Around the League: 2017 offseason edition / 2018 Season

[clvclv]

If AA isn't convinced that Machado (MVP type player) and an elite bullpen arm could push the team over the top, he needs help. And if you can't see that, you do too.

At no point will you find that I've even hinted that Machado wouldn't make this team better. The question I asked is "does he make this team good enough to beat the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox in 2018?"

If that answer is no - or even "not by himself" - you just can't give up too much. I've consistently said that I think Allard as a centerpiece is a fair gamble, but Allard and Fried is too much when you have no more than two months worth of control. You don't expect it to happen, but for all we know Machado gets here and blows his knee out trying to leg out an infield hit during the first week (like Acuna almost did). He could come over and hit .213/.350/.474 like Harper's doing right now. Would that be worth a couple Top 100 prospects?

If you can get him for Allard OR Fried and a piece or two OUTSIDE our Top 20 - Ynoa/De La Cruz/Sanchez/Davidson/Wilson/Demeritte/Cruz/Lugbauer/possibly even Cumberland - of course it's worth rolling the dice. Anything more is an overpay - adding Machado makes this team better - it doesn't make it a favorite unless you can guarantee that Folty and Newcomb will continue to pitch like "Aces" through October, Acuna comes back and plays like he did his first weeks with no lingering knee problems, Albies isn't going to continue swinging at everything, Markakis is going to keep hitting .320, and NOBODY will get hurt.

Otherwise, this team - even with Machado - isn't going to beat the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox in a 7 game series in 2018 without a lot of luck.

 

[Ozzie Swanson]

Otherwise, this team - even with Machado - isn't going to beat the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox in a 7 game series in 2018 without a lot of luck.

Playoff baseball is a crapshoot. All about getting there and seeing what happens. A Freeman-Machado-Markakis-Acuna middle of the order would give us a very potent lineup to compete in the postseason.

 

[thewupk]

Harper hitting 211 now. Got people on Nats forums hoping he can just be Adam Dunn this year. lol

 

[Southcack77]

At no point will you find that I've even hinted that Machado wouldn't make this team better. The question I asked is "does he make this team good enough to beat the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox in 2018?"

If that answer is no - or even "not by himself" - you just can't give up too much. I've consistently said that I think Allard as a centerpiece is a fair gamble, but Allard and Fried is too much when you have no more than two months worth of control. You don't expect it to happen, but for all we know Machado gets here and blows his knee out trying to leg out an infield hit during the first week (like Acuna almost did). He could come over and hit .213/.350/.474 like Harper's doing right now. Would that be worth a couple Top 100 prospects?

If you can get him for Allard OR Fried and a piece or two OUTSIDE our Top 20 - Ynoa/De La Cruz/Sanchez/Davidson/Wilson/Demeritte/Cruz/Lugbauer/possibly even Cumberland - of course it's worth rolling the dice. Anything more is an overpay - adding Machado makes this team better - it doesn't make it a favorite unless you can guarantee that Folty and Newcomb will continue to pitch like "Aces" through October, Acuna comes back and plays like he did his first weeks with no lingering knee problems, Albies isn't going to continue swinging at everything, Markakis is going to keep hitting .320, and NOBODY will get hurt.

Otherwise, this team - even with Machado - isn't going to beat the Astros, Yankees, or Red Sox in a 7 game series in 2018 without a lot of luck.

I think if I thought that some acquisitions would make the Braves likely to play in the World Series, I wouldn't worry too much about whether the Braves would be favored to win it.

 

[clvclv]

Playoff baseball is a crapshoot. All about getting there and seeing what happens. A Freeman-Machado-Markakis-Acuna middle of the order would give us a very potent lineup to compete in the postseason.

Sure it is - but think about it. AA adding Machado isn't going to suddenly stop the other GMs - with teams particularly built to win this year - from trying to make their teams better. Say we get Machado. Houston then decides to go out and get Hand or Iglesias and maybe even another RP like Brach or Soria. The Yankees go get Fulmer or Archer. The Red Sox go get the other one or Happ (or maybe even Wilson Ramos). The Dodgers go get DeGrom or Realmuto and a healthy Kershaw back and Belinger and Turner start hitting like they always have. The Gnats get healthy (Murphy), Harper starts hitting, and they get a healthy Strasburg back. The Cubs go get another front-line SP and a healthy Darvish back.

Those are all reasonable possibilities that would make that crapshoot MUCH tougher - even if we have Machado.

 

[clvclv]

I think if I thought that some acquisitions would make the Braves likely to play in the World Series, I wouldn't worry too much about whether the Braves would be favored to win it.

There's the operative word - SOME.

Does Machado by himself put this team over the top like Chapman did the Cubs a couple years ago? No.

If AA goes and gets him, he can't stop halfway (like when JS got Tex to hit behind Chipper but didn't fix the rotation) - he has to also get a Hand or Iglesias to slam the door on people, not cause your heart to palpitate every other time he takes the mound like Viz and Minter do right now. Maybe even add someone like Hamels to the rotation to shield Folty and Newk from having to face a Kershaw or Scherzer or Sale or Verlander in a Game 1 and Game 4.

Remember - the vast majority of guys on this team have never even played in a playoff atmosphere - expecting them to not be rattled by it (even if just a little) is crazy. They've been trying to keep from losing 100 games most of their careers, not beat the Yankees in the Bronx in October.

 

[cajunrevenge]

I agree if we make a trade for Machado we have to add a quality reliever. Probably best off expanding the Machado trade than making 2 deals. I don't want another starter though, I think the idea of needing veteran experience in the playoffs is an outdated cliche. What Phillies playoff team did the best. Their youngest team. The Mets too. I think young players bring a fire and urgency that veterans dont.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Hand signed a multi-year extension recently if im not mistaken so his cost will be through the roof...I think expanding on a Machado deal is our best bet....him and Britton or O'Day would be good.

 

[Super]

Hand signed a multi-year extension recently if im not mistaken so his cost will be through the roof...I think expanding on a Machado deal is our best bet....him and Britton or O'Day would be good.

i don't think the fact that a RP signed an extension means he'll be way more expensive. RP contracts don't tend to workout well - ask Colorado.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

i don't think the fact that a RP signed an extension means he'll be way more expensive. RP contracts don't tend to workout well - ask Colorado.

But you are asking for the top reliever in this years class who is signed for at least next season as well....so he is not a rental....teams will without question pay more for that

 

[striker42]

Losing Herrera to the Nats annoys me because the cost was incredibly reasonable and he'd have been a huge lift. We could have slid him in as closer and slid everyone else down a slot. You end up improving every spot in the pen with one addition. I hope AA gets it into gear and grabs a reliever soon.

 

[Carp]

Blake Treinen would be a huge get as well, but with 2.5 years of control left, the cost could be pretty substantial. Familia is likely the best remaining closer at a fair price.

 

[bravesfanforlife88]

Losing Herrera to the Nats annoys me because the cost was incredibly reasonable and he'd have been a huge lift. We could have slid him in as closer and slid everyone else down a slot. You end up improving every spot in the pen with one addition. I hope AA gets it into gear and grabs a reliever soon.

The more I think of the deal the more surprised I am....wouldn't you think Moore could have held out for a better package...as has been mentioned here I believe, you have to think we at least spoke with the Royals about Herrera. It probably came down to the money....

 

[Nerfherders]

How about O'Day and Givens to go along with Machado? We don't necessarily need that top RP guy, we just need some depth. O'Day is a good lefty - been around for years and is solid. Same for Givens from the right side.

If we just go for one RP from one team I'd like Brad Hand. He's probably the closest thing to Andrew Miller out there.

 

[JohnBoy]

What if Moore was hesitant to deal with the Braves after the back-and-forth about him possibly being our next GM?

 

[Southcack77]

But you are asking for the top reliever in this years class who is signed for at least next season as well....so he is not a rental....teams will without question pay more for that

7 m in 2019
7.5 m in 2020
*10 m option for 2021.

Without the extension, he would just be in his last arb year in 2019.

 

[striker42]

The more I think of the deal the more surprised I am....wouldn't you think Moore could have held out for a better package...as has been mentioned here I believe, you have to think we at least spoke with the Royals about Herrera. It probably came down to the money....

This is the only thing that makes sense. The Nats picked up the full amount remaining on his contract. The Royals ownership is notoriously cheap so I wouldn't be surprised if Moore was told to take less to move the contract if he could.

Also, our budget is tight this year. We really weren't expecting to contend and so we carried a lot of dead salary so that we'd be clear moving forward. That makes every penny important this year. If we'd taken on Herrera's salary it might have been the only thing we'd have been able to do this year. It might have come down to the Nats being willing to take on the money.

Still, the pen is our biggest need by far and Herrera was the perfect piece.

 

[Enscheff]

This is the only thing that makes sense. The Nats picked up the full amount remaining on his contract. The Royals ownership is notoriously cheap so I wouldn't be surprised if Moore was told to take less to move the contract if he could.

Also, our budget is tight this year. We really weren't expecting to contend and so we carried a lot of dead salary so that we'd be clear moving forward. That makes every penny important this year. If we'd taken on Herrera's salary it might have been the only thing we'd have been able to do this year. It might have come down to the Nats being willing to take on the money.

Still, the pen is our biggest need by far and Herrera was the perfect piece.

I have no doubt the surge in attendance will allow the Braves to add some salary at the deadline, but they also might be dealing with some slow moving processes to get the budget increased. New projections leading to a new salary cap may not be done and signed off on yet. Perhaps the Nats were able to swoop in because the Braves weren't quite ready to start making additions.

There were probably several contributing issues, and I wouldn't worry about the Braves missing out on the first BP arm to be traded this season. They will almost certainly make 1-2 additions within the next month, and hopefully AA is able to get good value.

 

[zbhargrove]

If he's cheap enough, he presents an upgrade at 3b (though a slight one) and he deepens the bench. He very clearly would add value to this team. Considering the return for Herrera, we may be able to get Moose for Dustin Peterson level players.

I guess he makes the bench deeper, he does not upgrade 3B at all though... same offensive production, less defense production.

 

[clvclv]

I agree if we make a trade for Machado we have to add a quality reliever. Probably best off expanding the Machado trade than making 2 deals. I don't want another starter though, I think the idea of needing veteran experience in the playoffs is an outdated cliche. What Phillies playoff team did the best. Their youngest team. The Mets too. I think young players bring a fire and urgency that veterans dont.

I keep bouncing back and forth on this part. I don't dislike the idea of adding a veteran SP with playoff and pennant race experience, but I'm not sold on it being necessary either. If that was a consideration, then (as others have mentioned before) Texas makes the ideal target - arguably even as a one-stop shop. Figuring out the fair level of prospects would be tough, but if Daniels is willing to eat money to improve the return (just using an arbtrary figure of 50% as deadline salary left to pay) Hamels is due $11,250,000, Beltre is due $9,000,000, and Kela is due $600,000 for the rest of 2018.

Somebody else can use their sliding-rule prospect valuation chart to decide what the numbers-folks would have to have to make a deal for all three happen, but I'd be willing to give up significantly more in a deal for those three than in a Machado deal simply to have the choice of whether to exercise Hamels' option and the extra control over Kela. Kela doesn't have Hand's or Iglesias' reputation, but don't sleep on him - if you take out his two meltdowns this year (April 20th when he gave up 3 runs in 0.1 inning against Seattle in a non-save situation, and May 1 when he gave up 4 runs against Cleveland in another non-save situation) he's only given up 4 ER all year with a 28/10 K/BB Ratio in 24 IP. He's been lights-out in save situations, and isn't arbitration-eligible until after next season (when Viz could be allowed to walk).

That would give you your playoff vet SP, your RH hitting Gold Glove level defender at 3B (who also isn't insistent on playing SS and doesn't block Riley) to split Freeman and Markakis up, and another high-leverage pen arm.

Not sure how much money AA would have to ask them to buy-down with better prospects, but if there's another place he could go to get all 3 of those pieces in one deal I have no idea where it is. The money for buying out Hamels in 2019 (if we decided to) doesn't really need to be factored in (other than hopefully lessening prospect return) since we've got plenty of room to cover that when it comes due.