AcuñaMania

thewupk said:
So much randomness in the minors. Inferior umps, defenses, and playing fields. Certain people said the same thing about mallex when he had a 400 babip in the minors when he came over and he's at 330 so far in the majors. It's just dumb to predict a babip that high without having data on his better ball profile.
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Mallex didn't sustain a BABIP that high. His overall minor-league BABIP was like .350-.360.

I was just wondering if you knew that minor league BABIP doesn't predict major league BABIP in anyway. Because it makes sense that if you have a similar batted ball profile and speed, that it definitely will be predictive in some way.

And I did not make a prediction. I merely said that it's possible the BABIP he has mostly sustained through his minor-league career so far is not a complete aberration. Enscheff is the one who essentially made a prediction. I just said his prediction seems arbitrary and pointless. If I did have to predict for Acuna, I would say his true minor-league BABIP is somewhere around .370-.380, based on the numbers we have, and that his major-league BABIP will be clearly better than average, somewhere in the .340ish range.
 
smootness said:
Mallex didn't sustain a BABIP that high. His overall minor-league BABIP was like .350-.360.

I was just wondering if you knew that minor league BABIP doesn't predict major league BABIP in anyway. Because it makes sense that if you have a similar batted ball profile and speed, that it definitely will be predictive in some way.

And I did not make a prediction. I merely said that it's possible the BABIP he has mostly sustained through his minor-league career so far is not a complete aberration. Enscheff is the one who essentially made a prediction. I just said his prediction seems arbitrary and pointless. If I did have to predict for Acuna, I would say his true minor-league BABIP is somewhere around .370-.380, based on the numbers we have, and that his major-league BABIP will be clearly better than average, somewhere in the .340ish range at least.
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What's different than Mallex having a 400 BABIP over a combined 500 plate appearances to end 2014 and start 2015 than what Acuna is doing this year?

Acuna could live in the 340 BABIP range but that would put him in the top 4% of players and you are saying he will at least have that. I just find that to be very homerish.
 
thewupk said:
What's different than Mallex having a 400 BABIP over a combined 500 plate appearances to end 2014 and start 2015 than what Acuna is doing this year?

Acuna could live in the 340 BABIP range but that would put him in the top 4% of players and you are saying he will at least have that. I just find that to be very homerish.
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It may prove to be homerish. None of us have his batted ball data. So you guys are saying that because of that, we should assume he is just getting crazy lucky and will be roughly average. I am saying that because of that, we should just look at what he's done so far. We have no idea who is right, we'll have to wait and see what he does going forward.

And what's different than what Mallex did and what Acuna is doing? Nothing? Mallex has posted a .333 BABIP so far in the majors and it's .360 this year. Is it crazy to believe he will be able to sustain a .340+ BABIP in the majors, based on what we have now? He certainly seems to be clearly above the .300-.320 range.

And again, all we have so far is the data in front of us. Acuna has posted a .384 BABIP through his entire minor-league career to this point, which spans roughly 1,000 PA. Mallex ended his minor-league career with a .363 BABIP over a lot more PA. Does that mean Acuna would clearly sustain a higher BABIP forever? No. But it is all we have right now.
 
smootness said:
It may prove to be homerish. None of us have his batted ball data. So you guys are saying that because of that, we should assume he is just getting crazy lucky and will be roughly average. I am saying that because of that, we should just look at what he's done so far. We have no idea who is right, we'll have to wait and see what he does going forward.

And what's different than what Mallex did and what Acuna is doing? Nothing? Mallex has posted a .333 BABIP so far in the majors and it's .360 this year. Is it crazy to believe he will be able to sustain a .340+ BABIP in the majors, based on what we have now? He certainly seems to be clearly above the .300-.320 range.
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Yes it would be crazy to expect Mallex to sustain a 340 BABIP in the majors. Again 4% of players are able to do that. Mallex has the speed component down but I very much doubt he has the batted ball profile to do that for any serious length of time. He's just not good enough for that.

And time will tell on Acuna. Again I don't have a problem with a 320 BABIP expectation and I think he will live somewhere around there just based on what I've read and seen. And that is still very good.
 
thewupk said:
Yes it would be crazy to expect Mallex to sustain a 340 BABIP in the majors. Again 4% of players are able to do that. Mallex has the speed component down but I very much doubt he has the batted ball profile to do that for any serious length of time. He's just not good enough for that.

And time will tell on Acuna. Again I don't have a problem with a 320 BABIP range and I expect him to live somewhere there just based on what I've read and seen. And that is still very good.
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But have you looked at his batted ball profile? I don't understand why on some arguments you guys seem to ignore the data you usually prefer. 'I don't think there's any way he can do that because not many players do, and he's not good enough.' That doesn't seem like a good enough answer to me. Since when is a 'he's not good enough' opinion satisfactory for you when discussing something like BABIP?
 
smootness said:
But have you looked at his batted ball profile? I don't understand why on some arguments you guys seem to ignore the data you usually prefer. 'I don't think there's any way he can do that because not many players do, and he's not good enough.' That doesn't seem like a good enough answer to me. Since when is a 'he's not good enough' opinion satisfactory for you when discussing something like BABIP?
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Generally if you're asking me to bet on someone being in the top 4% of population, I'll take the under, regardless of the data
 
sturg33 said:
Generally if you're asking me to bet on someone being in the top 4% of population, I'll take the under, regardless of the data
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That's certainly fair enough.

Is this 4% number all major league position players, or just starters? If it's just starters, then on average you still have one every 3 teams. If it includes all players, it's probably higher, more like one every 2. Either way, I don't think it's insane to think that the top prospect in baseball, who has plenty of speed and has sustained a very high BABIP in the minors, could be one of those guys.
 
sturg33 said:
Generally if you're asking me to bet on someone being in the top 4% of population, I'll take the under, regardless of the data
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This is where I am.

Acuna may have a better shot than the average player at a .340+ BABIP, but chances are still clearly small he does that.

I'm also not exactly sure why it matters but the discussion is the discussion.
 
smootness said:
Mallex didn't sustain a BABIP that high. His overall minor-league BABIP was like .350-.360.

I was just wondering if you knew that minor league BABIP doesn't predict major league BABIP in anyway. Because it makes sense that if you have a similar batted ball profile and speed, that it definitely will be predictive in some way.

And I did not make a prediction. I merely said that it's possible the BABIP he has mostly sustained through his minor-league career so far is not a complete aberration. Enscheff is the one who essentially made a prediction. I just said his prediction seems arbitrary and pointless. If I did have to predict for Acuna, I would say his true minor-league BABIP is somewhere around .370-.380, based on the numbers we have, and that his major-league BABIP will be clearly better than average, somewhere in the .340ish range.
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You never do. All you do is post contrarian comments without ever contributing a single original thought of your own.
 
smootness said:
It may prove to be homerish. None of us have his batted ball data. So you guys are saying that because of that, we should assume he is just getting crazy lucky and will be roughly average. I am saying that because of that, we should just look at what he's done so far. We have no idea who is right, we'll have to wait and see what he does going forward.

And what's different than what Mallex did and what Acuna is doing? Nothing? Mallex has posted a .333 BABIP so far in the majors and it's .360 this year. Is it crazy to believe he will be able to sustain a .340+ BABIP in the majors, based on what we have now? He certainly seems to be clearly above the .300-.320 range.

And again, all we have so far is the data in front of us. Acuna has posted a .384 BABIP through his entire minor-league career to this point, which spans roughly 1,000 PA. Mallex ended his minor-league career with a .363 BABIP over a lot more PA. Does that mean Acuna would clearly sustain a higher BABIP forever? No. But it is all we have right now.
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Yes, we do. Scroll down to "Batted Ball": http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa877503&position=OF

He doesn't have the profile of a guy that sustains a super high BABIP. He hits too many FBs, and far too many IFFBs to sustain a BABIP over about .320.

Look at Jeter's batted ball profile...that's what is needed to sustain a BABIP over .340.

Acuna is getting lucky, just like CJ did when he batted .321 and won a batting title. He is unlikely to get lucky at the MLB level over an extended period of time. He will settle in around .300-.320 just like everyone else, and when he does, he won't be within shouting distance of the 1.000 OPS he is posting in AAA...more like low .700s in 2018.
 
Super said:
This is where I am.
Acuna may have a better shot than the average player at a .340+ BABIP, but chances are still clearly small he does that.

I'm also not exactly sure why it matters but the discussion is the discussion.
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He'll more likely turn out along the lines of Heyward, another highly touted prospect who has had a very good career but is viewed as a disappointment because of excessively high expectations.
 
nsacpi said:
He'll more likely turn out along the lines of Heyward, another highly touted prospect who has had a very good career but is viewed as a disappointment because of excessively high expectations.
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Well, I hope he has a longer peak and I think he'll be better offensively fairly easily.
 
Super said:
Well, I hope he has a longer peak and I think he'll be better offensively fairly easily.
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It is not much appreciated around here, but in his first six seasons Heyward had four seasons with a WAR in excess of 4.5, 3 in excess of 5 and two in excess of 6. I would the thrilled if Acuna did something like that.

From your past comments, I know you see Heyward in a more hazy light than I do, but during those first six years (which are the ones that really matter since after those six years most players get paid market rate) Heyward was a tremendously productive player.
 
nsacpi said:
It is not much appreciated around here, but in his first six seasons Heyward had four seasons with a WAR in excess of 4.5, 3 in excess of 5 and two in excess of 6. I would the thrilled if Acuna did something like that.

From your past comments, I know you see Heyward in a more hazy light than I do, but during those first six years (which are the ones that really matter since after those six years most players get paid market rate) Heyward was a tremendously productive player.
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I know he was. I loved Heyward and I miss watching him play (at least defensively).
His offense was always a little frustrating to me, outside of his rookie year & 2012. He's only 28 so he could still rebound, but it's very possible he's finished as a productive offensive player. His WAR was usually up there for his defense, and maybe WAR is right, but I'm not sure.
I hope and think Acuna will be more consistent offensively and for a longer period of time.
 
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