Steady decline down after his best season was last year at the age of 25. was he in a decline after his 2014 season, too?
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Scouting the FA starting pitchers
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
Steady decline down after his best season was last year at the age of 25. was he in a decline after his 2014 season, too?
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
We aren't gonna sign a starter but I think we'll go after Fulmer. He will cost a lot but I don't see Acuna going anywhere in a trade so I would center a deal around Allard and maybe Anderson.
I can see that as a possibility but only in a broader trade where the Braves help Detroit shed some payroll obligations. I posted in a different thread it might could be something like: Fulmer, Zimmerman and Ian Kinsler (3B) for Kemp, Camargo, Blair, Fried and Sanchez.
The Braves get their young controllable TOR starter (although I don't see Fulmer as a true ACE), a #4 with a sold NL track record in Zimmerman and a one year stop gap for 3B, plus they move Kemp who could DH or play OF for the rebuilding Tigers - V Martinez is likely to have to retire and Cabrera may have to DH but wants to continue to play 1B.
The Tigers get salary relief over the next 3 years, a useful bat in Kemp that they can DH, an immediate replacement for Kinsler and 3 pitching prospects.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Steady decline down after his best season was last year at the age of 25. was he in a decline after his 2014 season, too?
His stuff is in steady decline. At a young age you can justify a belief in a bounce back as long as the stuff isn't in decline. Even if he has an injury that is the cause of stuff decline, you might convince yourself that he will bounce back after a procedure such as TJ. But his arm has been healthy.
The best time to move someone is when there are still teams out there that have belief. I think there are a number of teams that still believe in Teheran but that number shrinks every year.
His stuff is in steady decline. At a young age you can justify a belief in a bounce back as long as the stuff isn't in decline. Even if he has an injury that is the cause of stuff decline, you might convince yourself that he will bounce back after a procedure such as TJ. But his arm has been healthy.
The best time to move someone is when there are still teams out there that have belief. I think there are a number of teams that still believe in Teheran but that number shrinks every year.
His stuff is in a steady decline since when, exactly? Again, he just had his best season last year. Did he just luck into a really good year? Sorry, I don't buy that when he had done it two times prior to that as well. If he's up over 3 WAR again next year, then what?
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
His stuff is in a steady decline since when, exactly? Again, he just had his best season last year. Did he just luck into a really good year? Sorry, I don't buy that when he had done it two times prior to that as well. If he's up over 3 WAR again next year, then what?
His vFA started at 93.9 in 2011 and has declined to 91.9 in 2017. During that time his FA usage rate has decreased through the good years only to increase this year again. He's pitched over 200 innings twice once in 2014 (his best year by far) and 200.2 innings in 2015 with a 4.04 era. His k/9 are down. His HR/9 and BB/9 are up. He has averaged 6 innings per outing this year even though he has been healthy all year. He won't pitch 200 innings this year even though he's supposed to be the ace of the staff.
What am I going to do if he's up over 3 WAR next year and the Braves still have him? Then great. I will rejoice.
What are you going to do if his WAR next year is 0.8? I expect you will be first in line to want to see him traded then complain when they have a hard time moving him for anything other than salary relief.
Southcack77
Well-known member
You let the kids pitch if 2018 isn't the target and no one's job is in jeopardy. It looks like winning is important for 2018. I think the FO has decided that neither Folty nor Teheran are TOR guys, not even reliable #2 and asking the young, ready kids to be that is asking too much too early. Essentially, the team right now is full of #4 starters. They want to improve that. I'm not sure they can but think they will try mainly because of the heat.
Well, the front office has actually suggested that they are looking at the bullpen and previously at 3B and has not mentioned starting pitching as a priority.
I think those of us who would like to see a signing or two, think the rotation would still have a young starter or two but those kids would need to earn their way or force their way up.
If the Braves can upgrade the rotation through free agency that can only help things, because they are actually pretty much locked out of doing a lot of additions in the field at this point. Granted, my preference would only be one or two year deals unless it is cost controlled.
If you have to create room later you can always try to trade a Teheran, Dickey or young starter.
And I happen to think that the kids who are likely to start hitting AAA next season can probably stand to stay down awhile if things are stable in Atlanta. I don't think the Braves have to rush players or promote them just to validate their farm system. Production is production. So long as it isn't a stupid amount of money that will be a long term problem, I am good with whatever.
Starting pitching and the pen probably cost this team its shot at .500 (which is what I predicted as far as starting pitching at least) so getting better isn't the worst idea in the world. I don't see 2018 as the year, but you need to do some things that would give 2018 an opportunity of being a playoff season if everything goes right. But you should not kill yourself to do it.
His vFA started at 93.9 in 2011 and has declined to 91.9 in 2017. During that time his FA usage rate has decreased through the good years only to increase this year again. He's pitched over 200 innings twice once in 2014 (his best year by far) and 200.2 innings in 2015 with a 4.04 era. His k/9 are down. His HR/9 and BB/9 are up. He has averaged 6 innings per outing this year even though he has been healthy all year. He won't pitch 200 innings this year even though he's supposed to be the ace of the staff.
What am I going to do if he's up over 3 WAR next year and the Braves still have him? Then great. I will rejoice.
What are you going to do if his WAR next year is 0.8? I expect you will be first in line to want to see him traded then complain when they have a hard time moving him for anything other than salary relief.
His best year was not 2014 "by far" by pretty much any measure.
His HRs were also up in 2015 before dropping in 16. Major decline in 15, major incline in 16, I suppose. His 2nd half numbers are more in line with his better years.
If he puts up 0.8 WAR next year, I will have been wrong. No, I won't be doing any of the things you're claiming. I have zero track record of that, so that's just nonsense. His bWAR is also 1.7 this year, in his terrible decline year.
I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be really good again ever again. I'm saying he's 26 and has had 3 really good seasons so far, so I'm not writing him off and saying he's surely in a decline.
Southcack77
Well-known member
His best year was not 2014 "by far" by pretty much any measure.
His HRs were also up in 2015 before dropping in 16. Major decline in 15, major incline in 16, I suppose. His 2nd half numbers are more in line with his better years.
If he puts up 0.8 WAR next year, I will have been wrong. No, I won't be doing any of the things you're claiming. I have zero track record of that, so that's just nonsense. His bWAR is also 1.7 this year, in his terrible decline year.
I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be really good again ever again. I'm saying he's 26 and has had 3 really good seasons so far, so I'm not writing him off and saying he's surely in a decline.
The splits are so weird, particularly given that Suntrust is a pretty dead neutral park based on the info we have.
I'm not sure how to explain that. I wonder if there is just something about the mound or something that messes with his eye or something. Or maybe he just parties when he is home.
I'm not sure how to evaluate a decline that doesn't show itself on the road for a player that doesn't play in a home hitter's park.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
His best year was not 2014 "by far" by pretty much any measure.
His HRs were also up in 2015 before dropping in 16. Major decline in 15, major incline in 16, I suppose. His 2nd half numbers are more in line with his better years.
If he puts up 0.8 WAR next year, I will have been wrong. No, I won't be doing any of the things you're claiming. I have zero track record of that, so that's just nonsense. His bWAR is also 1.7 this year, in his terrible decline year.
I'm not saying he's guaranteed to be really good again ever again. I'm saying he's 26 and has had 3 really good seasons so far, so I'm not writing him off and saying he's surely in a decline.
I'm not saying it's impossible for him to be consistently great again. Anything is possible. I'm saying, IMO, the probability is not good and that it would be good to maximize his value now especially if his production can be replaced through FA without a HUGE cost delta. Signing another pitcher in FA of similar profile to Teheran will cost more, no doubt. But you have to figure in the talent cost that you get for Teheran in the equation as well.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Well, the front office has actually suggested that they are looking at the bullpen and previously at 3B and has not mentioned starting pitching as a priority.
I think those of us who would like to see a signing or two, think the rotation would still have a young starter or two but those kids would need to earn their way or force their way up.
If the Braves can upgrade the rotation through free agency that can only help things, because they are actually pretty much locked out of doing a lot of additions in the field at this point. Granted, my preference would only be one or two year deals unless it is cost controlled.
If you have to create room later you can always try to trade a Teheran, Dickey or young starter.
And I happen to think that the kids who are likely to start hitting AAA next season can probably stand to stay down awhile if things are stable in Atlanta. I don't think the Braves have to rush players or promote them just to validate their farm system. Production is production. So long as it isn't a stupid amount of money that will be a long term problem, I am good with whatever.
Starting pitching and the pen probably cost this team its shot at .500 (which is what I predicted as far as starting pitching at least) so getting better isn't the worst idea in the world. I don't see 2018 as the year, but you need to do some things that would give 2018 an opportunity of being a playoff season if everything goes right. But you should not kill yourself to do it.
I'm a non-purgatory person. My personality is to try things to be better as opposed to sitting back and hoping things will get better by osmosis or chance. Sometimes that approach gets me in trouble but most times its beneficial. It might be heaven or it might be hell but it d*mn sure won't be purgatory.
Keeping Teheran and riding along and hoping for the best might be the best course. I don't think it will be. My vote early (and often) on was for a full rebuild, accept that you won't really compete for five years but use the time to build a dynasty. The Braves chose not to do that. Now, we are where we are. The FO, unless they do something pretty dramatic, are looking at a five year rebuild anyway even with all their attempts to avoid that. They are feeling the heat. They will do something. I would prefer that it is productive and as little disruptive to 2020 and beyond as possible - don't sell out 2020 for 2018 just to save your jobs.
The splits are so weird, particularly given that Suntrust is a pretty dead neutral park based on the info we have.
I'm not sure how to explain that. I wonder if there is just something about the mound or something that messes with his eye or something. Or maybe he just parties when he is home.
I'm not sure how to evaluate a decline that doesn't show itself on the road for a player that doesn't play in a home hitter's park.
That's true too, and I forgot about that: His road numbers are really good. His "decline" is only obvious when pitching at home. That gives me more reason to believe he'll have another solid season again soon.
I'm not saying it's impossible for him to be consistently great again. Anything is possible. I'm saying, IMO, the probability is not good and that it would be good to maximize his value now especially if his production can be replaced through FA without a HUGE cost delta. Signing another pitcher in FA of similar profile to Teheran will cost more, no doubt. But you have to figure in the talent cost that you get for Teheran in the equation as well.
I guess I don't think he has a ton of value now. If they weren't getting value for him during his very good season last year, they aren't likely to get it now. I think he has a better season next year than he did this year. And I think that's not a terrible bet.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
The splits are so weird, particularly given that Suntrust is a pretty dead neutral park based on the info we have.
I'm not sure how to explain that. I wonder if there is just something about the mound or something that messes with his eye or something. Or maybe he just parties when he is home.
I'm not sure how to evaluate a decline that doesn't show itself on the road for a player that doesn't play in a home hitter's park.
All this is true. And he's likely to pitch half his games there every year he is a Brave. If he's going to continue to be a Brave then he needs to quickly and permanently find the antidote to his suntrust kryptonite.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I guess I don't think he has a ton of value now. If they weren't getting value for him during his very good season last year, they aren't likely to get it now. I think he has a better season next year than he did this year. And I think that's not a terrible bet.
I certainly don't want to give him away. BUT, I think there are several "close" teams out there who need pitching but can't play in the deep end of FA waters who will be willing to take a chance. I don't think you will get a Shelby Miller type deal for him. I think that was a once in a lifetime type deal that is probably hurting the Braves now when they are involved in trades (no one wants to look like a fool and Coppy didn't exactly throw down any cushions for Stewart to land on while he was basking in his boy genius afterglow).
I see teams like Milwaukee, Minnesota, the Angels, Baltimore, maybe Tampa, maybe Houston (if they fall short this year), Seattle, Colorado, Texas, St. Louis etc possibly having interest with Milwaukee, after just missing, being the place I would go first.
Milwaukee has a good farm AND they have a lot of position players. The Braves won't get Brinson or Ray and don't need Hiura or Diaz but guys like Lutz, Phillips, Monte Harrison, Clark, KJ Harrison, Nottingham all could help fill holes within the system.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
That's true too, and I forgot about that: His road numbers are really good. His "decline" is only obvious when pitching at home. That gives me more reason to believe he'll have another solid season again soon.
But its also why other teams may be convinced that he is valuable.
Milwaukee has a good farm AND they have a lot of position players. The Braves won't get Brinson or Ray and don't need Hiura or Diaz but guys like Lutz, Phillips, Monte Harrison, Clark, KJ Harrison, Nottingham all could help fill holes within the system.
I don't think the offseason is the time to trade him, either, so we just disagree all over the place.
If I don't buy into his decline then I obviously don't support dealing him after this season he's had.
If we did deal him this offseason and Milwaukee was the suitor, I could see Ray being involved. I still like him a lot as a prospect despite his pretty poor year in the minors (and in A+, at that. Not even upper minors for a college guy). I think he could be in play if we deal Julio this offseason.
But its also why other teams may be convinced that he is valuable.
Maybe, maybe not. Very hard to say.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I don't think the offseason is the time to trade him, either, so we just disagree all over the place.
If I don't buy into his decline then I obviously don't support dealing him after this season he's had.
If we did deal him this offseason and Milwaukee was the suitor, I could see Ray being involved. I still like him a lot as a prospect despite his pretty poor year in the minors (and in A+, at that. Not even upper minors for a college guy). I think he could be in play if we deal Julio this offseason.
If you don't deal him this offseason then you likely don't deal him at all. You likely are committing yourself to him no matter what. If the Braves take him into the season and the Braves are winning enough to convince people that progress is happening then there is no way he's traded mid season no matter his personal performance. If the Braves aren't competing then Teheran will almost certainly be part of that and will have no market.
If he pitches will for the full season in 2018 then no way the Braves trade him in 2019. If he pitches as poor or more than 2017 then he will have no market.
As for Ray, I would prefer Lutz since I think his ceiling is higher (but floor as well). I would want Phillips no matter who else is involved since he could play right away and may ultimately be a 4th OF but could today outplay either Kemp (definite) and Markakis (likely). An OF of Acuna, Inciarte and Phillips should be pretty great defensively and provide MUCH better offense. Lutz would be more of a long term play. If I couldn't get Lutz then I would want both Clark and Monte Harrison.
Southcack77
Well-known member
But its also why other teams may be convinced that he is valuable.
Well that's why a team might buy low.
Managuarantano's Volunteers
<B><I>The Artist Formally Known as <P>Ventura's St
I would rather deal Folty in the hopes that someone thinks he is more than a stuff 5.