending on the way your roster balanced otherwise that might not be a bad play. but it isn't going to work on every team.
 
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