GDT: PHILS vs BRAVES [Game 3]

thewupk said:
Swanson will be one of the keys. I know you are high on Camargo but if we get production from the left side of the infield then the Braves will have a good position player group. At that point it will fall on the pitchers to where they end up.
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Just from the perspective of fWAR because his defense at 3rd is going to be strong. I think he can be slightly better than league average at the plate.
 
chop2chip said:
“Kapler used 21 pitchers in losing two of the season's first three games”

“But the shift hasn't worked well for the Phillies

Opponents 9-for-19 when hitting grounder/short liner vs Phillies shifts

(including 7-for-17 when they use a full shift with 3 men on one side of field)“

Just get the feeling that these guys may be overthinking things a bit.
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I have no problem with analytics, but anyone who loads up the first base side of the infield with Markakis at the plate is reading the data wrong. Maybe they were pitching him to pull, but for all his faults, Nick can find a way to push the ball the other way when he wants to. Shifts only work when the pitcher can successfully pitch into the shift.

One of my rules of watching has always been "worry about a manager who is obviously managing too much." That's usually a sign of trouble and whether it's analytics or guts, managers who seem to want to make everything a chess match usually end up falling on their faces.
 
Assuming we don't see anything like season-long slumps from the lineup and this from Dansby is real, like I said earlier there's a real chance the more optimistic thoughts actually come somewhat to fruition. I don't think it will fully, but we could see a very similar season to last year's Brewers as an example, just with a few less wins.
 
thewupk said:
Swanson will be one of the keys. I know you are high on Camargo but if we get production from the left side of the infield then the Braves will have a good position player group. At that point it will fall on the pitchers to where they end up.
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If Swanson's turnaround is legit (very skeptical of that) and Tucker's bat continues to be impressive, our lineup is gonna be pretty darn good once Acuna arrives. I actually think Tucker might be for real. In that I think he will be a guy to put up an .800+ OPS. I still need to see more from Swanson before I buy in. We have seen him go through successful stretches then fall off a cliff. Hopefully he can keep it up.
 
thewupk said:
I didn't get to watch most of the games but did they really shift against Neck? He's the epitome of the LHH that you don't shift against.
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They did, and I agree: Markakis (of whom FWIW I am a fan) will put one down the left field line - regardless of how many bounces it will take to reach the outfield - for poops and giggles.
 
There’s no one at this Mets game.

Easter Sunday, after church, could you possibly have anything better to do?
 
sturg33 said:
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I get the whole "3rd time through the line-up" thing, but that's been a thing since the post-dead ball era began. It seems to have turned every manager into Game 7 thinking earlier in the game. Unless pitching staffs are totally revamped, managers are going to have to roll the dice with guys, especially if they have lower pitch counts going into the 6th/7th innings. Of course, game situation (and stage of the season) will also dictate moves, but at this rate, we're going to have to see 17-man pitching staffs with no position players on the bench.
 
50PoundHead said:
I get the whole "3rd time through the line-up" thing, but that's been a thing since the post-dead ball era began. It seems to have turned every manager into Game 7 thinking earlier in the game. Unless pitching staffs are totally revamped, managers are going to have to roll the dice with guys, especially if they have lower pitch counts going into the 6th/7th innings. Of course, game situation (and stage of the season) will also dictate moves, but at this rate, we're going to have to see 17-man pitching staffs with no position players on the bench.
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That's the trend clearly. But I think there is still a significant grey area that will depend on the manager's discretion. How much you let the starter go through the opposing lineup more than twice will depend upon among other things:

1) How well the starter is throwing
2) His pitch count
3) Quality of pen
4) How rested the pen is
5) Platoon matchups
6) How high leverage any situation is
7) Related to 6 above, the score of the game
8) The schedule (when do the rest days fall in particular)
9) Whether an opportunity to pinch hit for the starter presents itself (and the kind of situation that opportunity presents itself)

There are going to be a lot of situations that could be argued either way based upon the above. I thought the Nola move could have gone either way.

Based on the list above, the Braves made the right call yesterday to bring McCarthy back out for the 6th. And they made the right call to take him out after he started laboring and let two of the first three hitters get on base.

When Newcomb pitches tomorrow, I would guess in addition to getting through the lineup twice they will look at trying to get him to get a couple more outs if the gnats have some lefties at the top of the lineup (and Eaton and Harper are likely to hit leadoff and third). I doubt he would face say Zimmerman a third time in any sort of high leverage situation.
 
FYI - Boone just made a strategical move to walk the bases loaded to pitch to smoke. Smoke then hit a grand slam.

He could have faced Donaldson who is getting older and is hurt. Just another example where the numbers don't tell everything.
 
nsacpi said:
That's the trend clearly. But I think there is still a significant grey area that will depend on the manager's discretion. How much you let the starter go through the opposing lineup more than twice will depend upon among other things:

1) How well the starter is throwing

2) His pitch count

3) Quality of pen

4) How rested the pen is

5) Platoon matchups

6) How high leverage any situation is

7) Related to 6 above, the score of the game

8) The schedule (when do the rest days fall in particular)

9) Whether an opportunity to pinch hit for the starter presents itself (and the kind of situation that opportunity presents itself)

There are going to be a lot of situations that could be argued either way based upon the above. I thought the Nola move could have gone either way.

Based on the list above, the Braves made the right call yesterday to bring McCarthy back out for the 6th. And they made the right call to take him out after he started laboring and let two of the first three hitters get on base.

When Newcomb pitches tomorrow, I would guess in addition to getting through the lineup twice they will look at trying to get him to get a couple more outs if the gnats have some lefties at the top of the lineup (and Eaton and Harper are likely to hit leadoff and third). I doubt he would face say Zimmerman a third time in any sort of high leverage situation.
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Not to get philosophical but those are pretty much the same considerations managers have been looking at all along.
 
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