2018 Offseason And Targets

[BeanieAntics]

Why would they trade their best player.

Well, if you are the Rockies you'd have to consider it if you can't resign him. It's basically them choosing if they want to compete this year or not. If they want to make one more run at it, then you keep him. If you think you're still not there, you probably should try to trade him before you get in a situation like that Orioles did with Machado.

 

[thewupk]

Why would they trade their best player.

They won't because they are expecting to be contenders next year. Although he will be next years Machado if the Rockies are out of it at the deadline. With that being said he won't cost as much as some are expecting. He's going to make bank in his last year of arbitration. There won't be that much surplus value there.

 

[thewupk]

Well, if you are the Rockies you'd have to consider it if you can't resign him. It's basically them choosing if they want to compete this year or not. If they want to make one more run at it, then you keep him. If you think you're still not there, you probably should try to trade him before you get in a situation like that Orioles did with Machado.

Main difference is everyone but the O's knew they were bad. Rockies are a good team. They should and will go for it.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Main difference is everyone but the O's knew they were bad. Rockies are a good team. They should and will go for it.

How good are they though? Given their run differential its pretty clear that they were fairly lucky last year. Do they have a realistic shot at winning a World Series with that roster? Or that roster plus a couple additions? On a roster that could be without Lemahieu, Ottavino, Parra, and Cargo? I'm less confident than you are. Especially when they are in a division with the Dodgers, isn't the best they can really hope for a wild card berth?

I think you have to weigh that against the significant value that you could get from an offseason trade of Arenado. You can decide to go for it, but you REALLY better go for it with everything you've got. Because once Arenado walks, their 2020 outlook begins to look quite a bit more dim.

 

[thewupk]

How good are they though? Given their run differential its pretty clear that they were fairly lucky last year. Do they have a realistic shot at winning a World Series with that roster? Or that roster plus a couple additions? On a roster that could be without Lemahieu, Ottavino, Parra, and Cargo? I'm less confident than you are. Especially when they are in a division with the Dodgers, isn't the best they can really hope for a wild card berth?

I think you have to weigh that against the significant value that you could get from an offseason trade of Arenado. You can decide to go for it, but you REALLY better go for it with everything you've got. Because once Arenado walks, their 2020 outlook begins to look quite a bit more dim.

It won't be that significant. And they are good enough to challenge for a WC spot. I just don't see the point in a team in that position to trade their best player for what would amount to one good prospect.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

It won't be that significant. And they are good enough to challenge for a WC spot. I just don't see the point in a team in that position to trade their best player for what would amount to one good prospect.

Correct. The return won’t be enough to just go for it. Make a few tweaks this offseason and hope to get in. Then Nolan could go smoking hot and carry them.

 

[BeanieAntics]

It won't be that significant. And they are good enough to challenge for a WC spot. I just don't see the point in a team in that position to trade their best player for what would amount to one good prospect.

I don't know. How much surplus value does Arenado have without considering the contender's premium? Say about 50-60 million minus whatever he makes in arbitration to get to about 30-40 million. I think some contending team would be willing to pay about 60 million in surplus value to get him if they had a need at 3rd and missed on Machado. I think you could squeeze a couple top 100 prospects out of a team or one top 25 prospect plus some filler. But even if it is less, I'm just more skeptical than you of their competitive outlook this season. Maybe if they find a way to keep or replace Lemahieu and Ottavino it starts to look better, but barring that I'm pretty down on them.

But I should say that it shouldn't be too hard for them to find a Cargo or Parra upgrade, so maybe that helps some.

 

[thewupk]

I don't know. How much surplus value does Arenado have without considering the contender's premium? Say about 50-60 million minus whatever he makes in arbitration to get to about 30-40 million. I think some contending team would be willing to pay about 60 million in surplus value to get him if they had a need at 3rd and missed on Machado. I think you could squeeze a couple top 100 prospects out of a team or one top 25 prospect plus some filler. But even if it is less, I'm just more skeptical than you of their competitive outlook this season. Maybe if they find a way to keep or replace Lemahieu and Ottavino it starts to look better, but barring that I'm pretty down on them.

But I should say that it shouldn't be too hard for them to find a Cargo or Parra upgrade, so maybe that helps some.

Contenders premium doesn't really apply during the offseason. I think you are overshooting his surplus value. He's a 30+ million dollar player on a 1 year deal which will see him making close to mid 20's in arbitration.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm no big fan of Grandal or spending big at catcher, but I would be happy about a Grandal signing at their projection of $45 million over 3 years. I've expected his contract to be north of 4/60 which I would call a clear pass.

If Grandal signs for $45M it seems like a no brainer acquisition to me. Elite pitch framer and above average bat that only required 3 years? Yes please.

Maybe I’m way underestimating how his case of the yips has tanked his value.

 

[Enscheff]

It’s never the right time to trade anybody around here.

Last year before Allard’s debut it was ridiculous how highly some people had him valued.

Intelligent people didn’t have him valued very highly at all.

So who is it the right time to trade? The guy with a recent shoulder injury? The guy who lost an entire year to injuries and personal issues? The guy who clearly showed to everyone watching he can’t get out MLB hitters? The guy who showed he’s another pitcher in his mid 20s who cant improve his command? The guy who spent another season on and off the DL with blister issues?

Which one of those guys should the Braves sell low on?

 

[Enscheff]

Arenardo has one year left with Rockies, if they can’t sign him long term it may be an option worth pursuing SA. It would cost a lot, but it’s worth it if we can sign him long term.

Why do folks keep talking about extending a player who is a year from becoming a FA as if it is going to be a good value?

Arenado isn’t going to sign an extension unless it’s equal to whatever he could get as a FA. At that point, by definition, it isn’t a contract with surplus value.

Oh yeah....and these sign/extend trades never happen.

 

[Enscheff]

It would take a king's ransom to get him and then we'd have to give him the kind of deal that is being discussed for Harper or Machado. Giving up that kind of package and not re-signing him would be very short sighted.

Lol...what?

Arenados current surplus value is currently for 1 year if control. Extending him at market rates adds zero value, and has zero impact on his current trade value.

 

[Enscheff]

Contenders premium doesn't really apply during the offseason. I think you are overshooting his surplus value. He's a 30+ million dollar player on a 1 year deal which will see him making close to mid 20's in arbitration.

Nolan Arenado is definitely more valuable than $30M...unless you mean that’s his surplus value. A 5-6 win guy is worth $50M-$60M. His projected salary of $26M leaves him with ~$30M in surplus value.

Having said that, the Rox aren’t trading him this winter after winning like they did in 2018. Maybe at the deadline he could be a prime target for the Braves though.

 

[TheRunningAgent]

There is one possibility for Teheran if we can trade him. I actually liked the way he looked in the pen that one time in the playoffs. Maybe a 7th inning guy?

 

[Carp]

The problem with keeping SP prospects is their value can torpedo down and they wont be worth as much via trade.

Guys like Allard, Gohara, Fried, among some others values could really hit low a year from now, and we'd be looking like why didnt they move them. It would be beyond stupid to not make at least 1 big trade to help out the team.

The Braves window wont last forever, they need to capitalize on the farm they have, and use some of them in trades to improve the roster which has holes.

Aside from injury or drastic inprovement in performance, it's unlikely their value changes much from where it is currently.

 

[msstate7]

There is one possibility for Teheran if we can trade him. I actually liked the way he looked in the pen that one time in the playoffs. Maybe a 7th inning guy?

Wonder what he could muster up velocity wise in short stints. Throw a crap load of sliders like romo

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Wonder what he could muster up velocity wise in short stints. Throw a crap load of sliders like romo

He would have been an ace with an opener. But seriously. I do hope we tinker with some bull pen games this year. If jT is still around he would be great in that roll. Start sobo for 3-6 batters. Then JT for 4-5 innings. Then lock it down with a couple more guys.

 

[Carp]

I'm not sure we're a top 8 team without any moves.

We have some major flaws and got a little lucky last year. Not sure that happens again. Not saying i'd gut the farm or anything but it would be beyond stupid just to make some patchwork moves when Atlanta has the money and prospect capital to really improve the team this winter.

Major flaws??? We have a good rotation that is extremely deep. We have a pretty good offense as is, that only lost Markakis and that we're likely to upgrade. Even catcher we have a solid vet already and even if we only brought back Zuk, we'd be bringing back a duo that have given us combined top 5 catcher production.

We have some holes, yes. But anybody categorizing this team as having "major flaws" is categorically wrong.

 

[Carp]

Why would they trade their best player.

They could always sign Donaldson, and while he might not be as good as Arenado anymore, he should still be a good player. Assuming they could get MLB ready players in return for Arenado, it's makes a good amount of sense for both the short and long term.

 

[CJ9]

Major flaws??? We have a good rotation that is extremely deep. We have a pretty good offense as is, that only lost Markakis and that we're likely to upgrade. Even catcher we have a solid vet already and even if we only brought back Zuk, we'd be bringing back a duo that have given us combined top 5 catcher production.

We have some holes, yes. But anybody categorizing this team as having "major flaws" is categorically wrong.

I'm holding off before describing the offense as pretty good. Obviously we know what we're getting from Freeman and Acuña, but who else? It's hard to get excited about Swanson or Inciarte. Albies has serious adjustments to make. If we don't get Realmuto, catcher production won't be very exciting. I like Camargo, but I'm not completely sold on him replicating his 2018. We'll certainly add a corner OF somehow, but it needs to be someone who's an upgrade over the offensive season Markakis had last year.

I see a lot more holes than I'm comfortable with right now.