BeanieAntics
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Yeah and I'm sure you're totally open to having your mind changed. /sarcasm
2018 Offseason And Targets
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Yeah and I'm sure you're totally open to having your mind changed. /sarcasm
BeanieAntics
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I'm sure Bumgarner will be alright next year if he is healthy. That isn't the issue. The question is if he is an ace and what price we are willing to pay for a pitcher who only has 1 year of control left. He isn't and we shouldn't do anything more than some random 40-45 FV prospects. The Giants aren't trading him for that, so we won't be acquiring him. Or at least we shouldn't be.
This again was the point to begin with. Fussing about Bumgarner being a World Series MVP and his playoff exploits is pretty ridiculous - if you believe his suddenly going to return to that level, you are a bit nuts.
I do think the argument about him "easily" outpitching Newk isn't a given by any means.
BeanieAntics
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Verlander's fWAR in the 2 seasons leading up to his trade: 8.1
Bumgarner's fWAR in the 2 seasons leading up to his potential trade: 3.1
Yeah, Verlander had 360 innings to Bumgarner's 240, but that doesn't make up for a 5 win difference. Plus Verlander had 3 seasons of control left. Yeah, they were expensive years of control, but he was projected to provide surplus value over the 28 million he was owed. He's provided almost 11 wins over the past two years and is projected for 5.2 next year. He had WAYYYYY more surplus value than Bumgarner who is projected for 2.1 wins next year at a cost of 12 million.
So obviously we shouldn't pay more than ~10 million in surplus value. Fried and Allard is way too much.
Bumgarner's fWAR in the 2 seasons leading up to his potential trade: 3.1
Yeah, Verlander had 360 innings to Bumgarner's 240, but that doesn't make up for a 5 win difference. Plus Verlander had 3 seasons of control left. Yeah, they were expensive years of control, but he was projected to provide surplus value over the 28 million he was owed. He's provided almost 11 wins over the past two years and is projected for 5.2 next year. He had WAYYYYY more surplus value than Bumgarner who is projected for 2.1 wins next year at a cost of 12 million.
So obviously we shouldn't pay more than ~10 million in surplus value. Fried and Allard is way too much.
BeanieAntics
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Their projections certainly aren't too far off.
I'm not bullish on Newcomb, but I do think that fans have jumped completely off the wagon a little too soon on the guy. He gave us a really really good first half and then completely fell off in the 2nd half. I don't see any reason to believe that either one of those halves represents the "real" Newcomb. The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. He's probably a solid 3 or 4 who is frustrating because he can't fully reign in his control. A guy like that has value and we shouldn't be looking to move him for 1 year of a guy who may be marginally better.
The question never was "if he is an ace" - since I actually asked it - but only one person seems to think he'll ever be one again. It's his/her opinion, big deal.
The point that the Giants aren't likely to accept random 40-45 FV prospects for him is certainly legitimate, hence the inclusion of Fried - given the prevailing sentiment around here, one could argue Allard is a random 40-45 FV prospect and even FanGraphs is too high on him. His Highness and plenty of others have gone out of their way plenty of times to say they don't even think he's a major league rotation candidate at all, so how big a loss would he really be??? Everyone's been trying to find a way to put him in a package where someone else hopefully overvalues him because of the rankings and his pedigree for months.
Again, I'm not banging the drum in favor of Bumgarner, but find it a little comical that some of the same people who wouldn't give Fried up in this kind of deal also weren't very happy he was the headliner in the J-Up deal in the first place. If Fried had a clear path to a rotation spot, I could see the complaint - he just doesn't.
We're talking about two California high school "legends" whose names probably resonate with some Giants fans - one who's already had one TJS and the other who's had back problems. If anyone's liable to overvalue them, it's probably the Giants.
Now if you're willing to cut Freeman loose and replace him with Fried and use the extra million bucks to pay Brantley or McCutchen, I'm definitely with you.
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CrazyTrain
Well-known member
I don't put thought into it?
You're saying Bumgarner has been hurt a ton? He had the bike accident and broke his hand last year on a comebacker. How is that "hurt a ton"? hat I see is a workhorse who averaged almost 33 starts a year for his entire career until those two fluke seasons. Please explain to me why you think "he's hurt a ton"?
Can you explain why you think Fried and Allard are anything better than what they've shown so far? Fried averaged 5.3 BB/9 last year. Allard looks like just a guy. Baseball is littered with incorrectly valued prospects. Like Newk, people are just going to stop swinging at his junk.
Think what you want about Fried, but he has no clue where the ball is going.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Prime is 27 and the slope down and much steeper than the slope up. He was healthy when back from the DL last year and all his peripherals continued the downward trend... nope
Southcack77
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All the Giants are hoping for is that some antsy team offers them one real prospect for him. They'd probably jump on that.
I agree if they can't elicit that, they'll probably hold him to see if he can build up some value and maybe get someone to bite.
I'd be looking at trying to get him at that 12-14m surplus value it's fair to value him with.
BeanieAntics
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Maybe, but only if we can piece that together with a couple 40-45 FV prospects. I wouldn't offer them a guy like Wentz or Contreras for Bumgarner.
Southcack77
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BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Uh, I think missing 100 innings two seasons in a row would qualify as being hurt a ton, regardless of how the injuries occurred. The injuries happened, it doesn't matter if they were random, chronic, or whatever. They happened and that means that he is more likely to have future injuries. Joel Zumaya had some fluke wrist injury playing Guitar Hero and he was never the same.
And I don't think much of Allard. He sucks.
You're basing you're opinion of Fried's control on 33 innings last year where his BB/9 rate was a full walk higher than it had ever been in his time with the Braves. He has hovered around a ~4.0 BB/9 since he has been with the Braves. While that is by no means great, its also not as bad as someone like Sean Newcomb when he first got called up. And even with the high walk rate last year, he was still able to put up a sub 3 ERA and an xFIP that was better than Bumgarner's. It was a small sample size and it doesn't mean anything at all, really. But Fried has given us plenty of reason to believe that he can be a solid 3 in our future rotation with 5 years of control. I'm not trading that away for 1 year of a ~2 win pitcher.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Definitely would not do Contreras.
I'd think about Wentz. It seems like slightly too much but I think that's just a factor of how many times I've read his name on lists.
I get that - and don't intend to just "give him away".
The point was, if you're going to use Freeman in the pen instead of Max - and you're not convinced he's going to pass some of the guys ahead of him in the pecking order (Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Wright, Anderson) and San Francisco overvalues him enough to give you a year of Bumgarner and a QO pick for him, why not??? Don't forget, if Bumgarner's traded at the deadline the team getting him can't offer him that QO and get the compensation pick.
FWIW - and just playing devil's advocate - Fried's also already missed two seasons due to injury as well.
BeanieAntics
Arbitration Eligible
Because its poor value allocation. If you want to trade Fried or one of our other MLB ready pitching prospects to clear some out, that is fine. But not for Bumgarner. Those guys just have too much value. If you're going to move them, it needs to be for more of a sure thing and/or a guy that has more control. If you want to put together a package around Fried for someone like Trevor Bauer, I'd be all ears.
That was where the two original trade ideas came from to begin with. Could AA land Pederson to platoon with Duvall AND Bumgarner to see if you happened to catch lightning in a bottle WITHOUT trading any of our top 8 prospects OR Contreras? Doing so would leave enough money available to add a back-end piece.
Max Fried ain't getting you Bauer - unless you're also including Inciarte, Wright, and another 40-45 FV prospect, and you know that.
I'm not arguing your valuation of Fried at all - the problem is that these valuations are composed in a vaccuum. Fried wouldn't be the #11 guy in line to receive starts at the MLB level in ANY other system - that's what he is here.
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BeanieAntics
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That is fair, but we also have Fried for at least 5 more seasons. If we trade for Bumgarner then we have exactly one season to extract value from him. If we don't, then we are losing a lot of potential value.
Like I said, trade Fried for a pitcher if you want to. But trade him for a guy who is a clear upgrade and has a better long term outlook.
Southcack77
Well-known member
Kind of seeing what you want to see there with Newcomb and Fried.
Walks per 9:
Fried 2018 5.3
Newcomb 2017 5.1
Newcomb 2018 4.4
Fried 2017 4.1
Fried struggled with walks in the minors as well.
Newk has also produced a solid half season of baseball and we've seen him dominate the Dodgers and Red Sox on the right day and flirt with no-hitters.
I think it's a little weird that people have concluded that Fried is good and Newk expendable and frankly the Josh Hader stuff is more than a little weird.
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