Scouting the FA starting pitchers

Dickey's age shouldn't be that concerning. He is a knuckler, so the typical aging curve doesn't apply. I wouldn't be surprised if he pitched another 4-5 years, assuming he had the desire to do so.
 
Julio's poor season can be mainly blamed on poor control. In his gold seasons he walks 2 per 9 (plus plus control). In his poor seasons he walks 3.5 per 9 (below average control).

His stuff has been declining since he debuted, just like all pitchers.

I see him as a 2-3 win pitcher next year because I expect his control to bounce back to average or better.
 
If the Braves decide to replace Dickey, I could see them and the Rays lining up on a trade for Odorizzi. The Rays will probably be open to shopping him now that he has 2 years of control remaining (which is their MO with SPs). He is the definition of a league average SP, posting xwOBA values of exactly 0.320 the last 2 years. He should be good for 150-180 innings and ~2 wins.

What would he cost?

Assuming he posts 3-4 wins the next 2 seasons at a cost of about $15M, he has a surplus value of $15M-$25M.

We know the Rays prioritize value, and Matt Adams would provide them excellent value at 1B next season.

They would also value an MLB ready SP that can provide cheap innings. Fried or Sims fit that description.

So my proposal would be Adams plus Sims/Fried plus another low level pitching prospect for Odorizzi.

The Braves would get Dickey production for 2 seasons for less than they were paying him.
 
If Dickey doesn't come back for 2018, I would still like to see the Braves acquire a ~2 win pitcher to stabilize the rotation. Here are the FA pitchers who are realistic options, as well as their 2017 xwOBA and number of innings they have thrown the last 3 seasons:

Jhoulys Chacin (30), 0.305, 26-144-180
Lance Lynn (31), 0.308, 175-0-186
Doug Fister (34), 0.310, 103-180-90
CC Sabathia (37), 0.311, 167-179-148
Trevor Cahill (30), 0.313, 43-65-84
Masahiro Tanaka (29), 0.316, 154-199-178
Jaime Garcia (31), 0.319, 129-171-157
Alex Cobb (30), 0.320, 0-22-179
Jason Vargas (35), 0.320, 43-12-179

I think it's safe to assume Tanaka and Lynn are out of the Braves price range.

Fister, Cahill and Vargas should not be considered either due to durability concerns.

That leaves the 4 possible SP targets as Chacin, Sabathia, Garcia, and Cobb.

Cobb will likely be the most expensive guy at 3/45 or higher. Garcia will probably get something a little lower than that. Sabathia is looking at a 1-2 year deal. Chacin is still the guy I think is going to be the best bargain SP this offseason.
 
Enscheff said:
If Dickey doesn't come back for 2018, I would still like to see the Braves acquire a ~2 win pitcher to stabilize the rotation. Here are the FA pitchers who are realistic options, as well as their 2017 xwOBA and number of innings they have thrown the last 3 seasons:

Jhoulys Chacin (30), 0.305, 26-144-180
Lance Lynn (31), 0.308, 175-0-186
Doug Fister (34), 0.310, 103-180-90
CC Sabathia (37), 0.311, 167-179-148
Trevor Cahill (30), 0.313, 43-65-84
Masahiro Tanaka (29), 0.316, 154-199-178
Jaime Garcia (31), 0.319, 129-171-157
Alex Cobb (30), 0.320, 0-22-179
Jason Vargas (35), 0.320, 43-12-179

I think it's safe to assume Tanaka and Lynn are out of the Braves price range.

Fister, Cahill and Vargas should not be considered either due to durability concerns.

That leaves the 4 possible SP targets as Chacin, Sabathia, Garcia, and Cobb.

Cobb will likely be the most expensive guy at 3/45 or higher. Garcia will probably get something a little lower than that. Sabathia is looking at a 1-2 year deal. Chacin is still the guy I think is going to be the best bargain SP this offseason.
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Out of those guys Sabathia would be my preferred option if we could get him for no more than a 1+1 deal. He satisfies a lot of the criteria we need to be looking for, plus there is that added "mentoring" bonus that a lot of people like to see. I can think of no one better to pair with guys like Gohara, Newcomb, and Fried. Chacin would also be a solid option considering we could likely get him fairly cheaply
 
BeanieAntics said:
Out of those guys Sabathia would be my preferred option if we could get him for no more than a 1+1 deal. He satisfies a lot of the criteria we need to be looking for, plus there is that added "mentoring" bonus that a lot of people like to see. I can think of no one better to pair with guys like Gohara, Newcomb, and Fried. Chacin would also be a solid option considering we could likely get him fairly cheaply
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He could definitely give Gohara some pointers on how to pull his weight in a big league rotation.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Out of those guys Sabathia would be my preferred option if we could get him for no more than a 1+1 deal. He satisfies a lot of the criteria we need to be looking for, plus there is that added "mentoring" bonus that a lot of people like to see. I can think of no one better to pair with guys like Gohara, Newcomb, and Fried. Chacin would also be a solid option considering we could likely get him fairly cheaply
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I can definitely see Sabathia as the best option to fill that "short term stop gap veteran SP" if that's the route they ultimately want to go. In fact, he may be the most preferable option specifically because of that.
 
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