Around MLB 2017

[smootness]

And he hasn't depleted it. They have talent. Not a lot, but it's there. I think the insanely talented young guys in the majors is reason enough to not be upset with him.

I mean, their farm is depleted. Obviously it's mostly depleted because they've graduated some really good players and aren't drafting highly anymore. So for the most part their farm system has done exactly what it is supposed to do, with wild success.

But their farm system itself is certainly now depleted. It is among the worst systems in baseball. Losing Torres, Jimenez, and Cease in two deals will do that to you.

 

[sturg33]

Wren was a terrible GM for having a very talented ML roster who were young and mostly cost controlled, because he depleted the farm system

Epstein is the best GM of all time for having an extremely talented ML roster who are young and mostly cost controlled, despite depleting their farm system.

 

[Enscheff]

Wren was a terrible GM for having a very talented ML roster who were young and mostly cost controlled, because he depleted the farm system

Epstein is the best GM of all time for having an extremely talented ML roster who are young and mostly cost controlled, despite depleting their farm system.

Wren's depletion of the farm is a bit overstated.

If Wren wasn't fired, the Braves would still have Acuna and Albies. They would have signed Maitan.

Even with Wren on board, they would have still probably drafted Allard and Soroka.

 

[nsacpi]

Wren's depletion of the farm is a bit overstated.

If Wren wasn't fired, the Braves would still have Acuna and Albies. They would have signed Maitan.

Even with Wren on board, they would have still probably drafted Allard and Soroka.

We also had the following major league players under contractual control 4+ years on team friendly terms: Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Teheran, Wood, Gattis.

There was, however, a pitching "crisis" of sorts related to a really bad run of injuries involving Jurrjens, Hanson, Medlen, Minor, Beachy and Venters. They decided to go for the rebuild rather than trying to sort their way through this crisis.

 

[Southcack77]

Wren was a terrible GM for having a very talented ML roster who were young and mostly cost controlled, because he depleted the farm system

Epstein is the best GM of all time for having an extremely talented ML roster who are young and mostly cost controlled, despite depleting their farm system.

Just taking three minutes to look at the two situations is all it would take to realize these aren't remotely comparable situations.

Hitters (control):

Zobrist 2019
La Stella 2020
Schwarb 2021
Bryant 2021
Russell 2021
Baez 2021
Almora 2022
Contreras 2022
Heyward 2023
Happ 2023
Caratini 2023

Pitchers:
Hendricks 2020
Lester 2021
Quintana 2020

The Cubs also have about 150% of the Braves payroll and mostly still retain their drafted prospects.

I do think Wren deserves some understanding for the fact that he was not allowed to take a year or two to retool and his marching orders were to make the playoffs. But where the Braves were and where the Cubs are ----pretty dramatically different places.

 

[thewupk]

We also had the following major league players under contractual control 4+ years on team friendly terms: Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Teheran, Wood, Gattis.

There was, however, a pitching "crisis" of sorts related to a really bad run of injuries involving Jurrjens, Hanson, Medlen, Minor, Beachy and Venters. They decided to go for the rebuild rather than trying to sort their way through this crisis.

Had our young rotation not been decimated due to injuries things would have looked a lot differently. You can't expect everyone to stay healthy and productive but losing JJ, Hanson, Medlen, and Beachy all relatively close to each other was a kick in the nuts.

 

[DirkPiggler]

We also had the following major league players under contractual control 4+ years on team friendly terms: Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Teheran, Wood, Gattis.

There was, however, a pitching "crisis" of sorts related to a really bad run of injuries involving Jurrjens, Hanson, Medlen, Minor, Beachy and Venters. They decided to go for the rebuild rather than trying to sort their way through this crisis.

The pitching was the main problem with trying to compete in 2015. They were looking at a rotation of Teheran, Wood, and three new pitchers, with no room in the budget to bring in anyone competent to fill one of those three spots through free agency, and no help in the minors.

 

[Southcack77]

The pitching was the main problem with trying to compete in 2015. They were looking at a rotation of Teheran, Wood, and three new pitchers, with no room in the budget to bring in anyone competent to fill one of those three spots through free agency, and no help in the minors.

the hitting wasn't really that good either.

 

[Southcack77]

Had our young rotation not been decimated due to injuries things would have looked a lot differently. You can't expect everyone to stay healthy and productive but losing JJ, Hanson, Medlen, and Beachy all relatively close to each other was a kick in the nuts.

It wasn't though. What happened happened and the Braves had nowhere to go. Choose to direct the blame towards people other than Wren if you like and it would be fair, but the Braves had no real way forward.

certainly some of the problem was that they had precious salary tied up in the likes of Chris Johnson and BJ Upton for a long time to come.

 

[smootness]

Wren was a terrible GM for having a very talented ML roster who were young and mostly cost controlled, because he depleted the farm system

Epstein is the best GM of all time for having an extremely talented ML roster who are young and mostly cost controlled, despite depleting their farm system.

Years of control left:
Bryant - 4.5
Rizzo - 2.5
Russell - 4.5
Schwarber - 4.5
Baez - 4.5
Happ - 6.5
Contreras - 5.5
Heyward - 6.5
Quintana - 3.5

And the Cubs just won the WS.

Years of control left:
Heyward - 1
Freeman - 7
J Upton - 1
Simmons - 6
Gattis - 5
Teheran - 6
Kimbrel - 4
Minor - 4
Wood - 6

And the team had just won 79 games.

Which do you think was in better position?

 

[nsacpi]

The pitching was the main problem with trying to compete in 2015. They were looking at a rotation of Teheran, Wood, and three new pitchers, with no room in the budget to bring in anyone competent to fill one of those three spots through free agency, and no help in the minors.

I remember Hart saying competing in 2015 would depend on our ability to acquire a cost-controlled young starting pitcher. And his next move was to trade Heyward for Miller. But he changed his mind after that and traded Upton and Gattis...and then Kimbrel at the end of spring training....all of those trades for assets that for the most part were not major league ready. Folty had pitched some in the majors but still seemed to need some time in the minors.

 

[smootness]

We also had the following major league players under contractual control 4+ years on team friendly terms: Freeman, Simmons, Kimbrel, Teheran, Wood, Gattis.

There was, however, a pitching "crisis" of sorts related to a really bad run of injuries involving Jurrjens, Hanson, Medlen, Minor, Beachy and Venters. They decided to go for the rebuild rather than trying to sort their way through this crisis.

The problem is, we also had a middling payroll with which to build a team around them, and while that is a solid nucleus, it's not great, and Freeman wasn't yet a monster. We were pretty much looking at a rebuild of at least some kind post-2015 no matter what, as losing Heyward and Upton was going to be a big hit, and the team hadn't been good in 2014. So we were without a lot of quality pitching, we had a solid young nucleus under control, and essentially no minor league talent that was going to be ready within the next 4-5 years. So you're likely looking at a multi-year rebuild after 2014 anyway, where you're probably going to want to go ahead and sell off most of the controlled assets.

You really think we should have gone ahead with the intent to compete in 2014 the way it was shaping up?

 

[thewupk]

It wasn't though. What happened happened and the Braves had nowhere to go. Choose to direct the blame towards people other than Wren if you like and it would be fair, but the Braves had no real way forward.

certainly some of the problem was that they had precious salary tied up in the likes of Chris Johnson and BJ Upton for a long time to come.

Indeed. And if a rebuild was in order they should have went 100% at it from the start.

 

[nsacpi]

The problem is, we also had a middling payroll with which to build a team around them, and while that is a solid nucleus, it's not great, and Freeman wasn't yet a monster. We were pretty much looking at a rebuild of at least some kind post-2015 no matter what, as losing Heyward and Upton was going to be a big hit, and the team hadn't been good in 2014. So we were without a lot of quality pitching, we had a solid young nucleus under control, and essentially no minor league talent that was going to be ready within the next 4-5 years. So you're likely looking at a multi-year rebuild after 2014 anyway, where you're probably going to want to go ahead and sell off most of the controlled assets.

You really think we should have gone ahead with the intent to compete in 2014 the way it was shaping up?

I would not have been afraid to keep Heyward and Upton in 2015 and let them go to free agency. We did very well with the draft pick we got for Santana (Soroka). Not every draft pick at that point in the draft turns into a Soroka but those picks are on average fairly valuable.

I wouldn't have forced a trade for Kimbrel and would not have lessened the return by making the other team take on Melvin. I think mid-season trade for Kimbrel (whether in 2015 or 2016) would have given us a bigger return. I would have also traded Gattis to an American League team (that part lines up with what Hart did). And obviously I don't think any of us would have done the Olivera trade. The Simmons trade was also one where I think we forced things and did not get as good a return as would have been the case if we had been a bit more cagey and patient. And I would have held on to Simmons absent an exceptional offer.

Its all speculative to some extent but an "alternative future" might have looked like this:

1. Keep Wood and Peraza
2. Still have Folty, etc coming over for Gattis.
3. Better return for Kimbrel
4. Keep Simmons
5. Have 2 extra #1 picks from Heyward and Upton going to free agency
6. Still draft Allard and Soroka in 2015.
7. Have a mid-first round pick rather than the #3 (Anderson) in 2016.
8. No Ender and Dansby
9. Still have Albies, Acuna, Sims and Camargo.
10. No Olivera, hence no Kemp
11. No Markakis
12. To be fair I think in this "alternative future" we don't bust the international signing budget. So no Maitan.
13. Financially we would still have CJ and BJ contracts this year. But more flexibility after this year without Kemp and Markakis.

 

[Tapate50]

How does every thread devolve into this same discussion? Oh wait, the common denominator is Sturg33.

It needs its own home, permanently.

 

[Enscheff]

I would not have been afraid to keep Heyward and Upton in 2015 and let them go to free agency. We did very well with the draft pick we got for Santana (Soroka). Not every draft pick at that point in the draft turns into a Soroka but those picks are on average fairly valuable.

I wouldn't have forced a trade for Kimbrel and would not have lessened the return by making the other team take on Melvin. I think mid-season trade for Kimbrel (whether in 2015 or 2016) would have given us a bigger return. I would have also traded Gattis to an American League team (that part lines up with what Hart did). And obviously I don't think any of us would have done the Olivera trade. The Simmons trade was also one where I think we forced things and did not get as good a return as would have been the case if we had been a bit more cagey and patient. And I would have held on to Simmons absent an exceptional offer.

Its all speculative to some extent but an "alternative future" might have looked like this:

1. Keep Wood and Peraza

2. Still have Folty, etc coming over for Gattis.

3. Better return for Kimbrel

4. Keep Simmons

5. Have 2 extra #1 picks from Heyward and Upton going to free agency

6. Still draft Allard and Soroka in 2015.

7. Have a mid-first round pick rather than the #3 (Anderson) in 2016.

8. No Ender and Dansby

9. Still have Albies, Acuna, Sims and Camargo.

10. No Olivera, hence no Kemp

11. No Markakis

12. To be fair I think in this "alternative future" we don't bust the international signing budget. So no Maitan.

13. Financially we would still have CJ and BJ contracts this year. But more flexibility after this year without Kemp and Markakis.

I don't think I agree the Braves don't still get Maitan and Anderson in this alternate universe. The Braves were in Maitan for years, and Anderson would likely have been BPA in the middle of the first round when the Braves would have been picking.

Knowing the results of the "2017 rebuild" plan, I think I would have preferred to see the results of the "full rebuild" or "no rebuild" plans instead.

 

[Southcack77]

I would not have been afraid to keep Heyward and Upton in 2015 and let them go to free agency. We did very well with the draft pick we got for Santana (Soroka). Not every draft pick at that point in the draft turns into a Soroka but those picks are on average fairly valuable.

I wouldn't have forced a trade for Kimbrel and would not have lessened the return by making the other team take on Melvin. I think mid-season trade for Kimbrel (whether in 2015 or 2016) would have given us a bigger return. I would have also traded Gattis to an American League team (that part lines up with what Hart did). And obviously I don't think any of us would have done the Olivera trade. The Simmons trade was also one where I think we forced things and did not get as good a return as would have been the case if we had been a bit more cagey and patient. And I would have held on to Simmons absent an exceptional offer.

Its all speculative to some extent but an "alternative future" might have looked like this:

1. Keep Wood and Peraza
2. Still have Folty, etc coming over for Gattis.
3. Better return for Kimbrel
4. Keep Simmons
5. Have 2 extra #1 picks from Heyward and Upton going to free agency
6. Still draft Allard and Soroka in 2015.
7. Have a mid-first round pick rather than the #3 (Anderson) in 2016.
8. No Ender and Dansby
9. Still have Albies, Acuna, Sims and Camargo.
10. No Olivera, hence no Kemp
11. No Markakis
12. To be fair I think in this "alternative future" we don't bust the international signing budget. So no Maitan.
13. Financially we would still have CJ and BJ contracts this year. But more flexibility after this year without Kemp and Markakis.

are you advocating that this would have been better in 2015-2017 or that the rebuild would be in a better place or are you just compiling a list?

I don't see much reason to think the Braves would have been good in that scenario and the result is probably not a top five system.

 

[nsacpi]

are you advocating that this would have been better in 2015-2017 or that the rebuild would be in a better place or are you just compiling a list?

I don't see much reason to think the Braves would have been good in that scenario and the result is probably not a top five system.

team would have definitely been better in 2014 and 2015, but probably not enough to make the playoffs. As to whether we would be in better shape as of now, we need to weigh the following:

1) Having Simmons versus Newcomb, the better return on Kimbrel, the two extra #1s, still having Wood and Peraza, no Kemp or Markakis (so an extra 30M to spend in 2018 and an extra 18 M in 2019)

versus

2) Having Ender and Dansby (this is why I often say the rebuild was saved by Dave Stewart)

my preference is scenario 1, but this is very highly speculative exercise

in both scenarios we would have albies, acuna, soroka, allard

 

[sturg33]

Just taking three minutes to look at the two situations is all it would take to realize these aren't remotely comparable situations.

Hitters (control):

Zobrist 2019
La Stella 2020
Schwarb 2021
Bryant 2021
Russell 2021
Baez 2021
Almora 2022
Contreras 2022
Heyward 2023
Happ 2023
Caratini 2023

Pitchers:
Hendricks 2020
Lester 2021
Quintana 2020

The Cubs also have about 150% of the Braves payroll and mostly still retain their drafted prospects.

I do think Wren deserves some understanding for the fact that he was not allowed to take a year or two to retool and his marching orders were to make the playoffs. But where the Braves were and where the Cubs are ----pretty dramatically different places.

I'm not suggesting the two are equal. I was just told by a couple folks on this board last week that Wren was a bad GM due to the farm being decimated. Since major league results seem not to matter, I suppose those posters would be equally as critical to Theo

 

[Enscheff]

team would have definitely been better in 2014 and 2015, but probably not enough to make the playoffs. As to whether we would be in better shape as of now, we need to weigh the following:

1) Having Simmons versus Newcomb, the better return on Kimbrel, the two extra #1s, still having Wood and Peraza, no Kemp or Markakis (so an extra 30M to spend in 2018 and an extra 18 M in 2019)

versus

2) Having Ender and Dansby (this is why I often say the rebuild was saved by Dave Stewart)

my preference is scenario 1, but this is very highly speculative exercise

in both scenarios we would have albies, acuna, soroka, allard

Interesting thought experiment. Let's investigate...

JJ (0.5 bWAR, 1.3 fWAR) replaced by Kimbrel (2.3bWAR, 2.2 fWAR): 1-2 win upgrade
Swanson (0 bWAR, -0.3 fWAR) replaced by Simmons (4.3 bWAR, 3.1 fWAR): 3-4 win upgrade
Folty (1.2 bWAR, 0.8 fWAR) replaced by Wood (3.0 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR): ~2 win upgrade
Inciarte/Kemp/Markakis (1.6 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR) replaced $32M/$10M per WAR (1.8 FA WAR): 0-1 win downgrade

The Braves currently have 45 wins. With all those changes they would have 50-52 wins. They would be 1-3 games out of the WC race, and would undoubtedly looking to upgrade 3B at the deadline.

They would still have Albies, Acuna, Maitan, Allard, Soroka, plus the late-first picks they got from losing JUp and Heyward in the system. They would also have 2 of Anderson/Muller/Wentz in the system from the 2016 draft. They likely still draft Waters this past draft. They would still have a Top 5-10 farm system.

Which situation would I rather be in? Not too hard to pick, in my opinion.