2018 MLB Draft Thread

CJ9 said:
Looking at Kiley's chat, he was asked if he'd still project Gorman to Atlanta at 8. His answer: "Yes, but there's a growing sense that, with teams in their meetings and little details leaking out, that beyond the top 5-6 picks, there's a lot of uncertainty, private workouts and shifting opinions. And some crazy rumors in the top 5 at teams price shopping to figure out what all their options are."
Click to expand...

A team taking a cheaper option with their first pick usually needs to have multiple picks before many other teams pick in the 2nd round. There isn't currently a team with 3 picks before the Braves 2nd pick, so no team stands out as an obvious candidate for this tactic. All 7 of the teams picking before the Braves have 2 picks except the Phillies, so those are the only candidates to make a cost saving move that may drop a Top 5 guy into the Braves lap at #8.

The Padres pick at 7 and 38, and since their 2nd pick is before the other teams drafting high, they are the most logical candidate for such a strategy. All the college bats are off the board by 7 according to almost all mocks, so that doesn't help get a college bat to the Braves at 8.

The other teams above the Braves with 2 picks before the Braves pick 2nd are:

Tigers - 1, 44
SF - 2, 45
ChiSox - 4, 46
Cinn - 5, 47
NYM - 6, 48
SD - 7, 38

Swaggerty is available for the Braves at #8 in the Callis/Mayo mock, and I would probably prefer him to Gorman/Stewart. It doesn't sound like the Braves are in on college players anyways though.
 
Enscheff said:
Swaggerty is available for the Braves at #8 in the Callis/Mayo mock, and I would probably prefer him to Gorman/Stewart. It doesn't sound like the Braves are in on college players anyways though.
Click to expand...

Kiley said today that he expects Swaggerty to be there for Oakland at 9, but he expects them to pass. He said Swaggerty's floor is Toronto at 12, but I don't remember ever seeing him connected to us. Agree though, I'd be really happy with him being the pick at 8.
 
Wayne
1:02 Wow, Braves like Seigler? Would that be at 8 or trying to float him to the second round?

Kiley McDaniel
1:02 lol he's a Georgia prep player is it really that surprising? And no, not at 8.

I would love to get Seigler in the 2nd.
 
Ziegler in the second would be a very good get. Jordyn Adams is another one to keep an eye on for the second round.
 
nsacpi said:
Ziegler in the second would be a very good get. Jordyn Adams is another one to keep an eye on for the second round.
Click to expand...

Adams is going to want more money than we'd be able to offer in the second round unless we go WAY off the board at 8. Bet he goes to one of the Tampa, Cleveland, etc. teams with a lot of picks.
 
Bravesy McBravesface
1:14 Isn't Trevor Larnach just a more polished, outfield version of Gorman?

Kiley McDaniel
1:14 Mostly, yes.
 
CJ9 said:
Adams is going to want more money than we'd be able to offer in the second round unless we go WAY off the board at 8. Bet he goes to one of the Tampa, Cleveland, etc. teams with a lot of picks.
Click to expand...

Maybe not Adams, but still think it's entirely plausible that they go "off the board" and try to land one of the HS kids with an over-slot offer in the 2nd still.

Would it really shock anyone if they went with Hankins at #8 and tried to save enough money to add Banfield or Siegler at #49?
 
If you want to go above slot in round 2, the better way is to draft a bunch of college seniors with picks 4-10.
 
nsacpi said:
If you want to go above slot in round 2, the better way is to draft a bunch of college seniors with picks 4-10.
Click to expand...

Correct.

Amazing what logical thought produces.

I would be extremely disappointed if the Braves try to save money at pick 8. I wasn’t a fan of the Anderson/Wentz/Muller draft plan, but it was at least defensible given all the picks the Braves had that year.
 
Last edited:
nsacpi said:
If you want to go above slot in round 2, the better way is to draft a bunch of college seniors with picks 4-10.
Click to expand...

Sometimes you even end up with a decent prospect or two, to boot (as, for instance, Zimmermann seems to be).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jaw
I've long been for spending big early and letting the later rounds 4+ kind of sort themselves out. I've often thought about why teams don't athletes who have maybe failed at other sports and try to teach them baseball over a 5-6 year period in the minor leagues. For instance, you have a college WR who looks the part but doesn't get drafted. Assuming they've been through 4 years of strength and conditioning and nutrition, that part would already be developed. Then it would be about teaching them the game.

If you think about the process of grade schoolers transforming over time into first round picks or players spending a couple of years in college baseball to develop into an early pick who could be at the ML in a couple of years, I think you could do that with college sports guys from other sports and start at a point where the players are more physically and mentally ready than your average 18 year old.

Think about signing high end, expensive guys in rounds 1-3, then taking seniors for the rest of the draft with no leverage and supplementing those guys with athletic lottery tickets than likely won't pay off for 4 or more years (probably a better gamble than taking 16 year old international guys).
 
32 of the current Top 100 prospects, and 77 of the Top 200, were "16 year old international guys" taken in the J2 signing period.

There is no way drafting random college athletes that dropped out of other sports would be a better gamble.
 
Enscheff said:
32 of the current Top 100 prospects, and 77 of the Top 200, were "16 year old international guys" taken in the J2 signing period.

There is no way drafting random college athletes that dropped out of other sports would be a better gamble.
Click to expand...

First of all I didn't say anything about "random" athletes. Of course they would have to be targeted, just like teams do when they sign 16 YO guys or draft picks for that matter.

Secondly, you are right about the prevalence of "16 YO J2 guys" being in the top 100. But why is that? Are we to believe that Dominicans are somehow inherently better baseball players than anyone else in the world? What is the success rate of those J2 guys? How much of there success is based upon financial considerations? If you get the right 16 YO guys then of course that is better. But how often are you right and what is the overall cost?

Let's say you sign 10 international 16YO J2 FA at a cost of $5M and you signed 10 older college athletes that you attempt to turn into baseball players for $1M, which is the better deal? The answer is only the results of the experiment can reveal that.

Teams invest heavily in J2 because it's a way where, if you are good AND lucky, you can still find real bargains.

I'm not saying that you should go with a strategy of "failed" college football players, give up J2, or anything else. I'm saying that the fact that pool of talent is being ignored is a possibility to find value at low cost that no one has tried to exploit, as far as I know, probably because it is so far outside the box.

But, IF you choose to go "top heavy" on a draft, blowing the majority of your money on pick 1-3, then going with seniors with no leverage the rest of the way, you could potentially supplement your minors with some of the failed college football players (or any sport really that might translate) as a low cost gamble and experiment.
 
The problem HH is that a truly athletic college football player wouldn’t be “failed” until much older. Probably 23 or so. By then you are too far behind to ever see any tangible return.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
The problem HH is that a truly athletic college football player wouldn’t be “failed” until much older. Probably 23 or so. By then you are too far behind to ever see any tangible return.
Click to expand...

True. But, I'm not talking about spending a lot of money on them or high draft picks or anything.

With the change in baseball emphasizing control of players through their ~30 YO season, but no further, having guys come up when they are 26 or 27 is OK so long as it isn't a primary strategy.

It happens all the time now where guys from Independent Leagues or guys from Japan or guys that have just bounced around the minors for 10 years, suddenly end up on ML teams when they are 28, 29, 30 and play for a few years before fading into obscurity.

I just think its an area that is undervalued and might be exploited, especially by the Braves over the next few years while they are in J2 purgatory anyway.
 
Jay212033 said:
The more I see and hear about Cole Winn the more I'm liking this kid! Definitely wouldn't mind taking him at 8!
Click to expand...

should be in the mix with Stewart and Liberatore...id be ok with any of those 3....still hoping against hope for Madrigal
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top