Scouting the FA starting pitchers

E

Enscheff

Well-known member
MLBTR just did a good piece scouting the FA starting pitchers in a few key stats:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...pitchers-of-the-2017-18-free-agent-class.html

If the Braves are going to improve the rotation externally, they will almost certainly be signing a guy mentioned in that article.

Here is the xwOBA for all SPs listed on one of the MLBTR lists in the linked article (.320 is a league average #4):

1 Yu Darvish 0.291
2 Jake Arrieta 0.296
3 Jhoulys Chacin 0.305
4 Lance Lynn 0.308
5 Doug Fister 0.310
6 CC Sabathia 0.311
7 Trevor Cahill 0.313
8 Masahiro Tanaka 0.316
9 Jaime Garcia 0.319
10 Alex Cobb 0.320
11 Jason Vargas 0.320
12 Tyler Chatwood 0.325
13 Anibal Sanchez 0.327
14 Andrew Cashner 0.327
15 John Lackey 0.336
16 Scott Feldman 0.339
17 Francisco Liriano 0.339
18 Jeremy Hellickson 0.343
19 Bartolo Colon 0.348
20 Ubaldo Jimenez 0.351
21 Wade Miley 0.356
22 Ricky Nolasco 765 0.357

Darvish and Arrieta are obviously not happening. Anyone worse than Cobb/Vargas is a below average SP and wouldn't really improve the rotation much. That leaves 9 feasible options (bolded): Chacin, Lynn, Fister, Sabathia, Cahill, Tanaka, Garcia, Cobb, and Vargas.

Lynn is almost certainly too expensive. Cobb and Tanaka are likely too expensive as well. Vargas may be out of the Braves price range as well.

Chacin is not someone I had given any thought previously. He's only 29. He has a roughly average K rate, and above average GB rate. He might be a nice value option.
 
would anyone want to commit multi years to either Jake or Yu? I like Darvish, but he is a ticking time bomb. We have those internally already. Jake is already on the wrong side of 30 and could rebound from a downish year. But it also could be a sign of things to come. Chacin is who he is.. I doubt you get much better than a 4 ERA guy.. Lynn is about the only guy I would want to commit multiple years to... and even then I don't know if he is going to be worth the price he will command in a very weak class.
 
Jhoulys Chacín, really? we have been there . Why would you even put him in the conversation? Home and away splits, he pitches in the best pitchers park in MLB
Home ERA 1.79
away ERA 6.93

there is not a pitcher on that list I see worthy of spending bug bucks and multiple years on outside of "maybe" Cobb and that one would not really excite me. I would rather go with our young guys than spend the money.
 
depley said:
Jhoulys Chacín, really? we have been there . Why would you even put him in the conversation? Home and away splits, he pitches in the best pitchers park in MLB
Home ERA 1.79
away ERA 6.93

there is not a pitcher on that list I see worthy of spending bug bucks and multiple years on outside of "maybe" Cobb and that one would not really excite me. I would rather go with our young guys than spend the money.
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Because if he is a 2+ win pitcher that can be had for a couple million bucks, he could be a great value.

Anyone who doesn't have their head in the sand knows the Braves can probably only afford a few million bucks this offseason. At that price point Chacin is probably the best option. The production of Dickey for half the cost.

I think I'd much prefer to give Chacin $3M over 1 year than Cobb $50M over 3 years.
 
Enscheff said:
Because if he is a 2+ win pitcher that can be had for a couple million bucks, he could be a great value.

Anyone who doesn't have their head in the sand knows the Braves can probably only afford a few million bucks this offseason. At that price point Chacin is probably the best option. The production of Dickey for half the cost.

I think I'd much prefer to give Chacin $3M over 1 year than Cobb $50M over 3 years.
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I would rather give Sims 500K than chacin $3M

Or in other words, you are making a strong argument to avoid the SP market entirely - I agree
 
I like Tyler Chatwood. He's been suffering from Coors, he throws hard and he gets ground balls and is still young. I think he's a good value buy.

I also like taking a gamble on Eovaldi as he comes back from TJ.

Maybe focus on Lynn and Cobb depending on the costs.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I like Tyler Chatwood. He's been suffering from Coors, he throws hard and he gets ground balls and is still young. I think he's a good value buy.

I also like taking a gamble on Eovaldi as he comes back from TJ.

Maybe focus on Lynn and Cobb depending on the costs.
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Lynn would be a clear upgrade, but will cost $70M+ (maybe as high as $90M). If the Braves want a clear upgrade to the rotation, Lynn is the only realistic option, and chances are he will be way too expensive.

If you are looking at Cobb you might as well look at Vargas and Garcia as well. All 3 are average pitchers with past health issues. All 3 will probably post 2-3 wins next year depending on how many innings they pitch. Might as well sign the one who's sitting there at the end of the offseason if that's the path you want to take.
 
Enscheff said:
Lynn would be a clear upgrade, but will cost $70M+ (maybe as high as $90M). If the Braves want a clear upgrade to the rotation, Lynn is the only realistic option, and chances are he will be way too expensive.

If you are looking at Cobb you might as well look at Vargas and Garcia as well. All 3 are average pitchers with past health issues. All 3 will probably post 2-3 wins next year depending on how many innings they pitch. Might as well sign the one who's sitting there at the end of the offseason if that's the path you want to take.
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Cobb is younger and a righty. Garcia and Vargas are both older and lefty. I think with Newk, Gohara, Fried and Allard all close or contributing then I would rather have the narrow age upside of Cobb.

I also think you might be able to pull Fulmer away from the Tigers cheaply IF you were willing to take Jordan Zimmerman (who I think will always be overpaid but could bounce back in the NL). Maybe something along the lines of Fulmer, Zimmerman, Kinsler (3B) for Kemp, Camargo, Blair, Wentz and Fried. That's not that much but Detroit cuts both short term and long term payroll and picks up some decent talent for Fulmer even though he has a bit of injury unknown.

The thing is, it's likely the Braves sign some "veteran presence" guy for the rotation every year through 2020 as is and will pay at least what half of what Zimm is owed each of those years. If he returns to good NL form then the Braves have a bargain. If he's only "ok" then he's probably $12M per year overpaid.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I like Tyler Chatwood. He's been suffering from Coors, he throws hard and he gets ground balls and is still young. I think he's a good value buy.

I also like taking a gamble on Eovaldi as he comes back from TJ.

Maybe focus on Lynn and Cobb depending on the costs.
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Gotta give Bud Black a lot of credit you’d think for improving a lot of those Rockies pitchers especially considering Coors Fields...I’m not sure of their splits though, just know they’ve improved
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Cobb is younger and a righty. Garcia and Vargas are both older and lefty. I think with Newk, Gohara, Fried and Allard all close or contributing then I would rather have the narrow age upside of Cobb.

I also think you might be able to pull Fulmer away from the Tigers cheaply IF you were willing to take Jordan Zimmerman (who I think will always be overpaid but could bounce back in the NL). Maybe something along the lines of Fulmer, Zimmerman, Kinsler (3B) for Kemp, Camargo, Blair, Wentz and Fried. That's not that much but Detroit cuts both short term and long term payroll and picks up some decent talent for Fulmer even though he has a bit of injury unknown.

The thing is, it's likely the Braves sign some "veteran presence" guy for the rotation every year through 2020 as is and will pay at least what half of what Zimm is owed each of those years. If he returns to good NL form then the Braves have a bargain. If he's only "ok" then he's probably $12M per year overpaid.
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I can get on board with preferring Cobb due to being RHed and younger. He will also be the most expensive of the trio.

I find is extremely unlikely the Tigers will sell low on Fulmer by trading him after having arm surgery. He will more likely be dealt at the next trade deadline. If the Braves are even remotely in the WC hunt I could see the rumors becoming rampant.
 
Enscheff said:
I can get on board with preferring Cobb due to being RHed and younger. He will also be the most expensive of the trio.

I find is extremely unlikely the Tigers will sell low on Fulmer by trading him after having arm surgery. He will more likely be dealt at the next trade deadline. If the Braves are even remotely in the WC hunt I could see the rumors becoming rampant.
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I agree they won't want to trade low on Fulmer but might be talked into it IF the Braves were willing to take on Zimmerman. Zimmerman is more expensive than Kemp by about $5-7M per year through 2019 and then has the 2020 season as well so a Kemp for Zimmerman deal straight up would be a big win for the Tigers. Taking on Kinsler whose owed $10M or a $5M buyout cuts 2018 payroll even more. So the deal would be in effect Fulmer (injured) for Camargo, Blair, Wentz and Fried plus $10-15M (Net) payroll relief for 2018, $5-7M in 2019, then $25M relief in 2020 (Zimms final year). Looking at it that we, my deal might be a bit of overpay. I might pull Wentz out and replace him with Sanchez instead.

Of course, if you are the Braves, you only make this move IF your are going to go for it (you know how I feel about that) AND are going to make other "compete now" moves.
 
Most teams are not like the Braves and Marlins. The Tigers are not going to accept a lesser package for Fulmer to shed other salary commitments.

If the Braves want Fulmer they will have to pay the full surplus value of $120M in prospect capital. They shouldn't be willing to pay that price...yet.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I like Tyler Chatwood. He's been suffering from Coors, he throws hard and he gets ground balls and is still young. I think he's a good value buy.

I also like taking a gamble on Eovaldi as he comes back from TJ.

Maybe focus on Lynn and Cobb depending on the costs.
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Put me down for Chatwood. Likely won't be very expensive or command too much.
 
Enscheff said:
Most teams are not like the Braves and Marlins. The Tigers are not going to accept a lesser package for Fulmer to shed other salary commitments.

If the Braves want Fulmer they will have to pay the full surplus value of $120M in prospect capital. They shouldn't be willing to pay that price...yet.
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That might be right in which case the Braves should move away from the thought of Fulmer. However, it might not be right under the current circumstances. There is no question that the Tigers are in rebuild mode. It also is no question that they will not be able to move Cabrera under any circumstances. They might get lucky with Victor Martinez if he can't come back if they have insurance that they can cash in.

Bottom line, if I were the Braves GM I would float the proposal. If Detroit says no then ok but they might not say no.

I think you can find bargains by being in the position where the Braves are now, not exactly competitors but not rebuilding either. IF you are willing to help out a rebuilding franchise by taking on some of their bad money then you might get bargains. I see Detroit, Miami and Kansas City in this bucket, maybe a few others if they decide to start over.

Also, if you are willing to trade existing ML talent to teams who think they are on the cusp of contending, then you may get some good opportunities. I see Milwaukee, Minnesota, Baltimore in this area as teams almost there or trying to stay almost there.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I like Tyler Chatwood. He's been suffering from Coors, he throws hard and he gets ground balls and is still young. I think he's a good value buy.

I also like taking a gamble on Eovaldi as he comes back from TJ.

Maybe focus on Lynn and Cobb depending on the costs.
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I could handle Chatwood on a friendly deal. He certainly is pretty decent away from Coors.

though, while the splits are dramatic, the peripherals are actually pretty consistent and the road FIP is not that impressive. The BABIP on the road is pretty darn low. Also, I'm trying to think if anyone has really broken out after leaving Coors. Maybe there is a obvious example that is slipping my mind.
 
Lackey on a similar deal to what we gave Dickey last season (1 year plus an option year at 8M per year) would not be bad. His results this year have been skewed by a high HR/FB rate, something that has a significant element of luck. Like BABIP it tends to regress toward the mean.

His strikeout (8.0) and walk (2.8) rates this year have been solid.

My first choice this off-season is one of Lynn/Cobb/Garcia at 15M/year on no more than a 4 year deal. If the market for those 3 gets too expensive someone like Lackey is a good fallback option.
 
Fulmer apparently has chronic nerve issues in his elbow, which may still require surgery? That does not sound safe.

I don't think the cost would justify the risk. K rate actually dropped a bit from 7.47 to 6.23.
 
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