Acuña’s Bat Flip
NL Rookie of the Year
I think the only risk here is injury but that could be said for any player.
Extenting Acuna
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
Southcrack is the only one missing the point here. Everyone seems to have a general grasp of the situation facing the Braves.
Every contract extension is a risk, and the upside is a cost controlled excellent player.
Guaranteeing Acuna 6/60 is the price the Braves will have to pay to control his first couple FA years without guaranteeing his decline years. That’s the whole point. That’s where the bulk of the surplus value lies.
This is very basic player valuation. I’m not sure what the issue is other than him being his usual pointlessly contrarian self.
Every contract extension is a risk, and the upside is a cost controlled excellent player.
Guaranteeing Acuna 6/60 is the price the Braves will have to pay to control his first couple FA years without guaranteeing his decline years. That’s the whole point. That’s where the bulk of the surplus value lies.
This is very basic player valuation. I’m not sure what the issue is other than him being his usual pointlessly contrarian self.
Southcack77
Well-known member
No, I don't think 10 year guaranteed contracts are particularly good ideas in general.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I'm not missing any point.
I don't think a mid-market team should be guaranteeing money ten years in the future for a first year player when it already controls six of those years.
I understand that everyone here has looked at his first season and mentally pencilled him into the Hall of Fame. That's how you are all valuing him.
Personally, I think it is very possible. It's been a hell of a start.
I wouldn't guarantee 10 years to get four years at a 25 AAV. I don't think it is necessary.
It's a difference of opinion. Nothing contrary about it.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
in general no...but in specifics there might be circumstances where the answer is yes...when the player is very young...if you are able to buy out some free agent years on club friendly terms
Southcack77
Well-known member
Make the last two years options, and it looks better to me. But I would still wait.
This is actually exactly what a mid-market team should be doing when they get a player like this. It increases his value.
yeah, i'm confused. in order to get studs in their prime a mid-market team prob has sign them to this kind of deal.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I am crystal clear that everyone advocating for extending him at big money is 100% sure he's an All Star or better player with the Hall of Fame as a legitimate possibility.
And I absolutely agree with that you that if that is true then the proposed deal would work out great if he stayed healthy.
And if it turned out that way, he would be tradeable and have arguably more value.
that's hardly the point of why I wouldn't do this now, but I'm tired of the thing already. You guys are in love and the heart what it wants and the heart wants Acuna to die a Brave.
No point in repeating myself any more, so I will make it up to you by trying to resign myself to reporting on the Braves pending playoff appearance, the amazingness Braves stats for various hand-picked samples, and the relative financial health of the Braves as opposed to the quite frankly bizarre internet rumors about their crushing debt.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
we all know there is no such thing as a 100% sure thing...the argument for the kind of extension i proposed does not rest on that
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Thanks for the reminder. The TV deal is a big competitive disadvantage. The amazing thing is we have a chance to be a competitive team over the next ten years even with the albatross of a bad TV deal.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
You are just arguing a straw man at this point because you have dug in to this contrarian point. Nobody here is saying that a contract extension is risk free. It carries just a much risk as any other contract extension. But what everyone is saying is that the potential reward for such a contract far outweighs the potential downside.
Even if I was 50% sure that Acuna would be an All Star level player, 30% that he would be a 3 win player, and 20% that he'd have a catastrophic injury or regress horribly, I'd still do the deal that nsacpi proposed. Because 80% of the time we would be getting at least market value for a 3 win player and 50% of the time we would be getting ridiculously good value on that player.
You're arguing that we're blinded by adoration and that this is not wise financially, but I'm telling you it actually is wise for a team in the Braves' position.
Of course there's risk. But he already is an All-Star level player at 20. So I don't really see how there's a whole lot more risk than signing any player to any long-term deal. And while waiting could reduce some of that risk, it also increases the amount that must be paid. Which, as you know, is difficult for a mid-market team.
So if a mid-market team wants a player like Acuna through much or even all of his prime at the cheapest possible value, you have to extend him now.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Maybe I'm colder, maybe I'm unreasonably risk averse. Maybe I'm distrustful of human nature or fate's intentions towards the Braves.
But, I wouldn't do an extension now unless it was on unbelievably good terms. I personally do not think the deal the OP suggested qualifies.
I'm prepared to buy future years from him at more expensive rates if it appears warranted down the road. Or let him walk. Or cash him for prospects. I can live with the risk of losing him seven years from now and with the feeling that you let a bargain get past you.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
I have wondered how the new free agency landscape will affect extensions for young players after last offseason. That big guaranteed payday at the end of team control doesn't look as certain as it did a couple of years ago, especially if you are going to be 30 or older when you get there. Every young star and their agent have new calculations to make. I would think a 24 year old rookie would be more likely now to take guaranteed money. For a 20 year old like Acuna it may make even more sense gamble on free agency.
This is all fine. We can disagree on which side of the debate we'd fall on. But saying it isn't wise financially (or at least wouldn't be a legitimate move) for a team in a mid-market is just wrong.
