Well, the list of unsuccessful pitchers will prob be longer for any team than the list of successful ones.
2018 Trade Deadline ROSTERBATION
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Well, the list of unsuccessful pitchers will prob be longer for any team than the list of successful ones.
Yeah sure. Blair was ranked somewhere as was Wisler, but did we really think he was going to be a world beater ?? I never liked Blair. I always thought he was “maybe” a four or five. I did get sucked in a tad with Wisler because he did so well at the start.
No matter where they were ranked, comparing some guys like Jenkins or Blair to say Soroka, Folty, Newk and Gohara is laughable. The talent levels are worlds apart. Of the guys that have truely flamed out...none have surprised me. Wisler maybe (and he still didn’t have a high talent ceiling that I was excited about.), but he is still pitching and has shown flashes. Fried has disappointed me, but he was always a health risk and thus a gamble.
So far ONE guy has surprised me and that was injury related. Weigel was the first guy that was a disappointment. Jury is still out of course, but he was the first guy of the first crop that I was truely sick about loosing.
We will revisit this in a couple years. It will be interesting to see who claims they didn’t expect much out of the newest crop of pitchers that didn’t pan out.
Plenty of folks here were plenty excited about Blair and Wisler and ManBan and many others.
Can't even fathom the asking price for inter-division trade for an ace. I imagine it starts with two top 5 prospects and another two in the top 10.
I don’t think the Braves have the ammo to get either without giving up players already on the MLB roster.
They should be asking about Frazier though.
Southcack77
Well-known member
On my list, I got Folty and Newcomb as hits and Blair and Wisler as misses. And a whole lot of TBA. Might be missing some misses, but I'm not putting the likes of Whalen, Gant, Jenkins, and Banuelos on there. I don't consider them to have been major prospects as starters. Nothing more than fifth starter bat.
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May be not. I would be willing to part with Swanson in the off-season, but not sure how much more we'd have to add as it's hard to get a gauge on how Swanson is valued around the league at this point. 3-4 WAR SS are typically very valuable.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I thought Wisler might be good.
Oh, forgot about Fried. I don't really see him as more than a fringe starter/reliever now. But that book isn't written yet I guess.
I’ll take your word for it. Don’t have time to go dig up your opinions on old pitching prospects right now. Maybe later.
Many guys were written into many “omg look at this future awesome rotation” lists around here. When they bust folks say “he wasn’t as good as the new prospects”.
I’m not sure how many times folks can say “no really, this time is different” before they realize that it’s not different.
It’s both predictable and tired.
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I had “hoped” Manban would pan out, but he had high injury concerns. It was not a surprise.
Folty, Newk, Soroka....I will be shocked if they are out of the league in two years.
Gohara....I have high hopes, but he could literally be a TOR or eat himself out of the league in two years.
Weigel....I have high hopes...that is all....rooting for him.
Allard has a 50-50 shot, but probably traded and I am not sure he can be anything but an average 4ish type. I hope I’m wrong.
Wright....I do not have a great feeling about.
Touki....high hopes, but my guess is a great bull pen peice. I hope he is a starter...that’s just a “hope” though.
The other guys are too young to project. I’d say one of Anderson, Wentz, Wilson, Muller makes a starter and one a reliever. I like Anderson’s stuff.
I would hate to trade in division. You have to think a Allard, Wright, Muller package would begin a conversation ??
Look up the Sale package. A package for either Mets Ace will have to be similar.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I find it useful to put pitching prospects in one of three buckets. Bucket 1 has over 50% chance of making it as major league starters (say 2 out of three in this bucket). Bucket 2 has about a 50% chance. Bucket 3 less than 50% (say 1 out of 3 chance).
So where have the recent pitching prospects fit into this scheme?
Bucket 1 has had only 1 pitcher for me: Soroka
Bucket 2 has been a pretty big group: Wisler, Folty, Wright, Gohara, Allard, Anderson, Wilson, Stewart
Bucket 3 has the following: Blair, Newcomb, Fried, Wentz, Touki, Rangel, Gant, Sims, Weigel
Note that these are their peak rankings while still in the minors. Obviously, they do not all sustain those peak rankings. And some in the third bucket go on to out-perform when reaching the majors (as Newcomb seems to be doing). I start out Stewart in bucket 2, which is actually quite optimistic considering he has yet to throw a pitch as a professional. Someone like him could obviously move into bucket 1 within the next year as Soroka did not long after signing. Weigel was getting close to bucket 2 for me just before he got hurt.
There is also a fourth group. The long shots. It is ok to talk about them and even get excited about them. But some realism is called for.
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chop2chip
Well-known member
Blair is one that truly surprised me. Not that he wasn’t successful, but that he was ranked so highly. From his first start his stuff was simply unimpressive and it seemed like he struggled with command in every start. I do wonder what his stuff was like in the minors and how much it backed up when he got to Atlanta.
Ironically, he and Wisler’s report was that they were low ceiling, high floor types. It makes you reconsider the concept of a floor.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
You forgot to list Williams Perez
Haha...he was my secret indulgence...i guess someone noticed...but he was the long shot I allowed myself to get excited about...Baby Harang
Sad but true story...i was on a business trip to San Diego a couple years ago and the Braves were in town...so i went to watch two of the worst teams in the majors that year play...Williams Perez was our starting pitcher that day...and on that day he hurt his shoulder...not that he was headed toward anything special as a major league starter...but that injury basically ended it for him...i see though he is still bouncing around and pitched recently for the Mariners' AAA team...so there is still hope
Of course we had high “hopes”, but did anyone really think Sims was anything more than a #4-5 type guy. I liked his bulldog personality lol.