2018 Offseason And Targets

[nsacpi]

For the window to continue past the point where the Braves are fairly compensating their current young players, they will have to produce more young players who give them somewhat comparable surplus value. It could happen, but I'd wouldn't say it's the most likely outcome.

The idea is to extent Acuna and Albies on team friendly terms. If we can't do that there is no point. But there are a lot of examples of those kinds of contracts that have helped the teams a lot. The first extension that the Astros signed Altuve. The extension the Pirates signed McCutchen to. We have also done some good team-friendly deals with McCann (way back), Simmons, Kimbrel, Freeman. If you have a chance to do those kinds of deals you really have to.

 

[Carp]

You're advocating making Greinke the highest paid Brave for the next three seasons to save a few prospects. That doesn't make any sense to me.

23m is a large chunk of the payroll and you are spending it on possibly upgrading the back end of the rotation, which is the least defensible place of allocating the Braves resources right now.

I value the next three seasons much more highly than anything that comes after them, because they are the peak contention years. For the window to continue past the point where the Braves are fairly compensating their current young players, they will have to produce more young players who give them somewhat comparable surplus value. It could happen, but I'd wouldn't say it's the most likely outcome.

I can't justify blowing that much money on someone I don't see as having almost any chance of significantly upgrading the Braves contention chances in the short term.

Greinke isn't dead money here. He can be projected to provide roughly 8-9 WAR over the remainder of his contract. That's a overpay on his contract sure, but finding a pitcher capable of giving us at least 2-3 WAR per season won't be cheap.

 

[Tapate50]

Yes, a three year contract doesn't affect four seasons from now.

It affects the hell out of the next three seasons though.

If Greinke/Peralta cost 30m in 2019, 33m in 2020 and 23m (just Greinke) in 2021, why am I not better off simply signing McCutcheon or Brantley to something like 3/48?

In that scenario I keep my dirt cheap Newcomb to keep or trade, I don't give up any prospects at all, and I have 14m, 17m, 7m to go get a comparable player to Greinke.

Cuz right now Brantley is asking for 20m per.

 

[Carp]

Yes, a three year contract doesn't affect four seasons from now.

It affects the hell out of the next three seasons though.

If Greinke/Peralta cost 30m in 2019, 33m in 2020 and 23m (just Greinke) in 2021, why am I not better off simply signing McCutcheon or Brantley to something like 3/48?

In that scenario I keep my dirt cheap Newcomb to keep or trade, I don't give up any prospects at all, and I have 14m, 17m, 7m to go get a comparable player to Greinke.

Because Greinke and Peralta will likely produce twice the amount of WAR over the same time frame.

 

[nsacpi]

Yes, a three year contract doesn't affect four seasons from now.

It affects the hell out of the next three seasons though.

If Greinke/Peralta cost 30m in 2019, 33m in 2020 and 23m (just Greinke) in 2021, why am I not better off simply signing McCutcheon or Brantley to something like 3/48?

In that scenario I keep my dirt cheap Newcomb to keep or trade, I don't give up any prospects at all, and I have 14m, 17m, 7m to go get a comparable player to Greinke.

An important part of what I'm proposing is moving Teheran. Which saves us 12M that would otherwise be spent on a player who projects to be not much more than a replacement level player.

Btw there is a price where signing McCutcheon or Brantley is the better alternative. Lets see how the market shakes out on those guys. Signing one of those two does have the virtue of preserving prospect capital. A big unknown at this point is whether they are looking for a fourth year and whether the market will give it to them.

 

[Southcack77]

Note that we move Teheran as part of this deal. It is all tied together. We take on 23M/year of Greinke's salary. But Teheran is making 11M and is due another 1M as part of the buyout on is 2020 option.

I've grown increasingly warm to the idea, just based on what writers around baseball have suggested, that the Braves can dump most of Teheran's contract if they want to. I've been skeptical of that, but I do think they should be able to dump a percentage of it.

I don't think shedding his dollars is that great a benefit in other words.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

I am with south on this. Spending 20+ million to get 2 to 3 win pitcher next year and less after that is a waste of resources when we can cobble together that many wins for free. I think sometimes people over think a problem and make the solution worse than the original problem. Address cOF not back end rotation. If we are thinking about adding Zack I would rather just trade for Madison.

 

[Southcack77]

Because Greinke and Peralta will likely produce twice the amount of WAR over the same time frame.

Steamer projections:

Brantley 2.6 WAR
McCutcheon 2.8 WAR
Peralta 2.8 WAR

Steamer projects Greinke at 3.2 WAR. I can't go find someone for 14m that can produce roughly 3 WAR?

Just the other day weren't you arguing we could basically get that internally?

 

[Southcack77]

Cuz right now Brantley is asking for 20m per.

He can ask for whatever he likes but that's about 6 million more than anyone is projecting he'll get.

 

[clvclv]

Another DOB note, they think a lot of Gohara and his progress so far. Said having a normal offseason has done wonders for him. They think adding him in the rotation is going to be a difference maker.

The above doesn't jeehaw much with adding a front line starter unless you are dumping Julio IMO.

Really, really, REALLY pulling for Gohara.

His story pulls at everyone's heartstrings, sure - but when he's right, there's absolutely no doubt in my mind that he has the highest upside of any Pitcher that's spent much time in the Braves' system. You don't have to squint hard at all to see him fronting the rotation, and the stories of the weight loss and renewed and improved focus are the entire reason I wouldn't bat an eye if Newk were traded to upgrade another area.

It's so hard as fans to buy into exercising the patience needed with the vast majority of SPs - especially with the window opening - but the payoff with Gohara really does stand to be massive (use the pun if you want).

The returns for others would likely be higher as well, but when ranking the prospects I least want to see traded it's probably Gohara, Riley, Soroka (1A, 1B, and 1C), Anderson, and Contreras for me and I have a really hard time ranking the first three in any particular order.

 

[Southcack77]

You also have Riley and a bunch of pitching prospects starting the 2019 season in AAA. That holds down the cost of filling some of those needs.

Maybe Riley is good. Maybe a 30% K rate doesn't translate very well stepping up the minors.

Maybe these position guys in A and AA fizzle out like most of them do. Pache, Waters, and the catcher are hardly no-doubters. The Braves have very little behind them. Very, very little particularly in the field.

I do think the Braves have a relatively good chance to have a pretty decent cost controlled rotation for 4-5 years but they really do need to cash in their depth here to address other needs and you never do know with pitching.

Braves should pretty much already know if they can get a team friendly extension with their young guys. I wouldn't hang my hat on that happening either. Maybe Albies, who I consider a shakier bet.

 

[nsacpi]

He can ask for whatever he likes but that's about 6 million more than anyone is projecting he'll get.

It will be interesting to see what he and Cutch get. Pollock too. We have remember that Cain got a five year deal at an AAV of 16M last off-season. This coming off his age 31 season. The AAV is actually good value. It's the years that are problematic. Signing Cutch or Brantley (who just finished their age 31 seasons) to a 4-year deal is problematic. We dodged the bullet doing that with Muk (after his age 30 season), but I'd rather not repeat the experiment.

 

[Carp]

Steamer projections:

Brantley 2.6 WAR
McCutcheon 2.8 WAR
Peralta 2.8 WAR

Steamer projects Greinke at 3.2 WAR. I can't go find someone for 14m that can produce roughly 3 WAR?

Just the other day weren't you arguing we could basically get that internally?

No you can't really. Unless you're paying a huge prospect haul for Bauer or Snydergaard. Also, you are forgetting Bradley in the deal.

 

[thewupk]

Steamer projections:

Brantley 2.6 WAR
McCutcheon 2.8 WAR
Peralta 2.8 WAR

Steamer projects Greinke at 3.2 WAR. I can't go find someone for 14m that can produce roughly 3 WAR?

Just the other day weren't you arguing we could basically get that internally?

Well that player will cost you 23 million a year on the free agent market (Corbin) and if you found that player making that amount via trade you will be giving up some decent prospects to acquire him.

 

[Southcack77]

It will be interesting to see what he and Cutch get. Pollock too. We have remember that Cain got a five year deal at an AAV of 16M last off-season. This coming off his age 31 season. The AAV is actually good value. It's the years that are problematic. Signing Cutch or Brantley (who just finished their age 31 seasons) to a 4-year deal is problematic. We dodged the bullet doing that with Muk (after his age 30 season), but I'd rather not repeat the experiment.

Cain and Pollock seem like relatively comparable players. Brantley and Cutch seem a notch below being limited to the corners now.

Hard to really understand the market until the Harper decision gets made.

 

[Enscheff]

If spending $23M to upgrade from Camargo to JD at 3b forced the Braves to shop from the bargain bin at C and cOF, I’m going to chalk that up to a pretty big fail by AA. If that’s the case, he allowed his boner for an ex player to dictate the Braves entire offseason.

A likely scenario is the Braves have only $10M-$15M left to spend right now, and will wait until the dust settles on Harper and Pollock to see what kind of bargain they can scoop up for cOF. Guys like Brantley and Cutch are prime candidates to be left without a chair when the music stops. Markakis is primed to be this year’s Neil Walker who struggles to even find an MLB deal. Once they scoop up that bargain they will make the final decision on Duvall.

I would be shocked if the Braves add Greinke. I’m thinking Gray is more likely if they really want to add a veteran SP they can sell as a “frontline starter”.

Problem is...where is the trade everyone knew was going to happen?

 

[nsacpi]

Problem is...where is the trade everyone knew was going to happen?

We could keep it simple and try to make a trade for Peralta alone or Pederson.

Also if $ become a constraint we could go for someone like Kepler. He is a Super 2 and probably will get 2-3M in arbitration.

 

[Southcack77]

Well that player will cost you 23 million a year on the free agent market (Corbin) and if you found that player making that amount via trade you will be giving up some decent prospects to acquire him.

I can get J.A. Happ or Charlie Morton, projected 3 WAR guys, for significantly less than 23m for probably a two year commitment. something like 16m rather than 14m. But in the ball park.

But in reality, I'm probably not going to be shopping in this bin at all.

 

[thewupk]

I can get J.A. Happ or Charlie Morton, projected 3 WAR guys, for significantly less than 23m for probably a two year commitment. something like 16m rather than 14m. But in the ball park.

But in reality, I'm probably not going to be shopping in this bin at all.

They will sign for more than 14 million a year.

 

[clvclv]

Payroll flexibility year by year under the one-stop-shopping trade idea:

After 2019: O'Day (9M), Donaldson (23M), McCann (2M), Venters (2M), Vizcaino (5M). Total (41M)

After 2020: Peralta (9M estimate), Gausman (10M estimate), Flowers (6M), Winkler (3M). Total (28M)

After 2021: Freeman (22M), Greinke (23M), Bradley (8M estimate), Folty (10M estimate), Duvall (4M estimate). Total (67M)

Plus some additional flexibility is available from non-tendering some players or not exercising some options.

It might be feasible to do a deal for just Peralta, or just Peralta and Bradley. Those scenarios could produce a good trade for us. But I think it is worth playing around with scenarios involving Greinke given the motivation of the Dbacks to move him.

I'm certainly as enamored as anyone with having somebody to front the rotation - rather than, or in addition to Folty. That said, if I were in AA's shoes I'd personally rather gamble that one of these kids (Gohara, Touki, Wright, or Anderson) is going to develop into that guy pretty quickly. Go get Peralta and Bradley, and spend the money that's left (assuming there is some) on Gonzalez or extensions. Having Camargo and Gonzalez as bench pieces that would play an awful lot to keep everybody fresh and healthy would be ideal for me for 2019. If one of the kids doesn't step forward at the top of the rotation this season, let Donaldson walk and make a play for Verlander, Wheeler, or Cole on a shorter-term/higher AAV deal next winter with a big chunk of the money that's coming off then.

Haven't really looked into what you'd need to include to get them to include Bradley, but if Newk gets you Peralta and you need to add one or two of the secondary arms (Allard, Wentz, Muller, Beck) to get it done I'd rather do that and see what happens with the young guns between now and the deadline.

I just really don't want to go into this season with the pen as-is today - I don't think it will destroy our chances in 2019, but I can't shake the feeling that AA will need to go shopping for a Closer at the deadline when he'll REALLY have to overpay. I don't know who that Closer would be if it has to be an internal option, but feel like ONE will be healthy enough if you've got Viz, Minter, Bradley, and Sobotka.