Right. Same is true for any 3-4 win MLB player. And position prospects have a higher chance of staying healthy and becoming 3-4 win players.
I’m not sure what that statement has to do with anything.
Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season
- Thread starter bravesfanforlife88
- Start date
Right. Same is true for any 3-4 win MLB player. And position prospects have a higher chance of staying healthy and becoming 3-4 win players.
I’m not sure what that statement has to do with anything.
I believe pitching is bid up more. The prices thrown around for archer and what was paid for sale/Miller was higher than most thought. I get we don't have many examples of position players traded but it does seem pitching is valued more as of now.
Top end pitching is certainly more valuable at the trade deadline due to the fact that elite pitchers can impact playoff series more than a single hitter. Look no further than the difference in trade returns for JD Martinez and Yu Darvish this last season.
Problem is, the return for Darvish is a drop in the bucket compared to the overall value an organization realizes when a prospect becomes a contributor for 6 cost controlled years.
Top position prospects (FV 50+) have shown in various studies to produce almost 2x as much value as similarly rated pitching prospects. That extra value is almost entirely due to the injury rate of pitchers.
If you’re acquiring pitchers over hitters just to maximize the value received in trading them 10 years after you draft them...well...you’re doing it wrong.
I'm advocating drafting/developing pitching so you never have to spend big money on pitching because as you said the injury risk is higher. The goal should be to heavily draft pitching and then use them up to arb-1. If they are valueable you trade them and replace. Spend money on position players.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I agree with the problem not sure teams can roster enough effective pitchers and can get buy in from agents for multi-inning appearances.
I guess a team that has a lot of internal cheap pitching would be in best position to try.
People will be slow to admit it but the Braves approach to build the farm with pitching was always the right decision. THe rest of the league is catching up now.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I still can't begin to understand why the Padres are trying to be the high bidder on Hosmer for 7 years.
Nawwww: When they are right about something it is blind luck. When they are wrong they are the stupidest organization ever in history.
It's a bit like the Phils signing Carlos Santana to play 1B when they already have Rhys Hoskins and aren't truly ready to compete yet.
I must admit, it feels good not being a fan of a team with one of the dumbest FOs anymore!
Nawwww: When they are right about something it is blind luck. When they are wrong they are the stupidest organization ever in history.
Precisely...I just hope AA is as ahead of the curve as the prior regime was.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
You mean ahead of the curve as in pushing the boundaries of cheating and pissing off every other GM in the league while making horrible decisions in the midst of rebuilding. Yes. I hope AA is just like our last regime too.
If you aint cheatin...
I'll play devil's advocate.
They've had a decline in attendance 3 years in a row
They're hopeful of competing in the next couple of years and he's only 28
Being in Petco they may value homerun hitters more if guys aren't running in to homeruns as in other hitter's parks.
Wil Myers and Hosmer could solidify the #3 and #4 spots in the lineup for the next 6 years while they add complimentary parts around them
They have barely any money committed long term
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Hosmer is fools gold of the most damaging kind. He's an every other year 1B who has historically been short on power at a power position during a peak power time in baseball. His WAR has been up and down and his best (4.0) last year was still half a point below Freeman even with 157 more PA. He gets credit for his defense but it isn't really that great.
Anyone buying on Hosmer is buying his potential to get better. But I believe that he's headed to Alex Gordon territory after he's in his 30's with the difference being Gordon plays a slightly less critical offensive position.
Supposedly he has a 7/140 offer from SD and a 7/147 offer from KC. He is holding out for 8-9 years.
How many long term contracts for 1b-only guys have to turn into disasters before teams stop doing this? Howard. Pujols. Miggy. The list goes on and on.
Agreed 7 should be the max. The 10 year deals Pujols and Miggy got were just dumb
This overlooks the fact that a team in the Padres position (in particular) likely needs to go out and sign a name at some point in the event they're serious about contending in a couple years to be taken seriously as a landing spot for other free-agents. The Hosmer situation is a lot like where the Gnats were years ago when they went out and overpaid for Jayson Werth. San Diego has several pieces from within that are beginning to get close - including some pretty interesting arms. If they have a few anchors in place in Hosmer, Myers, and Renfroe with Urias and Tatis coming and intriguing arms like Lamet, Gore, Quantril, Morejon, and Espinoza getting closer future free-agents (particularly veteran Pitchers) are liable to give them more consideration in the future if they've shown they're serious about competing.
I'm not disagreeing that it's likely to turn into an overpay by any means, but at some point they're going to have to show that they're willing to pay for some pieces at some point to be taken seriously - otherwise they become the Rays several years too late (since there are so many better run front offices these days). Like everyone else, the Padres just got the $50 million payout from the MLBAM sale - if you consider that "found money", all of a sudden you're just spending $90-$100 million for 7 years of Hosmer. That doesn't seem like a huge mistake, and certainly shouldn't hamstring them.