2018 Offseason And Targets

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Camargo moving into a super utility role is a good thing for the Braves as it strengthens a bench that was a weakness last season. He can give Donaldson, Swanson, Albies, or Freeman a day off if needed to keep everyone fresh and he is a switch hitter...

A 1 year, prove it deal for Donaldson makes a ton of sense for this team....a 2 year deal still makes some sense, but a 3 year deal would not, unless you plan to trade Riley this offseason...if Donaldson gets hurt during the season, Riley comes up to play 3B if he is hitting well...Riley only played 75 games in AAA and seemed to be streaky, moving up the MLB would be a big adjustment. Not saying he can't do it, but we wouldn't be doing any favors to him if we through him into the fire
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Signing Donaldson makes sense if you believe he can return to his 2017 Toronto form and probably makes sense if he returns to his 2014 Oakland form. Riley isn't ready. Camargo is fine but isn't really a #4 which is what the Braves need. If Camargo could play 2nd, short and third and at least be passable as a corner OF, then I think taking a chance on Donaldson makes a lot of sense if his 2018 season presents a value opportunity. I wouldn't pay him 4 years $80M at this point but 3 years $45M might not be a bad gamble, especially if that 3/45 comes without a no trade provision.

If Riley plays all of 2019 in AAA and shows that he's ready, and you are fortunate to have Donaldson return to 2017 Toronto form, then you have the option of trading either between 2019 and 2020.
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Donaldson is almost certainly going to be playing on a 1 year deal. If the Braves want to move Camargo to a utility role and keep Riley down for another year, Donaldson makes sense for $15M+.

I don't think the Braves are in position to spend that kind of cash on 3B when Camargo and Riley can almost certainly provide ~2 WAR for free, and there are gaping holes in cOF and C. I'm thinking 600+ PAs in AA/AAA without any improvement in his K rate tells us Riley may be just about ready to see what happens at the MLB level...good or bad.

Barring a huge trade involving Riley/Camargo, I'm going to guess Donaldson will be playing elsewhere.
 
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clvclv said:
The only problem I have with this is - aren't you more or less taking another Markakis gamble with a deal like that?

The offense finished 4th in the NL in wOBA this season, and you'd expect that number to rise with an extra month worth of ABs from Camargo and a Markakis upgrade. I don't have a problem with bringing Zook back IF the $$$ for Grandal goes where some think it might or the asking price for Realmuto remains ridiculously exorbitant, but a 3 year deal for Donaldson just screams that he's going to be "in the way" at some point - and maybe soon. I understand slow-playing Riley, but once he gets here Donaldson becomes an expensively redundant piece who you can't DH. Even if he's "worth" his contract, he could easily become another Julio - someone everyone else is only interested in if you give him away for chump change.

I get that some folks aren't fans of spending much on the pen, but I'd probably rather splurge on a surer thing at the back-end than commit 3 years to Donaldson at this point. If he's willing to take a one-year "prove it deal", I'd be much more interested - just don't like the idea of being stuck with him and not being able to get pretty good value for him.

I realize I've been higher on Riley than most around here for a good while, but I think the organization feels the same way - they certainly haven't done anything to signal something differently thus far.
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Did you just call spending cash on BP FAs a "surer thing"?

Is this the same as extending Sam Freeman to "provide more flexibility"?
 
The more I think about adding Donaldson, the more I like the move, on a 1 year deal. It doesn't mortgage the future. You aren't giving up prospect capital to improve the situation. Riley spends more time getting seasoning in AAA to prove that he is ready. The bench is strengthened by Camargo...

We need to add some power this offseason...there is not a ton of if unless you go after Harper or Machado, which we will not be going after them.
 
The Braves currently project to produce the following amount of WAR from 3 positions:

cOF: 0 WAR
Catcher: 1-2 WAR
3B: 2-3 WAR

Where would you suggest they invest the most resources?
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves currently project to produce the following amount of WAR from 3 positions:

cOF: 0 WAR
Catcher: 1-2 WAR
3B: 2-3 WAR

Where would you suggest they invest the most resources?
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If you make the 3 moves I proposed earlier...

cOF: Peralta; averages 2.5 WAR through his career (net +2 WAR)
C: Ramos; averages 1.5 WAR through his career (right there on current projection)
3B: Donaldson; averages just over 4.5 WAR through his career (on the low end probably gets you 2 or 3 WAR, but 4-5 WAR is not out of the realm of possibility.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves currently project to produce the following amount of WAR from 3 positions:

cOF: 0 WAR
Catcher: 1-2 WAR
3B: 2-3 WAR

Where would you suggest they invest the most resources?
Click to expand...

For some reason I could see Comargo being traded. We're not going to like it and we didn't when Prado was either, but it could happen.
 
Enscheff said:
Did you just call spending cash on BP FAs a "surer thing"?

Is this the same as extending Sam Freeman to "provide more flexibility"?
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A "surer thing" if you're looking to improve in areas that could use significant improvement.

You said it yourself, Donaldson isn't likely to provide a huge upgrade over Camargo/Riley - particularly if you have to sign him for more than 1 year (and we're all aware how deeply it hurt you to agree with me on that point).

We have no clue where the market for very good back-end guys is going this winter since there are so many available and more than a few big contracts blew up in teams' faces after they were signed last winter. There are liable to be several bargains out there this winter, so yes I'd prefer to spend similar money on two-year deals for a pair of guys capable of finally giving us a really deep lockdown-type pen over paying Donaldson for 3 years.

Our pen was ranked 17th according to your precious FanGraphs, and the only team that ranked lower to make the playoffs was the Indians. I have no problem with those intent on avoiding the Kimbrels and Brittons given their likely lofty price tags, but adding two of Familia, Ottavino, Robertson, Herrera, Soria, Doolittle, even Holland (to give you more to senselessly take shots at me with) etc. would go a long way towards improving what was the worst part of the 2018 team. That would also allow you to utilize the Newk/Fried types in that big trade rather than potentially transitioning them to the pen full-time.
 
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AA and Snitker have both telegraphed that the pen will be an area they will try to upgrade. I think we will try to sign one of Britton, Robertson or Familia. Not likely we will go for two.

Kimbrel is a pipedream.
 
bravesfanforlife88 said:
If you make the 3 moves I proposed earlier...

cOF: Peralta; averages 2.5 WAR through his career (net +2 WAR)
C: Ramos; averages 1.5 WAR through his career (right there on current projection)
3B: Donaldson; averages just over 4.5 WAR through his career (on the low end probably gets you 2 or 3 WAR, but 4-5 WAR is not out of the realm of possibility.
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Adding up the 2019 cost in terms of payroll...

$8M for Peralta, $10M+ for Ramos, $20M for Donaldson.

A total expenditure of $38M+ in 2019 is certainly doable, especially if it pushes Camargo to the bench.

Will the Braves want to spend $20M on 3B and keep Riley down in AAA all year (or until Donaldson breaks)? I'm skeptical they will splurge that kind of money on 3B when viable in house options exist, but it's feasible they aren't sold on Riley/Camargo being the answer...and I'm sure AA loves Donaldson.
 
MLBTR just posted the market snapshot for the OF...

cOF: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/2018-19-market-snapshot-corner-outfield.html

CF: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/2018-19-market-snapshot-center-field.html

I'm guessing the Braves will be looking to add 2 OFs...an everyday player with an impact bat in cOF, and a 4th OFer to compliment the everyday trio. Since Acuna can cover CF when Ender needs a day off, this 4th OFer does not necessarily need to be able to handle CF, but he will probably still need to be a competent defender...like what the Braves thought Duvall was.

Gardner is a more intriguing option than I thought. He would slot in well at the top of the lineup and allow Acuna to move down into the 2-4 slots. His down year offensively appears at first glance to be a product of his .272 BABIP.

Cutch could work. Peralta would work. Brantley would fit. Many options to get that 2-3 win guy.
 
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nsacpi said:
AA and Snitker have both telegraphed that the pen will be an area they will try to upgrade. I think we will try to sign one of Britton, Robertson or Familia. Not likely we will go for two.

Kimbrel is a pipedream.
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Wouldn't disagree at all, but given the sheer volume of guys out there this winter I'm not going to be surprised if there's not another bargain out there left without a chair when the music stops - one that would really like to play for a contender if he's going to have to take a prove it deal. That's why I could see two additions. Say one of those three costs you ~ $10 million per, picking up another strong option with the money you could save by cutting bait with Freeman, Lindgren, and Ramirez would be a no-brainer for me - especially if AA traded for a replacement corner bat (Peralta?) making less money than Markakis did last season. Then you could let Duvall walk and have that money available to use as well with Culberson and Camargo becoming your extra OFs when Riley comes up.
 
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Enscheff said:
MLBTR just posted the market snapshot for the OF...

cOF: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/2018-19-market-snapshot-corner-outfield.html

CF: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/2018-19-market-snapshot-center-field.html

I'm guessing the Braves will be looking to add 2 OFs...an everyday player with an impact bat in cOF, and a 4th OFer to compliment the everyday trio. Since Acuna can cover CF when Ender needs a day off, this 4th OFer does not necessarily need to be able to handle CF, but he will probably still need to be a competent defender...like what the Braves thought Duvall was.

Gardner is a more intriguing option than I thought. He would slot in well at the top of the lineup and allow Acuna to move down into the 2-4 slots. His down year offensively appears at first glance to be a product of his .272 BABIP.

Cutch could work. Peralta would work. Brantley would fit. Many options to get that 2-3 win guy.
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Wow!

So Cutch and Gardner are good ideas now that someone else mentions them?

Shocking.
 
Does McCann have anything left in the tank? Think maybe a Julio Teheran for McCann swap could make sense? McCann was bad this year hitting, but he had a .767 ops vs rhp last year. Flowers was good vs lhp. This would allow Astros to pursue grandal. Dallas K and Morton are FAs, so Astros could maybe have a spot for Julio. We'd trade Julio's 2 years for 1 year of McCann. Not sure how McCann's framing is.

Dave Stewart hired me as his assistant, so granted, I'm not good at trade ideas
 
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