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Official pre-Draft thread
- Thread starter Hudson2
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New Keith Law mock is out and it goes Wright-Greene-Gore-McKay. We take Royce Lewis at 5. He has heard we're also in on Greene, Gore, McKay and Baz.
But not Beck? So we have a stand-off between Law and Shanks lol!
More and more mocks seems to have Gore gone before #5, that's a bummer, I really like everything I've read there.
As for hitters I think I'd rather swing for the fences on Beck vs Lewis; but I'm honestly pretty interested in Haseley at this point. I totally get wanting to swing for the fences, but I love the idea of getting an advanced bat with a 55 hit tool that can play above average defense in the OF. That guy could move quickly through the system, pair up with the Swanson/Allard/Albies/Freeman core and comes with less risk. Obviously the trade off is lower ceiling, but with all the high-upside younger bats in the system I'm OK with that.
As for hitters I think I'd rather swing for the fences on Beck vs Lewis; but I'm honestly pretty interested in Haseley at this point. I totally get wanting to swing for the fences, but I love the idea of getting an advanced bat with a 55 hit tool that can play above average defense in the OF. That guy could move quickly through the system, pair up with the Swanson/Allard/Albies/Freeman core and comes with less risk. Obviously the trade off is lower ceiling, but with all the high-upside younger bats in the system I'm OK with that.
More and more mocks seems to have Gore gone before #5, that's a bummer, I really like everything I've read there.
As for hitters I think I'd rather swing for the fences on Beck vs Lewis; but I'm honestly pretty interested in Haseley at this point. I totally get wanting to swing for the fences, but I love the idea of getting an advanced bat with a 55 hit tool that can play above average defense in the OF. That guy could move quickly through the system, pair up with the Swanson/Allard/Albies/Freeman core and comes with less risk. Obviously the trade off is lower ceiling, but with all the high-upside younger bats in the system I'm OK with that.
I just generally want the deciding factor to be upside, and I'm not concerned with a specific timetable. I think the best approach is to take the best talent regardless of age or projection of when they could get to the majors. That will generally allow you to continue to possess a well-stocked farm system.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2017-mlb-mock-draft-3-5/#EqYCGY0t80YloGVY.97
Gore to Braves at 5
Beck to Rangers 26
Gore to Braves at 5
Beck to Rangers 26
Southcack77
Well-known member
Law's latest mock has Braves taking Royce Lewis apparently.
I just generally want the deciding factor to be upside, and I'm not concerned with a specific timetable. I think the best approach is to take the best talent regardless of age or projection of when they could get to the majors. That will generally allow you to continue to possess a well-stocked farm system.
I agree with you on taking the best talent, the idea that Haseley is advanced and can move quickly is just a bonus IMO.
I think my bigger point is sometimes people focus so much on upside they don't consider floor - and both of those things matter. Haseley probably has a much better chance of hitting his ceiling than Beck does. And if Haseley is a .300+ type hitter, above average defender, runner with OK power? That's a solid starter. Maybe Mark Kotsay like? That's a good thing.
Seems like you take Beck and he could easily be Lastings Milledge / Corey Patterson.
Not that there's EVER a sure thing in the draft, but opinions seem really varied on Beck and how well he will hit.
I agree with you on taking the best talent, the idea that Haseley is advanced and can move quickly is just a bonus IMO.
I think my bigger point is sometimes people focus so much on upside they don't consider floor - and both of those things matter. Haseley probably has a much better chance of hitting his ceiling than Beck does. And if Haseley is a .300+ type hitter, above average defender, runner with OK power? That's a solid starter. Maybe Mark Kotsay like? That's a good thing.
Seems like you take Beck and he could easily be Lastings Milledge / Corey Patterson.
Not that there's EVER a sure thing in the draft, but opinions seem really varied on Beck and how well he will hit.
Sure, I understand there's more risk in Beck, which is why he's fallen recently on draft boards. As the draft gets closer, you always see guys like that start to fall because teams start to hone in on the less risky options. I think your ceiling for Haseley is a bit better than Kotsay, but even still, if that's his ceiling then I don't want him. If you told me that was a likely outcome for him, sure. But as a ceiling, I want something more because chances are that even if he hits, he's more likely something like a .280 hitter with good defense and base running and below-average power. That's about an average player, and I want more than that at 5.
I know there's a chance Beck or Adell busts, but I'm ok with it. If we're drafting at 5 and you're taking a risk on anybody anyway, give me the guy with the chance to be a stud. I'd rather have an average player than a guy who offers no value, but I'd much rather have a stud than an average player.
Just from reading blurbs and scouting reports, but I'm more down in Lewis than others.
Seems like he can hit, but below average power and average arm/defense.
Speed and contact guy without great defense, doesn't sound exciting to me.
His defense apparently projects quite a bit better in CF than SS, which is where I assume most teams would put him. I think that's why he's up there so high. If he didn't project to be great in the OF, I doubt he'd be there. And his power is not great, but it's not nothing, either. He's not just a contact hitter.
But I'm with you on wanting someone else.
His defense apparently projects quite a bit better in CF than SS, which is where I assume most teams would put him. I think that's why he's up there so high. If he didn't project to be great in the OF, I doubt he'd be there. And his power is not great, but it's not nothing, either. He's not just a contact hitter.
But I'm with you on wanting someone else.
I'm just not sure how his defense projects quite a bit better in CF than SS, most reports have his arm as average, so that's not going to be an asset in CF; so basically he's just fast. Not all fast players are good outfielders.
Sure, I understand there's more risk in Beck, which is why he's fallen recently on draft boards. As the draft gets closer, you always see guys like that start to fall because teams start to hone in on the less risky options. I think your ceiling for Haseley is a bit better than Kotsay, but even still, if that's his ceiling then I don't want him. If you told me that was a likely outcome for him, sure. But as a ceiling, I want something more because chances are that even if he hits, he's more likely something like a .280 hitter with good defense and base running and below-average power. That's about an average player, and I want more than that at 5.
I know there's a chance Beck or Adell busts, but I'm ok with it. If we're drafting at 5 and you're taking a risk on anybody anyway, give me the guy with the chance to be a stud. I'd rather have an average player than a guy who offers no value, but I'd much rather have a stud than an average player.
Kotsay was just off the top of my head, I'd agree that Haseley's ceiling is probably higher than that, but this is kind of my point -- people act like getting Mark Kotsay out of the 5 spot would be disappointing -- surely its not the dream scenario; but I would consider that a big win. Kotsay from 2000-2005 (basically 6 years in his prime years) averaged 3.15 WAR a season; if the guy we pick puts up almost 20 WAR over 6 full seasons for us; that's a pretty good draft pick and a guy you can comfortably slot into the lineup for a long time.
From Longenhagen's recent look at a couple guys during the ACC tourney: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/
McCay - McKay’s fastball was 91-93 with late tail early in the game before backing down to the 88-91 range later in his start. Overall, he was mostly 90-92.
No thanks to that from a college pitcher in the Top of the draft. The only player I would be more upset if the Braves drafted him is Pratto.
Haseley - terrific in center field...He tracks pitches well and has excellent bat control...a likely above-average defender in center field, he need only make lots of contact to yield big-league value, and I think he will. I think he could be drafted as early as seventh overall.
Not someone I want to see the Braves take at #5, but better than Pratto or McCay I guess.
McCay - McKay’s fastball was 91-93 with late tail early in the game before backing down to the 88-91 range later in his start. Overall, he was mostly 90-92.
No thanks to that from a college pitcher in the Top of the draft. The only player I would be more upset if the Braves drafted him is Pratto.
Haseley - terrific in center field...He tracks pitches well and has excellent bat control...a likely above-average defender in center field, he need only make lots of contact to yield big-league value, and I think he will. I think he could be drafted as early as seventh overall.
Not someone I want to see the Braves take at #5, but better than Pratto or McCay I guess.
I'm just not sure how his defense projects quite a bit better in CF than SS, most reports have his arm as average, so that's not going to be an asset in CF; so basically he's just fast. Not all fast players are good outfielders.
But speed is a huge factor in OF defense, far more than at SS. The two positions have little in common. Simmons would not be a great CF. Billy Hamilton would likely not be a great SS.
Kotsay was just off the top of my head, I'd agree that Haseley's ceiling is probably higher than that, but this is kind of my point -- people act like getting Mark Kotsay out of the 5 spot would be disappointing -- surely its not the dream scenario; but I would consider that a big win. Kotsay from 2000-2005 (basically 6 years in his prime years) averaged 3.15 WAR a season; if the guy we pick puts up almost 20 WAR over 6 full seasons for us; that's a pretty good draft pick and a guy you can comfortably slot into the lineup for a long time.
Of course. If you guaranteed me we were getting that from Haseley, then I'm all for it. He'd probably go #1 if that was the case.
But that's his realistic ceiling, not a guarantee or even the most likely outcome. So if we're taking chances anyway, give me the guy with a much higher ceiling.
From Longenhagen's recent look at a couple guys during the ACC tourney: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/daily-prospect-notes-530/
McCay - McKay’s fastball was 91-93 with late tail early in the game before backing down to the 88-91 range later in his start. Overall, he was mostly 90-92.
No thanks to that from a college pitcher in the Top of the draft. The only player I would be more upset if the Braves drafted him is Pratto.
Haseley - terrific in center field...He tracks pitches well and has excellent bat control...a likely above-average defender in center field, he need only make lots of contact to yield big-league value, and I think he will. I think he could be drafted as early as seventh overall.
Not someone I want to see the Braves take at #5, but better than Pratto or McCay I guess.
I agree with you on McKay, but if that's your opinion on him, then how do we align that with you just wanting BPA? Because according to everybody out there who does this, McKay would easily be BPA at 5.
But speed is a huge factor in OF defense, far more than at SS. The two positions have little in common. Simmons would not be a great CF. Billy Hamilton would likely not be a great SS.
Mallex Smith isn't a great outfielder - you're right that speed obviously is a big factor in the OF, but so is a guy's arm and that's a knock on Lewis.
Just not sure how anyone can realistically count on him being a + defender in the OF if he has an average arm and he's been playing SS.
I agree with you on McKay, but if that's your opinion on him, then how do we align that with you just wanting BPA? Because according to everybody out there who does this, McKay would easily be BPA at 5.
Definition of "best" isn't static.
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