Sorry, you're going to have to explain how I'm being inconsistent. Not following.
Official 2017 Trade Deadilne Thread
- Thread starter Oklahomabrave
- Start date
Sorry, you're going to have to explain how I'm being inconsistent. Not following.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Cordell has a 45 FV on Fangraphs and a 50 FV on mlb (where you claim anyone on two working legs gets a 50). When Blankenthorn was in the conversation (turns out he probably wasn't), you thought he was junk return with the same 50 FV from mlb. Granted, Cordell is higher on Fangraphs (45 FV to 40 FV), but he's older. I guess the other thing is you've talked about bundling to make sure we get a return of someone with an FV > 50. In the suggested deal, we are bundling Garcia and Phillips and still ending up with someone witn an FV < 50. I guess those are the inconsistencies I see. If you like Cordell, so be it. I just think we'd need to get more if we are bundling guys.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I would think about doing a one for one on Lewis. Think he's going to be special. I'd want to also get Gray, though.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
He's easily a top 50 prospect, if not a top 25 very soon.
Lewis is definitely a top 50 prospect right now and with him coming back strong from his injury will only go up after this season. Getting him for Julio 1 v 1 would be a great deal for the Braves.
Lewis is probably a top-25 prospect right now. He's a good prospect and one I wanted last year. But I still wouldn't trade Teheran for him straight up, at least not until he's played a little more in full season ball. His first 5 games there have been great, but it's still a wait-and-see game with him.
If you wait you aren't going to get him. I doubt the Braves can get a top 50 prospect for Teheran anyways.
That's certainly true on waiting. If he completely blows up, it becomes very tough. But it is the Mariners, they are dumb.
It is laughable to think Teheran can't bring back a top 50 prospect.
The concept of surplus value is real and Julio simply doesn't have as much as some people think right now.
Right now, all factors considered (Lewis' knee, Julio's loss of even more velocity and poor results), I would need more than Lewis to trade Teheran. I would need another legit Top 100 guy to even consider it, and probably 1-2 more decent parts to pull the trigger.
If Lewis hadn't hurt his knee, yes, I take him for current-Julio.
If Lewis hasn't hurt his knee and Julio hadn't lost another 1 MPH off his FA velocity this year? Probably not.
Can't disagree with this - yet - but a Julio/Adams for Lewis/Neidert deal would certainly make me at least pause.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
on what list? He wasn't top 50 on Klaw's. Was he on BA?
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I have seen him as top 50 on zero lists. Not Klaw. Not baseball america.
I see the arguments that you need to get him now. Maybe he jumps like Acuna....but I'm not trading JT for a top 60 prospect. I'd rather trade Newcombe. Or Garcia now and Weigel for later.
Baseball America had him #30 to start the year and then at #62 while not playing any games. How that's possible I'm not sure. And in the 5 games since he's come back he's been beasting.
I think you are over estimating what Julio will bring back. He's been bad two out of of the last 3 years, has declining stuff, getting more expensive, and losing years of control. The knee issue is certainly a cause for concern with Lewis but you aren't going to get much better and his upside is huge.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
am I missing something. JT Velocity is exactly the same as last year?
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
If you can't get a top 50 guy you don't deal him. JT is too valuable. He could get back to himself. If he doesn't he's still a decent starter on a solid deal who keeps the Johns from calling up a bunch of teenagers. His value in keeping Allard and Soroka down is real for me.
I'm not trading JT for a guy in A ball. IF he goes I need at least one guy that solves an organizational hole in 18. For Lewis to be the headliner I at least need a back end starter in 2018 who can keep the Johns from buying another washed up vet or pitching a 19 yo on another bad team.
Tapate50
Well-known member
I think Julio's issue is gonna be suntrust more than anything. I think getting him outta there and somewhere else is going to be good for him and us.
I think you would be buying WAY low on Lewis (who knows what Seattles FO is thinking) and could potentially steal him before his value skyrockets.
I think you would be buying WAY low on Lewis (who knows what Seattles FO is thinking) and could potentially steal him before his value skyrockets.
Safeco is likely the best place Julio could go to as well.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I think you are underestimating him based on what he used to do. He's been good away from home. He could be going down.
He's still a bargain next year if he's in the 1 WAR area. I think it's not a lot to think he'll at least be a 1 WAR guy. He's 0.4 now and has had rough times.
He makes 8 million next year. Then 11. Then you have a 1 million buy out or a 12 million salary. He's cheap even if he sucks. He costs less than Jamie Garcia.
That's one way to handle it. But the further it goes a long the less he will be worth. Maybe he is more valuable to the Braves than he is on the open market for a trade.