2018 MLB Draft Thread

Enscheff said:
I'm only going by the scouting reports on Kelenic for the 60 grade future hit tool. I have no idea how he, or any other prep prospect, might project in the future. I'm not Fat Ben, and I don't pretend to be able to scout players while sitting at home on my ass watching grainy cell phone video shot from the bleachers.

The new baseball is benefiting guys with fringe power much more than guys with elite power. It's a bit like playing whiffle ball in the backyard...make contact and it's a HR no matter how much power the hitter has.

Guys with plus hit tools and average or below power are suddenly the most efficient use of resources in the game.
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I don't dispute that. However, their quantity should lead to it being much easier to find them than guys with elite power.

Kelenic might turn out to be Trout for all I know. BUT, I would say that there is likely a clone of him (or 10) that could be had in round 2 or later.
 
I'd like to know more about what data is out there on the college hitters.

What difference the level makes, how much emphasis should be placed on a final season as opposed to the first seasons.

My sense is big jumps in a final seasons tend to be mirages.

I'm leery of the Florida 3B.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
If the talent is overwhelming yes. But for the sake of floor, I would say no.

Typically I am a BPA person for the top of the draft. However, I don't hold that as absolute. For instance, let's say Madrigal falls to 8. Sure, he's a good player and one of the most attractive things about him is that he will come quick. But for the Braves, where would he play? Not 2B. Likely not SS, even if he CAN play it. Not 3B, nor CF nor RF. His likely hits for good average, but there's no guarantee that even with the new ball he would hit for enough power to play everyday in LF or RF. If you needed a 2B (or Albies was in his 4th or 5th year even) then I would say, fine, take him if he's the BPA.
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Wait, what? Are you suggesting the Braves should not draft Madrigal if he fell to 8?

That point of view completely disqualifies you from any intelligent discussion about the draft.
 
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Horsehide Harry said:
I don't dispute that. However, their quantity should lead to it being much easier to find them than guys with elite power.

Kelenic might turn out to be Trout for all I know. BUT, I would say that there is likely a clone of him (or 10) that could be had in round 2 or later.
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Wait, what...again?

You're saying guys with 60+ grade hit tools are easier to find than guys with elite power?

There are 3 guys with projected hit tools of 60+ in the 2018 draft: Kelenic, Madrigal (70), and some guy named McLain.

There are at least 10 guys with projected power of 65+.

Drafting guys for power is an exceedingly poor strategy. They are not rare at all.

Hitting the baseball is the most valuable sports skill on the planet, and teams should probably be drafting as such.
 
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smootness said:
Right, age likely has a lot to do with it.

Rutherford dropped some prior to the draft a couple years ago because of his age, and that's not working out great right now. He's already 21 and just meh in A+.
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Bubba Starling is another "older" HS pick who didn't pan out.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
You are welcome to your opinion. Good luck with it.
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LOL come on man...

You think power is easier to find than hit tool. Your entire basis for evaluating these guys is completely incorrect.

In the current Top 100 list there are ~15 guys projected for a 60+ hit tool.

There are 100+ guys on the same list projected for 60+ power.

There are literally 2x as many guys projected for 70+ power as there are guys projected for a 60+ hit tool.

Madrigal is projected with a 70 grade hit tool, matched by only 3 players in the current Top 100 hitting prospects.

There is simply no way any rational human being can contend that power like Gorman's is harder to find than a hit tool like Madrigal's...or even like Kelenic's.
 
Enscheff said:
Wait, what...again?

You're saying guys with 60+ grade hit tools are easier to find than guys with elite power?

There are 3 guys with projected hit tools of 60+ in the 2018 draft: Kelenic, Madrigal (70), and some guy named McLain.

There are at least 10 guys with projected power of 65+.

Drafting guys for power is an exceedingly poor strategy. They are not rare at all.

Hitting the baseball is the most valuable sports skill on the planet, and teams should probably be drafting as such.
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It's a projected value, as in "he could be..." and he might be.

But drafting guys for power is only a bad strategy if you miss. When you hit it pays off big.

Sure, guys who aren't projected to have power sometimes develop it. Just as guys who often project to hit, don't. See: Moniak and Rutherford.

As for Madrigal, does he project to be a generational type talent? I think the obvious answer is "no."

It is my opinion that he is ranked so high because of the transitive property being used with Altuve, Albies, Lindor and Pedroia as examples. And, if he turns into one of those guys, or even comes close, then he's worthy of a high pick. I think the odds of that happening are low, since history says that they are low. But people beat the house all the time.

My point was that if he falls to 8 AND there is another player with a similar grade such as a HS player who might have more upside but also more risk, then I wouldn't take Madrigal due to the probability that he's a good but not great (generational) type player, doen't play a premium ML position and has no path to play at the ML level any time soon. In other words you draft him to trade him or to trade Albies. That would be a mistake IMO.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I don't dispute that. However, their quantity should lead to it being much easier to find them than guys with elite power.

Kelenic might turn out to be Trout for all I know. BUT, I would say that there is likely a clone of him (or 10) that could be had in round 2 or later.
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We are more likely to find a decent Gorman-type player in the second round. We did a few years ago in Austin Riley. The second round has been a great round for us to find very good but not elite HS hitting prospects. Freeman. McCann. Riley. Waters last year.

Gorman has a lot of swing and miss. Especially against breaking balls. He could pan out. But I'd rather not take the risks associated with him with the #8 pick.
 
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Enscheff said:
LOL come on man...

You think power is easier to find than hit tool. Your entire basis for evaluating these guys is completely incorrect.

In the current Top 100 list there are ~15 guys projected for a 60+ hit tool.

There are 100+ guys on the same list projected for 60+ power.

There are literally 2x as many guys projected for 70+ power as there are guys projected for a 60+ hit tool.

Madrigal is projected with a 70 grade hit tool, matched by only 3 players in the current Top 100 hitting prospects.

There is simply no way any rational human being can contend that power like Gorman's is harder to find than a hit tool like Madrigal's...or even like Kelenic's.
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Look, I'm not advocating taking Scott Thorman or anyone with a 60 or 70 power rating and a 30 hit rating.

Gorman has a 50 hit rating and a 60 power rating.

Both are projections just like Kelenic's numbers, both could be right, wrong or some mix. If Gorman isn't there, I wouldn't take a power guy there, I would take a pitcher with upside.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
It's a projected value, as in "he could be..." and he might be.

But drafting guys for power is only a bad strategy if you miss. When you hit it pays off big.

Sure, guys who aren't projected to have power sometimes develop it. Just as guys who often project to hit, don't. See: Moniak and Rutherford.

As for Madrigal, does he project to be a generational type talent? I think the obvious answer is "no."

It is my opinion that he is ranked so high because of the transitive property being used with Altuve, Albies, Lindor and Pedroia as examples. And, if he turns into one of those guys, or even comes close, then he's worthy of a high pick. I think the odds of that happening are low, since history says that they are low. But people beat the house all the time.

My point was that if he falls to 8 AND there is another player with a similar grade such as a HS player who might have more upside but also more risk, then I wouldn't take Madrigal due to the probability that he's a good but not great (generational) type player, doen't play a premium ML position and has no path to play at the ML level any time soon. In other words you draft him to trade him or to trade Albies. That would be a mistake IMO.
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Nobody has mentioned any player as a generational talent, and that's not at all what you said. You said, "their (guys with 60+ hit tools) quantity should lead to it being much easier to find them than guys with elite power."

That is demonstrably false. It is also very easy to look up.

Power is much easier to find than hit tool. No amount of explaining your opinion on the matter changes the fact that your entire opinion is based upon a fact you refuse to acknowledge simply because you didn't know that fact until it was brought to your attention after you stated your opinion in 1000 words.

Power is easier to find than hit tool...fact. Period.

If you base your opinion on incorrect facts...well...that's your call. And yes, I'm well aware that you will continue to defend that baseless opinion for the next 5 years rather than conceding to facts.
 
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Horsehide Harry said:
I love it when you turn purple, blue then red. Chill dude.
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PG Rating! What part of the body is turning purple in this scenario?

As for Kelenic, I get a little nervous about northern guys (Yeah, yeah, yeah, Mike Trout, blah, blah, blah). It's a little different now with the showcases and tournaments, but northern kids have shorter high school seasons and the competition is pretty spotty most places. He's got the look and if they take him, I'm fine with it. Just thought I'd throw that note of caution (at least my caution) in there.

nsacpi, I've always been about the hit tool, especially with high school guys. A guy with a solid hit tool that hasn't reached his peak in terms of physical development can develop power much more easily than a power guy can improve his hit tool. Generalization on my part, but guys with better hit tools seem to be able to make adjustments more readily as they move up the ladder. Then again, there's Mickey Moniak.
 
The Phillies fell in love with Moniak. It was unclear whether other teams shared in that. He was a very good prospect. But probably not a consensus #1.

But projecting prospect is hard. Even some of the guys with very highly rated hit tools bust. Of course, the bust rate with the highly rated power guys is even higher.
 
Looking at Kiley's chat, he was asked if he'd still project Gorman to Atlanta at 8. His answer: "Yes, but there's a growing sense that, with teams in their meetings and little details leaking out, that beyond the top 5-6 picks, there's a lot of uncertainty, private workouts and shifting opinions. And some crazy rumors in the top 5 at teams price shopping to figure out what all their options are."
 
Paul
12:06 Can you sell me on Nolan Gorman? Everything I'm reading sounds terrifying and huge bust potential. Brutal spring, contact questions, defense questions. Why should I get excited about him as a potential top 10 pick?

Kiley McDaniel
12:08 You seem very level headed about all this. I would direct you to his report at the link at the top of the chat. It wasn't a brutal spring, the stuff that's being said about him is almost exactly the same as what was being said about Austin Riley 12 months ago. If you believe in Gorman's makeup (and most teams do), he could actually be a bit better than Riley since he's lefty and has a hair more power and may also be a little more advanced offensively in general.

Henry
12:08 Any names the Braves are connected to in the second round?

Kiley McDaniel
12:12 There's a slew of HS players (generally ATL's preference) that will go 20-50 and have big price tags. So knowing who is on the board for that pick is almost impossible since the Braves specifically don't have the pool to maneuver a player there. They've been on Bart (1st) and Seigler (2nd round), but neither will get to the picks they've wanted them at and there's not other catchers in play at those picks. So we'd be more guessing on general tendencies, who is available in a mock scenario and games they've been at deep/often.
 
Interesting comp to Riley. I think a Riley-like player is what we should be looking for in the second round. Even if Gorman is a lefty hitter and a hair better than Riley the #8 pick in the draft seems a bit high for that kind of player.
 
nsacpi said:
Interesting comp to Riley. I think a Riley-like player is what we should be looking for in the second round. Even if Gorman is a lefty hitter and a hair better than Riley the #8 pick in the draft seems a bit high for that kind of player.
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Agreed. Strange to see Kiley get pissy with his response, but I think he actually proved the point of the person who was asking the question.
 
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