Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season

[jpx7]

The game is changing. With the average fastball velocity skyrocketing you aren't seeing as many older hitters because they simply can't catch up to it anymore on average. We saw a perfect example of that with Bautista. It's also why players like Matt Holliday are still free agents. The next big casualty will be Paul Goldshmidt who doesn't have a hit on anything 96+ this year.

According to Schoenfield‘s column this morning, Goldschmidt actually now has one such hit—but it’s still part of a complex of warning signs that are troubling for a guy who, at 30, is still a half-decade from that threshold Orphan mentions.

It’s definitely where things are trending now, but I hope MLB doesn’t get to a point like the NFL is with RBs, where players over 30 are scarce and a lot of guys aren’t productive past a five-year window. I think that’d be a lot less entertaining of a game to follow—not to mention a recipe for a huge CBA overhaul.

 

[thewupk]

According to Schoenfield‘s column this morning, Goldschmidt actually now has one such hit—but it’s still part of a complex of warning signs that are troubling for a guy who, at 30, is still a half-decade from that threshold Orphan mentions.

It’s definitely where things are trending now, but I hope MLB doesn’t get to a point like the NFL is with RBs, where players over 30 are scarce and a lot of guys aren’t productive past a five-year window. I think that’d be a lot less entertaining of a game to follow—not to mention a recipe for a huge CBA overhaul.

1B can crater at anytime at anytime sadly. Should be very careful with any thought of extending Freeman past what he's currently signed.

The MLPA has already been crying about the money/offers being made to their aging vets. Like it or not GM's are going to do what it takes to win. Some fans don't like the 'impurity' of what's happening but in a system where winning is all that matters this is kind of what it comes to.

I think the NFL RB is a good comparison. As someone who's a fan of the Cowboys it sucks knowing watching someone like Emmet again is just going to be a super rarity for any team. Game has changed to a pass first offense where RBs are used and abused for the most part then discarded. Only a select few RBs can be built around offensively.

 

[jpx7]

1B can crater at anytime at anytime sadly. Should be very careful with any thought of extending Freeman past what he's currently signed.

The MLPA has already been crying about the money/offers being made to their aging vets. Like it or not GM's are going to do what it takes to win. Some fans don't like the 'impurity' of what's happening but in a system where winning is all that matters this is kind of what it comes to.

I think the NFL RB is a good comparison. As someone who's a fan of the Cowboys it sucks knowing watching someone like Emmet again is just going to be a super rarity for any team. Game has changed to a pass first offense where RBs are used and abused for the most part then discarded. Only a select few RBs can be built around offensively.

I don't much disagree with you; but, at the same time, in my view, "winning" isn't the telos of sports, entertainment is—with "winning" just happening to be a substantial, but not total, component of entertainment. So for me there is value in getting to watch a guy like Albert Pujols chase legendary thresholds, even if the stats say he's been grinding along as a negative-value player the past year-plus (and even longer if you factor in salary). And I think it'd be a shame if we lose that aspect of the game.

But I don't think we will. Instead, what I think you'll eventually see is some sort of dramatic restructuring of the compensation system, so pre-FA (and especially pre-arb) guys aren't dramatically underpaid relative to production, which I think will thus shift the onus away from overpaying for post-FA (and often decline-phase) production. Then you'll see guys like Pujols paid for what their milestone chasing is actually worth, from an entertainment-value standpoint, as opposed to what they deserved when they were putting up 45 war in their first six seasons and being dramatically uncompensated for it.

 

[thewupk]

I don't much disagree with you; but, at the same time, in my view, "winning" isn't the telos of sports, entertainment is—with "winning" just happening to be a substantial, but not total, component of entertainment. So for me there is value in getting to watch a guy like Albert Pujols chase legendary thresholds, even if the stats say he's been grinding along as a negative-value player the past year-plus (and even longer if you factor in salary). And I think it'd be a shame if we lose that aspect of the game.

But I don't think we will. Instead, what I think you'll eventually see is some sort of dramatic restructuring of the compensation system, so pre-FA (and especially pre-arb) guys aren't dramatically underpaid relative to production, which I think will thus shift the onus away from overpaying for post-FA (and often decline-phase) production. Then you'll see guys like Pujols paid for what their milestone chasing is actually worth, from an entertainment-value standpoint, as opposed to what they deserved when they were putting up 45 war in their first six seasons and being dramatically uncompensated for it.

I could see that. I think it will be hard for owners to give up that insane value they get from young players. As it stands they simply don't have to offer aging veterans anything and there won't be many instances of overpaying for those guys. They have all the leverage.

 

[nsacpi]

I could see that. I think it will be hard for owners to give up that insane value they get from young players. As it stands they simply don't have to offer aging veterans anything and there won't be many instances of overpaying for those guys. They have all the leverage.

Aging veterans should all go to a team like a Marlins (like Ichiro last year). Rebuilding teams make for good old folks homes.

 

[thewupk]

Aging veterans should all go to a team like a Marlins (like Ichiro last year). Rebuilding teams make for good old folks homes.

Florida is where retirees go anyways.

 

[Enscheff]

1B can crater at anytime at anytime sadly. Should be very careful with any thought of extending Freeman past what he's currently signed.

The MLPA has already been crying about the money/offers being made to their aging vets. Like it or not GM's are going to do what it takes to win. Some fans don't like the 'impurity' of what's happening but in a system where winning is all that matters this is kind of what it comes to.

I think the NFL RB is a good comparison. As someone who's a fan of the Cowboys it sucks knowing watching someone like Emmet again is just going to be a super rarity for any team. Game has changed to a pass first offense where RBs are used and abused for the most part then discarded. Only a select few RBs can be built around offensively.

Pujols, Goldschmidt...excellent examples of "athletic 1B" who weren't expected to decline like a typical 1B, but ultimately did.

There is no scenario where it makes sense to extend Freeman past his current contract (outside of a massive home town discount).

 

[striker42]

Pujols, Goldschmidt...excellent examples of "athletic 1B" who weren't expected to decline like a typical 1B, but ultimately did.

There is no scenario where it makes sense to extend Freeman past his current contract (outside of a massive home town discount).

Add Derrek Lee to that list.

But the sense of an extension really depends. I could see Freeman staying very productive and valuable through the first 3 years of a new contract. The problem is I think there would have to be at least 3 more years after that. Most guys like Freddie hit a wall about age 34 or 35.

The real question will be one of windows of competing. If we're in the middle of a window when Freddie's contract runs out, it might make sense to extend him even if we know he'll be an albatross three years later. If we're in a position to compete for the first part of that contract with the window closing later, it makes sense to extend him. Overpay him when we're not really going to compete.

 

[Enscheff]

Add Derrek Lee to that list.

But the sense of an extension really depends. I could see Freeman staying very productive and valuable through the first 3 years of a new contract. The problem is I think there would have to be at least 3 more years after that. Most guys like Freddie hit a wall about age 34 or 35.

The real question will be one of windows of competing. If we're in the middle of a window when Freddie's contract runs out, it might make sense to extend him even if we know he'll be an albatross three years later. If we're in a position to compete for the first part of that contract with the window closing later, it makes sense to extend him. Overpay him when we're not really going to compete.

It's pretty safe to assume that there will always be a 2-3 win 1B available on a short term deal.

That will always be preferable to willingly signing up for an albatross contract paying a 1B into his late 30s.

 

[jpx7]

I could see that. I think it will be hard for owners to give up that insane value they get from young players. As it stands they simply don't have to offer aging veterans anything and there won't be many instances of overpaying for those guys. They have all the leverage.

Not really, once the current CBA is up.

 

[Southcack77]

I could see that. I think it will be hard for owners to give up that insane value they get from young players. As it stands they simply don't have to offer aging veterans anything and there won't be many instances of overpaying for those guys. They have all the leverage.

If the owners stop paying vets, player overall compensation would have nowhere to go but decline and the players will look for more from the owners.

They could look at fixes like the DH in the NL or expanding active rosters, but if it keeps going that way with vets you can expect labor trouble.

 

[Southcack77]

Add Derrek Lee to that list.

But the sense of an extension really depends. I could see Freeman staying very productive and valuable through the first 3 years of a new contract. The problem is I think there would have to be at least 3 more years after that. Most guys like Freddie hit a wall about age 34 or 35.

The real question will be one of windows of competing. If we're in the middle of a window when Freddie's contract runs out, it might make sense to extend him even if we know he'll be an albatross three years later. If we're in a position to compete for the first part of that contract with the window closing later, it makes sense to extend him. Overpay him when we're not really going to compete.

Almost no one overpays upfront though. Makes a ton of sense to do it that way but most teams signing players are trying to squeeze the most out of present.

 

[Super]

Pujols, Goldschmidt...excellent examples of "athletic 1B" who weren't expected to decline like a typical 1B, but ultimately did.

There is no scenario where it makes sense to extend Freeman past his current contract (outside of a massive home town discount).

Pujols is actually 40, too, not 38.

 

[Super]

curious how FG gave Tatis Jr a 65 FV when that's what Acuña got. i think Acuña was clearly a better prospect.

 

[thewupk]

curious how FG gave Tatis Jr a 65 FV when that's what Acuña got. i think Acuña was clearly a better prospect.

Acuna is a better prospect which is why he's ranked higher.

That said I feel the difference in defense closes the gap somewhat.

 

[Orphan Black]

Braves are finally getting Power Ranking recognition...they jumped to number 4 on most lists...most had them 9-11 last week.

 

[Carp]

Pujols, Goldschmidt...excellent examples of "athletic 1B" who weren't expected to decline like a typical 1B, but ultimately did.

There is no scenario where it makes sense to extend Freeman past his current contract (outside of a massive home town discount).

This isn't a phenomena that is especially limited to 1b though. I posted an analysis a few months back showing that 1b over 30 aren't really any more or less likely to see a huge drop in production than any other position.

 

[clvclv]

White Sox cut Todd Cunningham loose.

 

[50PoundHead]

White Sox cut Todd Cunningham loose.

I think Todd needs to start thinking about a new vocation. Five different organizations in less than three years. Thanks Frank Wren.

 

[jpx7]

I think Todd needs to start thinking about a new vocation. Five different organizations in less than three years. Thanks Frank Wren.

Definitely a reach in the second-round, but those high-floor guys really help your batting-average if you count “making the majors at all” as a “win” for any non-first-round draft-pick.

Given his success in AAA over the previous two seasons, he should be able to squeeze another few years as AAAA depth / veteran filler, if he wants to.