AcuñaMania

[sturg33]

IMO, the front office never really promised any sort of special season in 2017 and certainly never did much to deliver it. .

I think they were probably counting on Wisler/Blair/Folty/Newk to be effective big league starters by now.

And they were wrong.

And so our timeline has been pushed back.

And we have to HOPE these new kids come up and start dominating pretty early or the window is even further out than the 2019-2020 we're currently looking at

 

[The Tariff King]

Swanson promotion was clear catering to a certain demographic of fans for the 2017 stadium. All those fans on JS chart in the red territory.

But i I have a feeling the Johns didn't feel comfortable with Tehearn as ace and wanted to get a Sale to anchor the rotation. Not sure if I agree with it because that money could go somewhere else but maybe JS wanted to strike lighting again and acquire an ace like he signed Maddux.

 

[The Tariff King]

I

I think they were probably counting on Wisler/Blair/Folty/Newk to be effective big league starters by now.

And they were wrong.

And so our timeline has been pushed back.

And we have to HOPE these new kids come up and start dominating pretty early or the window is even further out than the 2019-2020 we're currently looking at

Yep. And Freddie will be 30, Ender at about 30 (assuming we didn't already deal him to slot Acuna in Center). No guarantee Fred stays healthy or production will still be mashing. So I hope we actual draft position players if we get another top pick instead of more pitching.

 

[zitothebrave]

Aside from Wood and Simmons, I really don't see Wren getting anyone better. For all the big trades everyone praised Wren for, what did he really show for it? The Vazquez part 1, J-Up, and JJ were his best work. And even the J-Up trade is even debatable. Since the trade, the players we traded away have had more combined WAR than the players we received.

The rest of the big trades, while most were well received at the time, turned out to be big busts. We'd have been better off keeping Infante than trading for Uggla. The Pirates clearly won the McLouth trade. Tex trade part 2 was horrendous.

What? Ahmed has been slightly above replacement (2.8 rWAR in over 1000 PA) in 5 seasons Delgado has given Arizona a 1.7 rWAR in 400 IP, Drury a 0.9 rWAR in about 950 PA, Prado gave Arizona a very solid 3.7 rWAR and netted them trade pieces from the Yankees (though they've done nothing of note yet) and Zeke Spruill got a -0.4 rWAR. IF we add all that up you have 9.3 rWAR over many many seasons. Justin Upton gave us a 6.1 rWAR in 2 seasons and residual trade valuation of a top trade value. That value wasn't really utilized properly as we traded him for an injured pitcher, a utility player prospect, a solid hitting prospect, and Mallex Smith who we then prematurely traded for Gohara. He's doing quite solid in Tampa Bay

As far as the McLouth trade, he sucked for us. There's no denying that. But we didn't give up much. Gorkys has a below replacement career. Morton has been replacement level his whole career, Locke has been below replacement level on his career. SO basically we traded 1 OK pitcher, and not much else to get McLouth. Even with the McLouth sucking aspect, it didn't really hurt us. It was a huge non-trade with much more upside for us.

The Tex trade was terrible, but as I understood it reading at the time, Cox demanded a major league first baseman back. The rumor was the Rays offered a far superior prospect package and we didn't take it because Cox demanded a 1B player.

 

[Southcack77]

This defense of the FO by the pozzy-Braves is getting out of hand.

Now you guys are trying to say the goal wasn't to compete by 2017? After everything this team has done to get ready for this special year? Seriously?

How many years are you guys going to hide behind the "they weren't really trying to win yet" excuse? I've heard you guys use it for 3 straight years now.

That's what I've always said.

 

[Southcack77]

If they weren't competing for 2017 New Stadium year then we would have never brought Dansby up last year, wouldn't have signed Dickey and Colon, traded for Phillips, or even Kemp.

If we spent all that money and traded for "stop gaps" then I'm gonna seriously question the FO. I'm usually not someone that harps on service time like others here but if the real goal was to compete in 2019 why did we rush Dansby to the bigs 2.5 years early?

They absolutely did spend a lot of short term cash in an effort to field a stop gap competitive team that the fans might find entertaining.

There is zero chance that the Braves felt the best way to build a true contender was to sign the likes of Dickey, Colon, and trade for Garcia and Phillips, and not part with any prospects or sign any free agents to long term deals.

Not credible that they felt that way.

And they largely succeeded in putting an interesting product on the field that fans mostly were willing to watch.

If they were actually trying to build a team for 2017 they would have done a lot of things differently. I don't doubt that they would have preferred that some of their moves work out better though. But I don't think it was ever a mandatory part of the plan no matter what they said in their marketing interviews.

Maybe I'm prejudiced in this by the way I saw the time frame of the rebuild and I'm fitting information into that frame. Possibly. But I think there would have been different moves if that was the case.

 

[Southcack77]

Swanson promotion was clear catering to a certain demographic of fans for the 2017 stadium. All those fans on JS chart in the red territory.

But i I have a feeling the Johns didn't feel comfortable with Tehearn as ace and wanted to get a Sale to anchor the rotation. Not sure if I agree with it because that money could go somewhere else but maybe JS wanted to strike lighting again and acquire an ace like he signed Maddux.

If they'd traded for an Ace and parted with some of their prospects to do it, I would be more likely to say they were trying to win in 2017. But they weren't. They didn't go all in or half in, or even a quarter in.

I think they promoted Dansby as a distraction, but also because they knew he they were going to start him in the majors in 2017 and wanted to get to it. Also what's his name was horrific and that helped force their hand.

 

[The Tariff King]

They absolutely did spend a lot of short term cash in an effort to field a stop gap competitive team that the fans might find entertaining.

There is zero chance that the Braves felt the best way to build a true contender was to sign the likes of Dickey, Colon, and trade for Garcia and Phillips, and not part with any prospects or sign any free agents to long term deals.

Not credible that they felt that way.

And they largely succeeded in putting an interesting product on the field that fans mostly were willing to watch.

If they were actually trying to build a team for 2017 they would have done a lot of things differently. I don't doubt that they would have preferred that some of their moves work out better though. But I don't think it was ever a mandatory part of the plan no matter what they said in their marketing interviews.

Maybe I'm prejudiced in this by the way I saw the time frame of the rebuild and I'm fitting information into that frame. Possibly. But I think there would have been different moves if that was the case.

In 2015 summer once all the bigger names had already been unloaded I have no doubt the team felt Blair, Wisler, Newk, Folty would all be in the rotation and helping us fight for a wild card spot. Folty going through struggles again unfortunately. (I forgot we acquired Newk after 2015)

When i say competitive I'm referring to postseason. We're still a while away from contending for division like 2012-2013 maturity.

 

[Southcack77]

In 2015 summer once all the bigger names had already been unloaded I have no doubt the team felt Blair, Wisler, Newk, Folty would all be in the rotation and helping us fight for a wild card spot. Folty going through struggles again unfortunately. (I forgot we acquired Newk after 2015)

When i say competitive I'm referring to postseason. We're still a while away from contending for division like 2012-2013 maturity.

Quite honestly, at no point have I seen 2017 as a particularly good bet for a playoff spot. That's just me though and I do not value prospects particularly highly. I might be projecting too much of my own thoughts on the front office.

But I've always dismissed Coppy as a bit of a weasel and a people pleaser whose marketing talk could be written off. I very well could be wrong about his actual thoughts about the rebuild, but I've seen the moves that have been made as largely trying to field stop gaps that might also be trade pieces. And I think he's used payroll to try to get more prospects. I've just seen the actual mechanics, for the most part, as a front office truly focused on a long term project with a secondary focus of lipstick on a pig in the short term. I do think they took some shots that they thought might give them an option to ramp up if things went just right early, but whether they actually thought every single one of their credible starting pitching prospects was going to hit?

No, I don't think they thought that.

 

[The Tariff King]

Quite honestly, at no point have I seen 2017 as a particularly good bet for a playoff spot. That's just me though and I do not value prospects particularly highly. I might be projecting too much of my own thoughts on the front office.

But I've always dismissed Coppy as a bit of a weasel and a people pleaser whose marketing talk could be written off. I very well could be wrong about his actual thoughts about the rebuild, but I've seen the moves that have been made as largely trying to field stop gaps that might also be trade pieces. And I think he's used payroll to try to get more prospects. I've just seen the actual mechanics, for the most part, as a front office truly focused on a long term project with a secondary focus of lipstick on a pig in the short term. I do think they took some shots that they thought might give them an option to ramp up if things went just right early, but whether they actually thought every single one of their credible starting pitching prospects was going to hit?

No, I don't think they thought that.

In fairness to the FO I think we're slightly better than our record indicates.

Losing Freeman for over a month.
Colon absolutely blowing.
Folty progressing and regressing.
Tehearn being mediocre.
Kemp out of shape.
S-Rod injury.
Dansby being one of the worst players in all of baseball in first half.
Johnson being absolute trash.

All of these things didnt didn't mean we were gonna win a title but they certainly had a domino effect. The starting pitching being inconsistent overworked an already overexposed bullpen. Dansby contributing defensive atrocities and making our starters have to leave earlier to get it pen. I felt if healthy we maybe push for the #2 wildcard spot.

 

[Enscheff]

I think they were probably counting on Wisler/Blair/Folty/Newk to be effective big league starters by now.

And they were wrong.

And so our timeline has been pushed back.

And we have to HOPE these new kids come up and start dominating pretty early or the window is even further out than the 2019-2020 we're currently looking at

If the Braves don't get 3 legit SPs (meaning 3+ WAR production) out of the Wright/Gohara/Soroka/Allard/Anderson/Wentz wave by 2020, then the rebuild pretty much failed and they likely need to blow it up and start over again.

At that point the Freeman/Inciarte/Swanson/Albies core will be leaving town in 1-3 years and/or declining, and there won't be time to acquire and develop another wave of pitchers. They certainly won't have the resources to acquire several 3+ win SPs by then either. Under that scenario, the plan should be to sell what's left of that core plus any pitchers that panned out and rebuild again.

Completely whiffing on the Folty/Wisler/Jenkins/Blair/ManBan/Newk/Sims/Fried wave(s) of pitchers put an extreme amount of pressure on this next wave to produce a few key contributors if this rebuild is going to succeed.

Investing so much in volatile pitching prospects was always a very risky move. We have seen it burn the Mets, and we might be seeing it burning the Braves.

 

[The Tariff King]

At least the Mets got to see their rotation carry them to a World Series once before **** hit the fan.

 

[Carp]

I use fangraphs. More predictive

That doesn't change facts. He was at worst a league average starter and at best a solid mid-rotation starter at the time of the trade, a former top overall prospect, and had just turned 24 with 4 more years of cheap control. And the trade was unanimously criticized league wide as an overpay by the Cards.

 

[Carp]

What? Ahmed has been slightly above replacement (2.8 rWAR in over 1000 PA) in 5 seasons Delgado has given Arizona a 1.7 rWAR in 400 IP, Drury a 0.9 rWAR in about 950 PA, Prado gave Arizona a very solid 3.7 rWAR and netted them trade pieces from the Yankees (though they've done nothing of note yet) and Zeke Spruill got a -0.4 rWAR. IF we add all that up you have 9.3 rWAR over many many seasons. Justin Upton gave us a 6.1 rWAR in 2 seasons and residual trade valuation of a top trade value. That value wasn't really utilized properly as we traded him for an injured pitcher, a utility player prospect, a solid hitting prospect, and Mallex Smith who we then prematurely traded for Gohara. He's doing quite solid in Tampa Bay

As far as the McLouth trade, he sucked for us. There's no denying that. But we didn't give up much. Gorkys has a below replacement career. Morton has been replacement level his whole career, Locke has been below replacement level on his career. SO basically we traded 1 OK pitcher, and not much else to get McLouth. Even with the McLouth sucking aspect, it didn't really hurt us. It was a huge non-trade with much more upside for us.

The Tex trade was terrible, but as I understood it reading at the time, Cox demanded a major league first baseman back. The rumor was the Rays offered a far superior prospect package and we didn't take it because Cox demanded a 1B player.

I checked the numbers earlier and I'm too lazy to bring up everyone's numbers again on my phone. But the players we traded away collectively have more bWAR than J-Up and CJ combined since the trade. It's close, but nevertheless, it's true. I am not interested in residual trade value since we're talking about only the players involved in this deal. Surely the package we sent them could have been used in a separate trade also.

McLouth trade didn't "hurt" us per say, but it was a trade that was praised by most at the time that ended up being a big flop.

 

[Southcack77]

My god the braves have had some awful acquisitions over the years.

Reggie Sanders, McLouth, Uggla, Upton, Lowe.

 

[sturg33]

I checked the numbers earlier and I'm too lazy to bring up everyone's numbers again on my phone. But the players we traded away collectively have more bWAR than J-Up and CJ combined since the trade. It's close, but nevertheless, it's true. I am not interested in residual trade value since we're talking about only the players involved in this deal. Surely the package we sent them could have been used in a separate trade also.

McLouth trade didn't "hurt" us per say, but it was a trade that was praised by most at the time that ended up being a big flop.

One player producing 10 WAR is far more valuable than 5 players producing 11.

 

[sturg33]

That doesn't change facts. He was at worst a league average starter and at best a solid mid-rotation starter at the time of the trade, a former top overall prospect, and had just turned 24 with 4 more years of cheap control. And the trade was unanimously criticized league wide as an overpay by the Cards.

Some of us understand luck. And he wasn't a good pitcher the year before the trade.

Anywho, I'd be interested in seeing this unanimous criticism

 

[thewupk]

One player producing 10 WAR is far more valuable than 5 players producing 11.

Yeah this shouldn't be hard to understand. Especially when the 11 WAR is over twice as many collective seasons. I mean I could trade 8 1 WAR players for a 5 WAR player and the 8 players would out WAR that 1 player 8 to 5. According to Carp the team with the 8 1 WAR players won the trade.

 

[thethe]

Justin Upton was a great acquisition for the Braves. Not sure why that is being debated. He was really good and dissapointed at the same time. Doesn't make him any less of a great move for Wren.

I was hoping that we would have thrown big money at him prior to Detroit getting him.

 

[thewupk]

Justin Upton was a great acquisition for the Braves. Not sure why that is being debated. He was really good and dissapointed at the same time. Doesn't make him any less of a great move for Wren.

I was hoping that we would have thrown big money at him prior to Detroit getting him.

We would still have that option this offsesaon (most likely) if it wasn't for Kemp