There are few scenarios where I would do it...

H

Horsehide Harry

<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
But, given the right deal I would still trade Freeman. My reasoning is that it is highly unlikely that the Braves will be anywhere near competitive in 2018. I would say that with the apparent payroll constraints and the slowed development of the first wave of pitching prospects (Folty, Wisler, Blair, etc.), and to a certain extent the second wave (mostly injury so far - Gohara, Weigel, Allard, Fried, etc) it looks suspect that they can really compete in 2019 - but I admit that they should begin to ramp up into their window in 2019 else the whole rebuild is in jeopardy. With that taken as the baseline of my thinking, it appears to me that Freeman's best years will be spent toiling away on a team that can't or is unlikely to win.

There are a few real competitors who could use a 1B like Freeman in 2018 and beyond and would have the type players to send in return that the Braves would need to be competitive soon and for an extended period of time.

Again, I AM NOT saying give Freeman away. I'm saying if you can replace his expected WAR in the 2020 season and beyond with the young talent that you get back in trade AND move his $20+M per year contract allowing you to go address other needs with that money then you should do it.

As a for instance: Houston. They need a 1B and have the high end prospects needed to make a deal worthwhile. For them it would be about maximizing their opportunity while they are definitely in their window. Freeman for Tucker, Whitley (his PED suspension devalues him a bit in trade value) and Gilberto Celestino.

Yankees: Freeman and $10M for Gleyber Torres, Estevan Florial, Albert Abreu and Brett Gardner (the $10M balances Freeman and Gardner for 2018 and allows the Yanks to stay under the LT threshold)

Cardinals: Freeman and Teheran and $8M for Adam Wainwright, Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty, Carson Kelly and Harrison Bader.

All those deals would bring significant talent back to the Braves aligned with a 2019-2020 type run and would clear payroll space (Freeman and possibly Teheran's salary) for participation in the FA class between 2018-2019.

The trades definitely help the other teams short term as Freeman would be a big piece (possibly the missing piece) for a WS run. It hurts their farm systems (and it should) but it doesn't completely devastate them.

In the Houston deal there's a reasonable chance Tucker provides more WAR than Freeman by 2020 by himself and Whitley has a better chance to be a TOR pitcher than anyone in the Braves system.

The Yankees deal the Braves fix 3B, the OF add another high end arm and pick up a movable OF piece for short term.

The Cardinals deal would provide the starting catcher of the near future, a starting OF and two potential high end arms.

Riley could move to 1B which is probably a better position for him anyway. And the Braves would have a lot of cash to play in the second tier market in the offseason going after guys like Donaldson, Blackmon, Pollock, Kimbrel, etc.
 
There are some scenarios where I would trade Acuna. My reasoning is that it is highly unlikely that the Braves will be anywhere near competitive in 2018...
 
There was a time to trade Freeman (2016 / 2017), but at this point we are about to graduate a ton of cheap, hopefully good players. It makes more sense to push all our chips to the 2019 window and try to maximize that 3-5 year window, especially since we are a small payroll team. With every team basically the same analytically-driven team building strategies, the only teams that can really afford to stretch competitive windows out are the teams that can buy amateur talent.

The alternative is you follow the Rays model and shoot for 84 wins every year and hope that in a given year you lucky. I think the Braves are at least in a position in the new ballpark where they can afford to carry a couple big contracts, so they can really push their chips to the middle every now and again.
 
chop2chip said:
There was a time to trade Freeman (2016 / 2017), but at this point we are about to graduate a ton of cheap, hopefully good players. It makes more sense to push all our chips to the 2019 window and try to maximize that 3-5 year window, especially since we are a small payroll team. With every team basically the same analytically-driven team building strategies, the only teams that can really afford to stretch competitive windows out are the teams that can buy amateur talent.

The alternative is you follow the Rays model and shoot for 84 wins every year and hope that in a given year you lucky. I think the Braves are at least in a position in the new ballpark where they can afford to carry a couple big contracts, so they can really push their chips to the middle every now and again.
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The window opens in 2019 plus or minus a year. Whether it is a long or short window really is going to turn on how well we draft after the window opens and our draft position drops into the lower half.

I think we'll be about a 90 win team for 3-4 years. Beyond that things will turn on the next few drafts.
 
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nsacpi said:
The window opens in 2019 plus or minus a year. Whether it is a long or short window really is going to turn on how well we draft after the window opens and our draft position drops into the lower half.

I think we'll be about a 90 win team for 3-4 years. Beyond that things will turn on the next few drafts.
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Exactly, which is why (since I definitely didn't make this clear in my first post) it makes much more sense to keep Freeman and sign a high-priced free agent or two to pair with the upcoming contention window, instead of waiting for Acuna/Albies, etc. to enter their prime.

Plus one added benefit, if the Braves can compete while Acuna/Albies are pre-arb then I think it would be more likely for these players to be willing to sign an extension that buys out a free agent year or two. If you look at recent history, Freddie has been quoted as saying he signed his extension with the expectation that the Braves would be competitive. I don't think he would have done that if he knew he was going to be a part of a rebuild.
 
chop2chip said:
Exactly, which is why (since I definitely didn't make this clear in my first post) it makes much more sense to keep Freeman and sign a high-priced free agent or two to pair with the upcoming contention window, instead of waiting for Acuna/Albies, etc. to enter their prime.

Plus one added benefit, if the Braves can compete while Acuna/Albies are pre-arb then I think it would be more likely for these players to be willing to sign an extension that buys out a free agent year or two. If you look at recent history, Freddie has been quoted as saying he signed his extension with the expectation that the Braves would be competitive. I don't think he would have done that if he knew he was going to be a part of a rebuild.
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Yeah. I think a team like the Marlins, to pick an extreme example, has developed such a poor reputation that they will have trouble signing players to extensions.
 
You're crazy HH... the pieces are easily in place to where we can compete in 2019. Whichever positions look to be weakest, sign one or two free agents and/or make a trade and we should be right there.
 
The more and more I contemplate this post the more and more ridiculous it is... trading FF at this point would be so dumb.
 
Hey, does HH think the Braves should trade Freeman? I don't think he's ever mentioned his opinion on the matter.
 
Enscheff said:
Hey, does HH think the Braves should trade Freeman? I don't think he's ever mentioned his opinion on the matter.
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As I said, only under the right circumstances.

There's no guarantee that any of the teams above do any of the deals I listed. i think there's a possibility because of the position of the teams in question. However, IF they did, I think the Braves would be better off moving Freeman than keeping him, even now.

The problem as I see it is that Freeman's prime has been, or will be over the next couple of years, wasted by the fact that the Braves were and are rebuilding.

I think people get caught up on names because they like the player. Let's say Freeman will probably bring you 6/5/5/4 WAR (or 20 WAR) over the next four years at a cost of about $21.5M per year then hit FA.

So, any trade to just be equal to the trade of Freeman would have to return 6/5/5/4 WAR over the next 4 years or 20 WAR. To get to that 20 WAR you have some combination of WAR acquired from the trade and signed by the freeing up of the $21.5M per year. If you use the current average $ per WAR of $8M then if the Braves just sign an average value with the $21.5M they free from trading Freeman that's 2.5 WAR per year or 10 WAR. So for the move to be a win, the Braves would need to recognize more than 10 total WAR from the players they recieve back in trade. As long as you don't completely screw up the trade, that should be easy.

Look for instance at the Houston trade I proposed (disregard an arguments as to whether Houston would do the trade since I wouldn't take less: Tucker is essentially the same player as Acuna as far as how he is regarded. How many WAR has everyone been projecting for Acuna over the next four years? 12-16 is what I've seen. Let's say Tucker provides the low end of the Acuna spectrum at 12. Add that to the average output you get from $21.5M per year over the next 4 years and you have 22 WAR or about 10% better than keeping Freeman even without adding ANY WAR contribution from Whitley and/or Celestino. If you say Celestino busts and you get nothing and Whitley only develops into Folty where you get 2 WAR per year, then you still end up at 30 WAR vs the 20 you get by keeping Freeman.

But what about injury you say? I would argue that its a difference between catastrophe and probability. If you turn Freeman into 4 players (ex. Tucker, Whitley, Celestino, FA signee - call the four the alt Freeman) chances are that at some point one or more will get hurt and miss time costing you WAR. But, chances also are that you won't lose all your WAR unless you are just very, very unlucky. OTOH, if you lose Freeman it's a catastrophic loss because you lose all his WAR while he is out. It gets more nuanced as well because what if Freeman gets hurt in 2018 when his expected WAR is highest?

If Freeman's WAR profile over the next 4 years is 6/5/5/4 and the Alt Freeman is 4/5/5/6 which scenario is better for a team looking to contend but not ready in 2018?

Now look BEYOND 2021. No Freeman unless he is re-signed. His $21.5M probably buys you 2 WAR then instead of 2.5. Whereas if you do the trade, you still have the 2+ controlling years on the players you received in trade and get to spend the $21.5M as well.
 
Only reason I could see it making sense is that it's easier to replace offensive production at first and it is nice to have the position open long term for any htting prospects that can't field their position well enough at the major league level.

Even with that I'm not trading freeman as we are about to be competitive.
 
Worst. Idea. Ever.

We should be competing for a playoff spot next year. Certainly 2020 by the latest. We aren't getting a Kings random for Freddie at this point. As good as he is, he's owed 80 million over the next 4 years, and while that is certainly better than market rates, it's far from a bargain. So if we aren't getting multiple top 50 prospects in return that are close to the majors, then it makes zero sense to trade Freeman given our competitive window. We likely will not be able to replace his production cheaply, which means we'll have to sign a FA 1B, a decent one will cost at least 15 million most likely, so you aren't really saving much money.

We need to spend the 2018- 2019 money that's been freed up to upgrade the major league team. Bring in a legit 3b or LFer to pair with Freddie and the young guys. Possibly sign a veteran pitcher like Gio to complement our young staff. A catcher like Yasmani Grandal would be nice. Or may be sure up the pen with a couple of relief pitchers.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Harry a couple more posts and you will have a full dissertation about why the Braves should trade Freddie Freeman.
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It's more about how best to rebuild the team as opposed to Freeman in particular. It just so happens that Freeman is the player in question. I LIKE Freeman. If the Braves didn't have pot holes all over the field and/or had legit offense ready to go in the minors to quickly fill those holes, I might believe differently.

As it is, I think the Braves will be just good enough to not be bad but not good enough to really be good. Because of that, I think Freemans best value to the Braves is in the form of what he can bring back in trade. And, BTW, it's probably best for him and his career IF he really wants to win. If h goes to one of the three teams I listed he's got a real shot at a WS title over the next 3-4 years. If he stays with the Braves he may get a shot at a WC and maybe an outside chance at a Division title. But the Team won't win a WS UNLESS they get really, really lucky.
 
Carp said:
Worst. Idea. Ever.

We should be competing for a playoff spot next year. Certainly 2020 by the latest. We aren't getting a Kings random for Freddie at this point. As good as he is, he's owed 80 million over the next 4 years, and while that is certainly better than market rates, it's far from a bargain. So if we aren't getting multiple top 50 prospects in return that are close to the majors, then it makes zero sense to trade Freeman given our competitive window. We likely will not be able to replace his production cheaply, which means we'll have to sign a FA 1B, a decent one will cost at least 15 million most likely, so you aren't really saving much money.

We need to spend the 2018- 2019 money that's been freed up to upgrade the major league team. Bring in a legit 3b or LFer to pair with Freddie and the young guys. Possibly sign a veteran pitcher like Gio to complement our young staff. A catcher like Yasmani Grandal would be nice. Or may be sure up the pen with a couple of relief pitchers.
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Your post is a classic example of seeing what you expect to see or want to see as opposed to what was really in the post. You were able to generate your post so I can't justify calling you ignorant and I can't believe that you are just willfully misunderstanding. So, I would ask you to go back and read what was written carefully. At no point to I advocate giving Freeman away or even trading him for far away talent.

I'm saying his WAR for 2018 is largely irrelevant since the rest of the team isn't ready. If you replace his WAR for 2019 with equal or better WAR which is what I have proposed then you are at least as good off and IMO better.

Try not to be emotional. If there's a player people like, they tend to get emotional and lose perspective on a conversation.

I LIKE Freeman. He's a vary good player who often is great. BUT, IMO the Braves don't have the luxury of misusing the value of their assets, especially in non-competitive years.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Your post is a classic example of seeing what you expect to see or want to see as opposed to what was really in the post. You were able to generate your post so I can't justify calling you ignorant and I can't believe that you are just willfully misunderstanding. So, I would ask you to go back and read what was written carefully. At no point to I advocate giving Freeman away or even trading him for far away talent.

I'm saying his WAR for 2018 is largely irrelevant since the rest of the team isn't ready. If you replace his WAR for 2019 with equal or better WAR which is what I have proposed then you are at least as good off and IMO better.

Try not to be emotional. If there's a player people like, they tend to get emotional and lose perspective on a conversation.

I LIKE Freeman. He's a vary good player who often is great. BUT, IMO the Braves don't have the luxury of misusing the value of their assets, especially in non-competitive years.
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The problem is it isn't our non-competitive years. It's pretty obvious that we have a real shot to be very competitive next year. He's more than just very good. He's a star. You're advocate trading our only star we've developed right when we are a ot to be competitive again. That's fantastic logic.
 
zbhargrove said:
The problem is it isn't our non-competitive years. It's pretty obvious that we have a real shot to be very competitive next year. He's more than just very good. He's a star. You're advocate trading our only star we've developed right when we are a ot to be competitive again. That's fantastic logic.
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The Braves won't be competitive in 2018. It may look like they will for a while because the schedule is extremely easy early, so if they go into the All-Star break under .500 look out, but the offense is awful, likely worse than last year, the pen is completely untested and the SP is made up of uncertain youngsters and veterans held together with pins and tape. Yes, there are individual areas for excitement: the development of Albies, Acuna and Swanson, hopefully some of the young pitching, etc. But it isn't a good TEAM.

So the hope is they begin to gel a bit in 2019. Freeman will supply about 5 WAR for that season. If you can get 2.5 WAR out of the players you received in trade and 2.5 WAR out of the money that you saved by trading Freeman, then you have covered what you would have gotten out of Freeman. Of course it's not that simple unless the players that you get your WAR out of are replacing players where you got 0 WAR the previous year, like for instance playing Tucker in place of Lane Adams or Markakis and Donaldson in place of Camargo, plus whoever plays 1B adds WAR as well in theory.

Or you could KEEP Freeman and his 5 WAR, add Donaldson and his 5 WAR, eating up the majority of the money that you have to use, try to limp by with a replacement level OF next to Inciarte and Acuna and a catcher replacing Flowers and Suzuki, hope for a WC and watch the team get old and expensive by the end of 2021.
 
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