2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION

chop2chip said:
Given the fraud those cucks pulled off in Cobb County, a reasonable fan should expect at least a $150M payroll. Its the $120M payroll ceiling that's infuriating.
Click to expand...

Anyone who believed the "top 10 payroll" blabber deserves to feel like a fool, and can not be called a reasonable fan. Intelli-Braves explained from Day 1 what reasonable payroll expectations should be. Everyone knew the TV contract situation, and everyone can easily see how attendance in other cities correlates to payroll. The Braves organization follows the exact same patterns, and anyone who thought they were somehow in a special situation after being told repeatedly that wasn't the case is a victim of their own naivette.

The Braves are not special. The Battery is not special. Suntrust park is not special. Being owned by LM is not a good or bad thing. The Braves payroll correlates perfectly with their attendance and TV contract figures.

Either way, I don't think $120M will be the ceiling for more than another 1-2 years. In fact, I imagine it's close to the floor for 2019.
 
Last edited:
Enscheff said:
Anyone who believed the "top 10 payroll" blabber deserves to feel like a fool. Intelli-Braves explained from Day 1 what reasonable payroll expectations should be. Everyone knew the TV contract situation, and everyone can easily see how attendance in other cities correlates to payroll. The Braves organization follows the exact same patterns, and anyone who thought they were somehow in a special situation after being told repeatedly that wasn't the case is a victim of their own naivette.
Click to expand...
I agree with this in general. However, league average payroll this year is ~$140M. The Braves are in the top half of attendance, and although I think the Battery's impact on revenue is grossly overstated, its still should be enough to offset the mediocre TV contract to some extent. Again - this isn't about being a big spending player, its about bringing payrolls to levels that correlate with their market size and attendance. A payroll between $140-150M seems right.

Enscheff said:
The Braves are not special. The Battery is not special. Suntrust park is not special. Being owned by LM is not a good or bad thing. The Braves payroll correlates perfectly with their attendance and TV contract figures.
Click to expand...
I agree with all of this. What I find more upsetting is the messaging the team put out immediately after the Cobb County announcement and during the sell-off. The Braves have been moving payroll around for the past three years (Kimbrel, Upton, Kemp, Chris Johnson, etc.) in the name of retaining financial flexibility when their window opened. Now that the window is open we start seeing stories trickle out from Rosenthal and Bowman about the Braves having debt issues. Its rather convenient.

Enscheff said:
Either way, I don't think $120M will be the ceiling for more than another 1-2 years.
Click to expand...

And at that time the average MLB payroll might be around ~$160M. The big issue is despite the new stadium, increase in national revenue streams (MLB at Bat sale, etc.), the team's payroll growth is tracking below league average. I don't hold LM accountable for that. It may simply be the logistics we are stuck with, but the team can definitely control expectations far better.
 
chop2chip said:
I agree with this in general. However, league average payroll this year is ~$140M. The Braves are in the top half of attendance, and although I think the Battery's impact on revenue is grossly overstated, its still should be enough to offset the mediocre TV contract to some extent. Again - this isn't about being a big spending player, its about bringing payrolls to levels that correlate with their market size and attendance. A payroll between $140-150M seems right.


I agree with all of this. What I find more upsetting is the messaging the team put out immediately after the Cobb County announcement and during the sell-off. The Braves have been moving payroll around for the past three years (Kimbrel, Upton, Kemp, Chris Johnson, etc.) in the name of retaining financial flexibility when their window opened. Now that the window is open we start seeing stories trickle out from Rosenthal and Bowman about the Braves having debt issues. Its rather convenient.



And at that time the average MLB payroll might be around ~$160M. The big issue is despite the new stadium, increase in national revenue streams (MLB at Bat sale, etc.), the team's payroll growth is tracking below league average. I don't hold LM accountable for that. It may simply be the logistics we are stuck with, but the team can definitely control expectations far better.
Click to expand...

Can't disagree with any of this, but I doubt we see a $160M payroll for the Braves any time soon.

The limiting factor for payroll may end up being MLB's 12x debt rule.

It would be a shame if the debt from the new park that was supposed to increase revenue ended up being the very thing keeping payroll down.
 
Enscheff said:
Can't disagree with any of this, but I doubt we see a $160M payroll for the Braves any time soon.

The limiting factor for payroll may end up being MLB's 12x debt rule.

It would be a shame if the debt from the new park that was supposed to increase revenue ended up being the very thing keeping payroll down.
Click to expand...

If you can get Moose for JDM return you do.

No way do I give up Soroka for Machado. Wright either. Fried as the headliner I would do if we got him in the next month.

I still think the big deal is going to come for a pitcher. Tigers have shown Fulmer is healthy but he might not stay that way. TB could be selling Archer. I'm not going to like it but I think we'll turn 3+ pitching prospects into Fulmer/Stroman/Archer.

For free agency I still think we need a multiwar LH power bat. I don't see that person outside of Harper or Moose. I don't think we can afford Harper. I keep thinking we do something weird like sign moose for 2/30 + Option, put Riley in RF and spend the rest of the money on extensions and a mid level relief vet.

Next year our LH are FF, albies (switch, weaker side), inciarte (100 wrc+ guy), Comargo (switch/bench) and Tucker (bench). I think we will need a hole to be filled by the LH bat.
 
Enscheff said:
Can't disagree with any of this, but I doubt we see a $160M payroll for the Braves any time soon.

The limiting factor for payroll may end up being MLB's 12x debt rule.

It would be a shame if the debt from the new park that was supposed to increase revenue ended up being the very thing keeping payroll down.
Click to expand...
And it would be an absolute joke if this is something that slipped under the team's radar.

My theory - I think the team was well aware of the debt obligation part, but understood that they had a PR nightmare from the onset due to the huge amount of public funds used to build STP. To redirect the attention of Braves fans, they sent out messages about increased financial flexibility from the park, but speaking mostly in general terms to avoid accountability. Now that the Park is built and the time to spend is nigh, we will see more and more stories come from the likes of Bowman and DOB about how the Braves will be hamstrung w.r.t. payroll until the debt obligation is met. Braves fans will continue to look at upcoming free agents five years down the line when (1) the television deal expires!, (2) the debt is paid off!, (3) when the new <insert condominium> is finished!, etc.

Meanwhile, the Braves will have this publicly funded stadium with bottom third payrolls and everyone will have already forgotten about chicanery they used to fund it.
 
Enscheff said:
AA is already putting in effort to tamp down expectations for this off season:

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/5/...s-offseason-a-list-q-a-atlanta-braves-payroll

"Anthopoulos confirmed that we will be looking at Kimbrel at the end of the season as well as any other big money relievers. Although they will be looking into these options, it may not make sense. This will be dependent on what our needs are and where we are in terms of spending at that time."

"Anthopoulos explained that he doesn’t see the Braves building like the Yankees in terms of spending. He sees us as a mid-size market."

This is all stuff intelli-Braves already knew, but he is setting expectations for casual fans who have spent the last 3+ years under the impression that the Braves could afford guys like Kimbrel, Harper and Machado by now. These fans will be upset when they think the Braves have a ton of money and don't bring in an elite FA.

When Kimbrel gets Jansen-like money, expect to see AA explain that the Braves have already produced Minter, and have a ton of arms that could nearly replicate Kimbrel's production cheaply.

Expect to hear the Braves loosely connected to Machado and Haprer, but when Machado signs for $350M+ and Harper signs for $400M+, AA won't have to explain anything...we all know the Braves aren't getting those guys unless they are able to be "like the Yankees in terms of spending".

That isn't happening with a "mid-sized market" payroll of $120M-$160M (the very top end of reasonable payroll expectations).

Of course, no amount of logic will curtail the inevitable "Just sign Machado or Harper in the offseason" comments from casual fans, but it can help lead some of us to engage in intelligent rosterbation.
Click to expand...

One of those guys (especially Kimbrell) could easily for into this payroll. We haven't really had a chance to see what AA is likely to do. But we do know from his time in Toronto that he isn't afraid to bring in expensive talent.
Though rarely did he acquire that talent via FA, the point is that he did, in fact, acquire players making top end money.

I'm not expecting us to be major players for any elite FA. I feel like it's fairly unlikely, but I'm also not going to assume I know how a new front office will act with (possibly) a lot of money to spend.
 
Enscheff said:
Anyone who believed the "top 10 payroll" blabber deserves to feel like a fool, and can not be called a reasonable fan. Intelli-Braves explained from Day 1 what reasonable payroll expectations should be. Everyone knew the TV contract situation, and everyone can easily see how attendance in other cities correlates to payroll. The Braves organization follows the exact same patterns, and anyone who thought they were somehow in a special situation after being told repeatedly that wasn't the case is a victim of their own naivette.

The Braves are not special. The Battery is not special. Suntrust park is not special. Being owned by LM is not a good or bad thing. The Braves payroll correlates perfectly with their attendance and TV contract figures.

Either way, I don't think $120M will be the ceiling for more than another 1-2 years. In fact, I imagine it's close to the floor for 2019.
Click to expand...

Turning into a Posi huh?
 
I would give up Wright for Machado in a heartbeat. If we make that trade we need to get another reliever too. Orioles are slim pickins in that department.
 
Enscheff said:
Anyone who believed the "top 10 payroll" blabber deserves to feel like a fool, and can not be called a reasonable fan. Intelli-Braves explained from Day 1 what reasonable payroll expectations should be. Everyone knew the TV contract situation, and everyone can easily see how attendance in other cities correlates to payroll. The Braves organization follows the exact same patterns, and anyone who thought they were somehow in a special situation after being told repeatedly that wasn't the case is a victim of their own naivette.

The Braves are not special. The Battery is not special. Suntrust park is not special. Being owned by LM is not a good or bad thing. The Braves payroll correlates perfectly with their attendance and TV contract figures.

Either way, I don't think $120M will be the ceiling for more than another 1-2 years. In fact, I imagine it's close to the floor for 2019.
Click to expand...

So what you are saying is that we trade for Machado, Fuller, and Realmuto... re sign Machado, sign Harper and Kimbrel in the off season... right? Now that's rosterbation!
 
cajunrevenge said:
I would give up Wright for Machado in a heartbeat. If we make that trade we need to get another reliever too. Orioles are slim pickins in that department.
Click to expand...

6 years of Wright, maybe 7 for 3/4 of a season of Machado? I would not. I'm not sure we can even pay Machado's salary this year.
 
I still think Wright will be a TOR starter so no way I’m trading him for a half season rental.
 
Enscheff said:
Anyone who believed the "top 10 payroll" blabber deserves to feel like a fool, and can not be called a reasonable fan. Intelli-Braves explained from Day 1 what reasonable payroll expectations should be. Everyone knew the TV contract situation, and everyone can easily see how attendance in other cities correlates to payroll. The Braves organization follows the exact same patterns, and anyone who thought they were somehow in a special situation after being told repeatedly that wasn't the case is a victim of their own naivette.

The Braves are not special. The Battery is not special. Suntrust park is not special. Being owned by LM is not a good or bad thing. The Braves payroll correlates perfectly with their attendance and TV contract figures.

Either way, I don't think $120M will be the ceiling for more than another 1-2 years. In fact, I imagine it's close to the floor for 2019.
Click to expand...

While I value your contributions here,I wish you would learn to self-edit. The post above would have been just as valuable if you had omitted the first line. Firing a shot at those with whom you disagree is not a requirement for posting.
 
Can we please go ahead and trade for Herrera now? Vizcaino is not a high leverage reliever. Every time we bring him in I cringe. We're lucky to have not blown more leads than we have.

Not sure what the going rate for rental closers is, but last year the Nats traded for Madson and Dootlittle who were under contract for longer and didn't give up an exorbitant package. They also traded for Kintzler and gave up very little.
 
I'd wait until middle of June to make a big move or not.

But we need another high leverage bullpen arm, not sure whats available though.
 
Carp said:
Can we please go ahead and trade for Herrera now? Vizcaino is not a high leverage reliever. Every time we bring him in I cringe. We're lucky to have not blown more leads than we have.

Not sure what the going rate for rental closers is, but last year the Nats traded for Madson and Dootlittle who were under contract for longer and didn't give up an exorbitant package. They also traded for Kintzler and gave up very little.
Click to expand...

That's the real need and it looks like a right handed guy makes the most sense. I don't see a need for a lefthanded arm with minter and freeman as well as some rightness that have great numbers against lefties.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top