2018 Offseason And Targets

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Carp said:
Youy do realize Greinke was a 4.8 brWAR last season don't you? I don't think you fully giving Greinke the credit he's due.


That's fine if you'd rather go down that road for one of the elite pitchers. I however, would rather not pay a King's ransom in prospects.
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Pretty sure I have to keep my metrics consistent. If I have to pick one to evaluate likely future performance I am going to go with fWAR over bWAR.
 
Enscheff said:
FG projects him at 3.1. It's funny seeing you describe back to back 3+ win season as "only has 2 seasons over 2 WAR" though haha.

Guess you better tell them to scrap their projection system so you can get to work writing a new one. I mean, your spit balling projection system outlined in your post seems legit, so I'd suggest running with it.
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That's nice. Wanna bet on his WAR for 2018?
 
CrazyTrain said:
You do realize that Zack would've had the second highest WAR in the rotation last year and that both his fangraph projections are higher than even Folty for next season?

You don't think that improves our contention chances and that he's a BOR pitcher? He'd be our #1 for crying out loud. Honestly, if we could get he and Peralta in a deal and add a pen arm, this off season would about as good as it could've been.
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I'm just going to chalk up the apparent enthusiasm for this deal to people just thinking it is neat to address multiple perceived needs in one deal.
 
Carp said:
Over/under 3 WAR?
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LOL, if I think 3 is a reasonable projection, why in the world would I take the over?

Everything in your post suggests you think he will struggle to reach 2.

Over/under of 1.5, you name the stakes. Anything higher than that means we don't disagree enough to be worth betting over.
 
Enscheff said:
FG just released the ZiPs projections for the Braves:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-zips-projections-atlanta-braves/

It's mostly projections we all expect to see (4+ win seasons from Freeman, JD, Acuna and Albies), and a few comments that echo exactly what I've been saying...

"even if no individual pitcher has better than a coin flip’s chance of being a star in 2019, the Braves’ enviable young depth can help them compensate for their lack of a true staff ace. The Braves are playing Plinko on The Price is Right, only Drew Carey gave them a hundred of those little disks. ZiPS actually projects the 11th-to-15th best starting pitchers in the organization (Max Fried, Joey Wentz, Wes Parsons, Ian Anderson, and Kyle Muller) to not be that far from league average, which is a filthy, disgusting horde of pitching to have if the projections prove true."

As a quick reminder, the Braves used 13 different SPs last year, and 35 pitchers in total. Anyone who thinks AA won't utilize this depth of arms hasn't been paying attention. And before someone chimes in with the tired "they need a front line starter" cliche, take a look at how pitching staffs of contenders and non-contenders were put together before blabbering.
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I was told that our starting rotation would be a liability.
 
Chico said:
Carrasco signs extension with the Indians
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and they are "increasingly motivated to move" Bauer or Kluber.
I'm still content not pursuing any TOR arm unless the price is great.
extension is for 3 years, 37.5M, btw. seems cheap.
 
Super said:
and they are "increasingly motivated to move" Bauer or Kluber.
I'm still content not pursuing any TOR arm unless the price is great.
extension is for 3 years, 37.5M, btw. seems cheap.
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I would love to get Kluber or Bauer, but I'm fairly confident the Yankees or Phillies will grab one of the two first.
 
Southcack77 said:
I'm just going to chalk up the apparent enthusiasm for this deal to people just thinking it is neat to address multiple perceived needs in one deal.
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I like Peralta to beat his WAR projection (2.8, 3.8 last year) next year as it seems he made some sort of adjustment to increase his power (launch angle perhaps?) and Zack instantly becomes our #1 starter. That's a win/win if you ask me. We fill our empty OF spot with a 30 homer guy who should beat 3 WAR next year and get a aging starter on a bad contract who still is quite good (3-4 WAR). That said, I'm not really advocating for this deal to happen.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
I was told that our starting rotation would be a liability.
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I clarified my statement to say that our rotation is a liability compared to other playoff teams, which is far from incorrect. Maybe you see a bunch of "not that far from league average" starters leading us to a ring, but I don't... at least not this year or in the next 2-3.
 
CrazyTrain said:
I like Peralta to beat his WAR projection (2.8, 3.8 last year) next year as it seems he made some sort of adjustment to increase his power (launch angle perhaps?) and Zack instantly becomes our #1 starter. That's a win/win if you ask me. We fill our empty OF spot with a 30 homer guy who should beat 3 WAR next year and get a aging starter on a bad contract who still is quite good (3-4 WAR).
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Well he can't hit lefties, that's a bit of a problem
 
The Braves should trade 5+ years of playoff baseball to make one huge push the next 1-2 seasons.

Seems like a great idea!
 
It’s pretty comical seeing folks suggest trading for Greinke act as if the prospects required to make the DBacks keep the ~$60M required for the Braves to afford him are any different than the prospects required for a guy like Bauer or Kluber.

A trade for Peralta and Greinke plus enough cash to make the Braves payroll work will require ~$70M in prospect capital....and the Braves are still paying the duo $20M in 2019.

There has to be better value out there.
 
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