2018 Offseason And Targets

[Southcack77]

The Ms are so dumb they are being used by the Mets and Phils to unload stupid contracts. The Ms are so dumb they are rebuilding by taking on money while taking in very little future talent

Dipoto is gonna Dipoto, and the Ms are gonna be bad for a looooong time.

It would be nice to see AA strike here.

I'm not sure how the clear Seagar from the payroll without tagging him to Haniger.

But maybe they could come out of this with JP Crawford, Kelenic, and two other top 100 guys, and have a pristine payroll after 2020. That's about as good as it could work out at this point, isn't it?

 

[Super]

That's about as good as it could work out at this point, isn't it?

no?
they could get better value for segura. good player on a good contract. they're taking JP crawford back as the main piece while also taking on santana? that's an awful move. i have to believe segura alone is worth way more than crawford. crawford + santana? yikes. why take on that salary if the best piece you're getting is JPC?

 

[Enscheff]

I'm not sure how the clear Seagar from the payroll without tagging him to Haniger.

But maybe they could come out of this with JP Crawford, Kelenic, and two other top 100 guys, and have a pristine payroll after 2020. That's about as good as it could work out at this point, isn't it?

Sheffield too.

The issue appears to be their desire to spend again in 2 years rather than bite the bullet and rebuild for 4+ years.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I follow him. IF the Ms pay half his salary, he'll be easy to flip.

Seagar at 9-10m probably would interest a fair number of clubs.

Don't forget that Seager's 2022 option will vest if he is traded. He may not be as easy to flip as you think, especially if he continues to underperform.

 

[BeanieAntics]

The Ms are so dumb they are being used by the Mets and Phils to unload stupid contracts. The Ms are so dumb they are rebuilding by taking on money while taking in very little future talent

Dipoto is gonna Dipoto, and the Ms are gonna be bad for a looooong time.

It would be nice to see AA strike here.

I honestly can't believe how much future value Dipoto is leaving on the table in these deals. If the reported deal is correct and Crawford/Santana are the only major pieces headed back to SEA, then this is an epic fleecing by the Phillies. He might be the worst GM in baseball.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I'm not sure how the clear Seagar from the payroll without tagging him to Haniger.

But maybe they could come out of this with JP Crawford, Kelenic, and two other top 100 guys, and have a pristine payroll after 2020. That's about as good as it could work out at this point, isn't it?

Their best move would be to take on as much prospect capital at this point. Instead, as Enscheff pointed out, they are trying to move money so they can spend again in 2 years, but I don't see any way that they'll be competitive enough for it to make sense for them. If they would have focused on selling for maximum prospect capital, they could turned the worst farm in baseball into one of the best farms in baseball really quickly with all the assets they had.

They are making the mistake of not diving head first into a rebuild. Instead they are just trying to move money around while still trying to put a semi-competitive ballclub on the field. Usually that mindset is fatal for a franchise. I don't see the M's being competitive for a long long time.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

There is reports of another bad contract going to the phils. But nothing major. This trade doesn’t make sense to the point I am not buying it until done. Seattle has no clue what they are doing or want to do. Does dumbpotto think this team can win in 2 years.

 

[BeanieAntics]

There is reports of another bad contract going to the phils. But nothing major. This trade doesn’t make sense to the point I am not buying it until done. Seattle has no clue what they are doing or want to do. Does dumbpotto think this team can win in 2 years.

It sounds like they are flipping Swarzak to the Phillies. This deal still doesn't make any damn sense to me. I can't believe how bad Dipoto is at this trading thing. You'd think that he has done it enough to learn some lessons. Apparently he hasn't learned anything.

 

[nsacpi]

It sounds like they are flipping Swarzak to the Phillies. This deal still doesn't make any damn sense to me. I can't believe how bad Dipoto is at this trading thing. You'd think that he has done it enough to learn some lessons. Apparently he hasn't learned anything.

My take is that all three of the big deals the M's have made this off-season are close to fair trades. I don't think anyone got taken to the cleaners on these trades.

The main plan seems to be to clear the decks of financial dead weight so the team can compete again in 2020 or more likely 2021.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

My take is that all three of the big deals the M's have made this off-season are close to fair trades. I don't think anyone got taken to the cleaners on these trades.

The main plan seems to be to clear the decks of financial dead weight so the team can compete again in 2020 or more likely 2021.

So they will buy a team in 2021.

 

[Super]

My take is that all three of the big deals the M's have made this off-season are close to fair trades. I don't think anyone got taken to the cleaners on these trades.

The main plan seems to be to clear the decks of financial dead weight so the team can compete again in 2020 or more likely 2021.

you don't think santana + crawford for segura + swarzak is a fleecing?

 

[nsacpi]

So they will buy a team in 2021.

They are engaged in something similar to what we did with the Matt Kemp trade to the Dodgers. But on a larger scale.

 

[nsacpi]

you don't think santana + crawford for segura + swarzak is a fleecing?

Nope. My estimates for expected surplus value has Segura at +5 wins, Crawford at +4 and Santana at +1. Swarzak I have at -1. So the deal is slightly favorable for the M's if Swarzak is included.

 

[BeanieAntics]

My take is that all three of the big deals the M's have made this off-season are close to fair trades. I don't think anyone got taken to the cleaners on these trades.

The main plan seems to be to clear the decks of financial dead weight so the team can compete again in 2020 or more likely 2021.

I think he got about 75% of Paxton's value, the Mets deal was pretty fair, and he is heading towards losing some value in this Segura trade if the structure is as reported.

The problem with the Mets deal wasn't the value, it was how he decided to get that value. He decided to dump Cano's contract and shift money onto '19 and '20 instead of maximizing the prospect return he got back. And you're right, he did do that with an eye towards competing in the next couple of years. I think that was a mistake. That Seattle team should have approached this as a complete teardown and done what it could to maximize the prospect capital they got back. But I think their impatience is going to keep them from being truly competitive for a long time.

Plus, I think that they could have moved Cano without having to attach Diaz to him. I think they could have found a team willing to trade two bad contracts in '19 and '20 and have Seattle kick in ~30-40 million instead of the 20 they sent to the Mets. Maybe they would have also had to attach a B or C prospect to that deal as well. Or maybe they could have attached Segura instead. But instead of that they attached Diaz who I thought was their most valuable asset (maybe Haniger).

If they traded Diaz by himself, I think they could have fetched an absolute haul from some team. Especially if the recent reliever market is any indication.

 

[Southcack77]

I think he got about 75% of Paxton's value, the Mets deal was pretty fair, and he is heading towards losing some value in this Segura trade if the structure is as reported.

The problem with the Mets deal wasn't the value, it was how he decided to get that value. He decided to dump Cano's contract and shift money onto '19 and '20 instead of maximizing the prospect return he got back. And you're right, he did do that with an eye towards competing in the next couple of years. I think that was a mistake. That Seattle team should have approached this as a complete teardown and done what it could to maximize the prospect capital they got back. But I think their impatience is going to keep them from being truly competitive for a long time.

Plus, I think that they could have moved Cano without having to attach Diaz to him. I think they could have found a team willing to trade two bad contracts in '19 and '20 and have Seattle kick in ~30-40 million instead of the 20 they sent to the Mets. Maybe they would have also had to attach a B or C prospect to that deal as well. Or maybe they could have attached Segura instead. But instead of that they attached Diaz who I thought was their most valuable asset (maybe Haniger).

If they traded Diaz by himself, I think they could have fetched an absolute haul from some team. Especially if the recent reliever market is any indication.

I just don't think a complete tear down is the answer to every problem.

 

[BeanieAntics]

Nope. My estimates for expected surplus value has Segura at +5 wins, Crawford at +4 and Santana at +1. Swarzak I have at -1. So the deal is slightly favorable for the M's if Swarzak is included.

Right, the value might be right but the M's are allocating all of that value onto their MLB squad instead of deferring it to the future. I think that is going to be a fatal mistake for them long term. I'm of the opinion that you can't rush a rebuild and that is exactly what the Mariners are doing. They don't want to be patient.

 

[nsacpi]

I think he got about 75% of Paxton's value, the Mets deal was pretty fair, and he is heading towards losing some value in this Segura trade if the structure is as reported.

The problem with the Mets deal wasn't the value, it was how he decided to get that value. He decided to dump Cano's contract and shift money onto '19 and '20 instead of maximizing the prospect return he got back. And you're right, he did do that with an eye towards competing in the next couple of years. I think that was a mistake. That Seattle team should have approached this as a complete teardown and done what it could to maximize the prospect capital they got back. But I think their impatience is going to keep them from being truly competitive for a long time.

Plus, I think that they could have moved Cano without having to attach Diaz to him. I think they could have found a team willing to trade two bad contracts in '19 and '20 and have Seattle kick in ~30-40 million instead of the 20 they sent to the Mets. Maybe they would have also had to attach a B or C prospect to that deal as well. Or maybe they could have attached Segura instead. But instead of that they attached Diaz who I thought was their most valuable asset (maybe Haniger).

If they traded Diaz by himself, I think they could have fetched an absolute haul from some team. Especially if the recent reliever market is any indication.

From a big picture strategic point of view you could argue that a complete teardown makes more sense.

But looking at value for value, I think the individual deals come close to being fair. And in terms of temporal rearrangement of wins, they have clearly moved wins from the 2019-2020 timeframe to wins further into the future.

 

[BeanieAntics]

I just don't think a complete tear down is the answer to every problem.

Neither do I, but that was the best answer to the Mariner's problems. If you are going to rebuild, I think you have to go into it 100%. If you try to speed it up or if you try to remain competitive while you "re-tool", usually it ends poorly long term.

I just don't see any path to competitiveness with this currently assembled core for the Mariners. Maybe they'll have enough money in 2021 to buy their way back in, but I don't see it.

 

[Super]

Nope. My estimates for expected surplus value has Segura at +5 wins, Crawford at +4 and Santana at +1. Swarzak I have at -1. So the deal is slightly favorable for the M's if Swarzak is included.

that seems extremely generous for crawford.

 

[Super]

I just don't think a complete tear down is the answer to every problem.

the mariners farm system still isn't good and they've unloaded some valuable pieces.