Of course Trout was already established as the best player in baseball we he signed that deal. I don't think there has been enough inflation since then to justify it.
Extenting Acuna
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
Of course Trout was already established as the best player in baseball we he signed that deal. I don't think there has been enough inflation since then to justify it.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
First of all, I think you are over-factoring the injury risk and disappointment risk. It is absolutely a risk, but saving a potential 15 million per year on his prime seasons is more than worth that risk. You are almost assuming it will certainly happen to justify not offering him the aforementioned deal. The second part of this simply isn't true. You don't have to provide surplus value to help a team. It makes the value proposition less appealing, sure. But we would still be getting market value on an impact player. That isn't easy and that is definitely beneficial to the Braves.
Given what we currently know about Acuna's trajectory, its almost unreasonably bearish to assume that he would produce 3 wins per year or less during his prime seasons. He has produced more than that in half a season as a 20 year old. The only reason we set that 3 win number is to illustrate the bar that he would have to meet to make it worthwhile. A 3 win bar for a player of his caliber is not that high at all and I think the bearishness of that number properly bakes in the proposed injury/regression risk.
Look at what the market currently is. Bryce Harper has averaged like 2.5 bWAR over the past 3 seasons and people are talking about giving him a 40 million+ AAV. Factor in inflation and Acuna could be seeing mind blowing numbers in 2025 or whenever.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
It's been 3 years since Trout signed. 2 years of solid inflation. Though you're largely correct about being more established, but if we wait we'll have to pay more than that if he's as legit as he has been so far.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
Because of the current debt load I wouldn’t expect to see any extensions or signings beyond 3 - 4 years and 80-100 million. Player contracts are debt just like the debt for the brick and mortor at suntrust. I think it will take four years to bring the debt down to a point that mega contracts are even an option for the Braves. Remember how much of the Marlins debt was tied to Stanton.
The strategy to invest in brick and mortor stinks for fans in the short term.
Southcack77
Well-known member
You can’t create a window by paying players what they are worth as a mid-payroll franchise.
You have to have surplus value elsewhere. The cheap production creates the window.
Having good/great players creates the window. The idea that the Braves can only be good when Acuna is cheap is dumb. The Braves will have high paid players on it's team and I think Acuna will be the best player of this group and is worth extending.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Acuna is going to get 500 PA. That’s much more than half a year.
I understand that you think Acuna is going to be a perennial MVP candidate.
That’s implied by the fact you think committing to pay him 30 million dollars is a good deal.
You are essentially pencilling him into the hall of fame if you think he’s going to put up ten years of far better than 4 WAR production
I’m not bearish on him, but you aren’t seriously considering the downside, imo.
.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Don’t be stupid. That’s nothing like what I said.
Paying Acuna fairly for production doesn’t create or eliminate a window.
A fairly compensated Acuna can be a good player on a great team or he can be a good player on a bad team.
You’ve all decided he’s a superstar. I might agree with you. But you aren’t actually considering the risk f his breaking his face and losing his power. Or never being able to fix a hole in his swing. Or of injuring his legs sufficient enough to make him a corner bat that doesn’t stay in great shape. Or of being derailed by constant nagging injuries. Or any of the 1000 things that regularly impact once hall of fame promising careers.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think none of this is actually a concern.
Acuña’s Bat Flip
NL Rookie of the Year
Give him whatever he wants. I'm sure some people here would chip in.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Acuna had like 3.3 bWAR at the 81 game mark of his career. Half a season. His trajectory puts him squarely on course to exceed that in his prime years. By a lot. But even if he doesn't, I think 3 WAR is on the absolute floor of what you could expect of a prime aged healthy Acuna. Of course there is injury downside. But yeah if the worst realistic non-injury scenario for Acuna is paying him market value, while the upside is him being one of the top 5 players in baseball, you bet your a** I would pay him 25 million a year 6 years from now.
What is your argument here? Is it that we should let him walk no matter what? Is it that we need more data? Because if we spend 3 more seasons getting data on Acuna so we are 100% sure that he is going to be a stud in his prime years, it'll be too late. We'll have to either pay him upwards of 40 million a year (while also guaranteeing him a contract that extends wayyyyy beyond his age 30 season) or watch him walk after arbitration. The downside to both of those are not only likely, but inevitable. We would either being paying an absurd amount of money for a declining 36 year old in 16 years or he'll be a Yankee/Dodger/Red Sock/Cub in 6 years.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
just to be clear I'm not interested in paying Acuna fairly...that's why the offer I outlined in my opening post only pays him the current going rate for a 3 win player...I'm only interested in extenting our homegrown talent on team friendly terms...I'm not wedded to any particular player...but for reasons I've articulated in this thread I think AA should approach Acuna and his agent about a long-term deal this off-season
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
No we absolutely are factoring that in and we are saying that the risk is easily worth the reward. There are very few non-injury things that could happen to him that would make me think he'll be worth less than 3 WAR from ages 27-30. Going by your logic, you should never ever give extensions to young players or really any kind of long term contract to anyone. All of the things you just described could happen to anyone. The fact is that its probably more likely to happen to Mike Trout in this time span than it is Acuna, given the age difference. But I'd still be willing to pay him a ton if the Braves could afford such a contract. The Braves probably couldn't. But they could afford 25-30 in a few years and Acuna is exactly the type of player that you'd wanna make that deal for.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Yeah my argument is that I think the floor for age 27 Acuna is 3 wins, making 25 million a relatively safe bet. The most likely outcome is that he ends up being underpaid by 10-15 million a year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
yup...and there is both upside and downside to that most likely outcome...that's the case with any contract
Acuña’s Bat Flip
NL Rookie of the Year
He probably wouldn't take our offer.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
that's ok...what's not ok imo is not trying for that kind of deal
Acuña’s Bat Flip
NL Rookie of the Year
I agree with that.
Every contract has risks. Some are worth making over others. Acuna at 30 million in his prime is a much better value than paying market value for a meh outfielder to replace him after he leaves
Southcack77
Well-known member
I’ve already said what I’d do. You can scroll back if you want.
I don’t particularly care if he wears another uniform if it doesn’t make sense to keep him.
That’s life. I’m beyond having player heroes at this point. Sometimes wish I wasn’t.