2018 Offseason And Targets

[bravesfanforlife88]

That's way too much for Gallo... however, if we could pick up him reasonable and JTR plus a Gray(also trading JT)... I'd be happy there

Honestly, if we got JTR, Gray, and traded Teheran/Flowers, i'd actually be more inclined to go for Neck....

He has always been a good contact/obp guy which is what you would want in this lineup configuration.

Acuna LF
Donaldson 3B
Freeman 1B
JTR C
Neck RF
Albies 2B
Inciarte CF
Swanson SS

Our offense last year was really good at "keeping the line moving" because we had guys putting the ball in play a lot. I know there are some on this board that don't care if a guy has low OBP skills and strikes out a lot, as long as he hits for power....honestly, we already have guys that will hit for enough power in Acuna/Freeman/Donaldson...we need guys with good contact skills to be on base for those guys, to turn the lineup back over from the bottom to the top, etc.

 

[Hudson2]

I hope AA isn’t waiting around on the Marlins to make up their mind. He has his sights aimed high for guys like Haniger and Peralta and I hope that doesn’t change bc bringing back Neck in any scenario is a fail imo. COF should have been addressed before handing out any big money to anybody.

 

[Southcack77]

Oh good lord... this better not be about Neck because if it is you're just being obtuse. First half and second half is not small chuncks... one half was clearly not like any other half in his past 5 years...

Camargo actually.

A full season sample is a lot more telling than breaking them up and pointing at the worst part and saying "aha this is who he really was all along." If Camargo had a different minor league profile, people, including me (I think he's a utility man too), would have a totally different outlook on what is going on with him. It would just look like a young player getting better and more powerful



But if you want to talk about Markakis we can do that. It's worth looking at.



Markakis has a career BABIP of .317 and put up .318 BABIP in 2018. Career 109 wRC+ and 114 in 2018.

wRC+ BABIP

Mar/April 137 .304
May 147 .382
June 112 .333
July 126 .315

Aug 81 .277
Sept/Oct 83 .291



First Half (58%) 133 .344
Second Half (42%) 88 .288

Basically what I read is that he was out of his mind in the first half, but three of those constituent months don't reflect any particularly surprising result in BABIP based on career norms.

It is absolutely true that his power and hard hit percentages slumped in the second half as compared to the first half, but it's also true that is relatively expected for players in their mid 30s. It's one reason I'm not as keen sometimes on picking up the aging guy at the deadline. Generally speaking older hitters, as a group, tend to "tire" for lack of a better word as the season goes on.

I'm less inclined to say definitively that Markakis' first half was an unrepeatable aberration. There was very little movement in his peripherals beyond hard hit percentages in second half. He just wasn't hitting the ball as hard, it seems, and he was having worse luck.

It's entirely possible that he was just in good physical health and benefitted from some additional information from the front office. He was hitting the ball in the air more often, striking out less, and hitting the ball harder on average than in 2017.

Sometimes a four month sample is just a matter of body being tuned in with its timing and its gone forever when it is gone. But there is very little data from last year that suggest the difference in his season was pitching adjustments, or getting overpowered. I think he legitimately was run down or perhaps mildly injured (which probably amounts to the same thing in the stats of aging player).

With that in mind, I am marginally ok with bringing him back with a plan to sit him more and perhaps upgrade the position when the trade market clarifies in June. Wasn't my play for the offseason, but it always was a fall back provided you were saving money and years. I think anything more than 1 year of club commitment would be a bad move unless it's like 2/12.

 

[nsacpi]

COF should have been addressed before handing out any big money to anybody.

Don't agree. The Donaldson signing is one of the best signings by any team this off-season. If you have an opportunity for a deal with that kind of risk/reward profile you do it, even if it means you improve less at some other positions. To some extent the same can be said of the McCann signing. AA's two main moves this off-season have been very good ones. They do require some re-imagining of how the rest of the roster will be configured, especially as to how Camargo is best deployed.

 

[zbhargrove]

Honestly, if we got JTR, Gray, and traded Teheran/Flowers, i'd actually be more inclined to go for Neck....

He has always been a good contact/obp guy which is what you would want in this lineup configuration.

Acuna LF
Donaldson 3B
Freeman 1B
JTR C
Neck RF
Albies 2B
Inciarte CF
Swanson SS

Our offense last year was really good at "keeping the line moving" because we had guys putting the ball in play a lot. I know there are some on this board that don't care if a guy has low OBP skills and strikes out a lot, as long as he hits for power....honestly, we already have guys that will hit for enough power in Acuna/Freeman/Donaldson...we need guys with good contact skills to be on base for those guys, to turn the lineup back over from the bottom to the top, etc.

Gallo is only 25, and he's had two straight years of fWAR at 2.8... In Neck's one really good year here, he put up a 2.6 at the age of 35 and showed signs of major decline.... Adding JTR to a lineup of Acuna, JD, Freeman, JTR, Ablies, etc... why do you need a guy with an insane OBP... Gallo wouldn't be hitting in a high OBP need spot in the lineup. However, he would be adding ~.300 ISO/40 homer power to the lineup which would be massive in the 5 or 7 hole... but fWAR makes it pretty clear that he is more valuable than Kakes... and likely cheaper money wise in a year before his prime

 

[Hudson2]

Don't agree. The Donaldson signing is one of the best signings by any team this off-season. If you have an opportunity for a deal with that kind of risk/reward profile you do it, even if it means you improve less at some other positions. To some extent the same can be said of the McCann signing. AA's two main moves this off-season have been very good ones. They do require some re-imagining of how the rest of the roster will be configured, especially as to how Camargo is best deployed.

We will just have to agree to disagree then. JD is one of my favorite players in MLB but COF was a bigger weakness than 3b imo and I think AA had the market very undervalued for corner outfielders.

 

[clvclv]

not really advocating for Matt Joyce...just pointing out the hitting projections for him are pretty much the same as for Muk and Cargo...and we should keep that in mind in pricing the latter two

my preferred move is a trade for someone like Pederson or Peralta...but it takes two to tango

That was it - as a last resort, I'd prefer signing Joyce and using the money elsewhere since it'd likely be wasted on Markakis.

 

[zbhargrove]

Camargo actually.

A full season sample is a lot more telling than breaking them up and pointing at the worst part and saying "aha this is who he really was all along." If Camargo had a different minor league profile, people, including me (I think he's a utility man too), would have a totally different outlook on what is going on with him. It would just look like a young player getting better and more powerful



But if you want to talk about Markakis we can do that. It's worth looking at.



Markakis has a career BABIP of .317 and put up .318 BABIP in 2018. Career 109 wRC+ and 114 in 2018.

wRC+ BABIP

Mar/April 137 .304
May 147 .382
June 112 .333
July 126 .315

Aug 81 .277
Sept/Oct 83 .291



First Half (58%) 133 .344
Second Half (42%) 88 .288

Basically what I read is that he was out of his mind in the first half, but three of those constituent months don't reflect any particularly surprising result in BABIP based on career norms.

It is absolutely true that his power and hard hit percentages slumped in the second half as compared to the first half, but it's also true that is relatively expected for players in their mid 30s. It's one reason I'm not as keen sometimes on picking up the aging guy at the deadline. Generally speaking older hitters, as a group, tend to "tire" for lack of a better word as the season goes on.

I'm less inclined to say definitively that Markakis' first half was an unrepeatable aberration. There was very little movement in his peripherals beyond hard hit percentages in second half. He just wasn't hitting the ball as hard, it seems, and he was having worse luck.

It's entirely possible that he was just in good physical health and benefitted from some additional information from the front office. He was hitting the ball in the air more often, striking out less, and hitting the ball harder on average than in 2017.

Sometimes a four month sample is just a matter of body being tuned in with its timing and its gone forever when it is gone. But there is very little data from last year that suggest the difference in his season was pitching adjustments, or getting overpowered. I think he legitimately was run down or perhaps mildly injured (which probably amounts to the same thing in the stats of aging player).

With that in mind, I am marginally ok with bringing him back with a plan to sit him more and perhaps upgrade the position when the trade market clarifies in June. Wasn't my play for the offseason, but it always was a fall back provided you were saving money and years. I think anything more than 1 year of club commitment would be a bad move unless it's like 2/12.

We already looked at Markakis stats in detail... in the past 4-5 years of Kake's career, there is one half that stands out as obviously not like the others... then his second half in his age 35 year, his peripherals reverted back to career norms and he had one of the worst statistical halfs of any regular in baseball. A .344 BABIP is clearly unsustainable when you look at his long career BABIP of .304... not to mention his "out of his mind" year still only netted a 2.6 fWAR... he's a great guy, good club house guy.. but he's clearly declining and I think Steamer projections of 1.1 is pretty optimistic. We have good clubhouse guys and veterans... we're beyond the point of needing that, especially at the price he will likely cost. There's an insane amount of better options out there and it cracks me up that people think the options are dwindling. That being said, I'm okay with it if we are bringing in JTR and another starter... but I still think there are cheaper and better options available even then.

 

[nsacpi]

We will just have to agree to disagree then. JD is one of my favorite players in MLB but COF was a bigger weakness than 3b imo and I think AA had the market very undervalued for corner outfielders.

Seriously what is better

Donaldson at third and Camargo in right

or

Camargo at third and McCutchen in right

there is a significant unknown in the form of how Camargo will far defensively in the outfield...but I think right now, having done nothing in terms of acquiring an outfielder, I like the first scenario better...if we acquire an outfielder and Camargo becomes more of a super utility player then the first scenario becomes even better...

 

[Hudson2]

Seriously what is better

Donaldson at third and Camargo in right

or

Camargo at third and McCutchen in right

there is a significant unknown in the form of how Camargo will far defensively in the outfield...but I think right now, having done nothing in terms of acquiring an outfielder, I like the first scenario better...if we acquire an outfielder and Camargo becomes more of a super utility player then the first scenario becomes even better...

Cutch is more durable. If JD goes down for a long period of time (very possible) then we are in trouble if LF isn’t filled with a very real option (not Camargo ). And I agree about the scenario if a real COF is acquired. I love the Donaldson signing but COF is a must to get fixed.

 

[Southcack77]

We already looked at Markakis stats in detail... in the past 4-5 years of Kake's career, there is one half that stands out as obviously not like the others... then his second half in his age 35 year, his peripherals reverted back to career norms and he had one of the worst statistical halfs of any regular in baseball. A .344 BABIP is clearly unsustainable when you look at his long career BABIP of .304... not to mention his "out of his mind" year still only netted a 2.6 fWAR... he's a great guy, good club house guy.. but he's clearly declining and I think Steamer projections of 1.1 is pretty optimistic. We have good clubhouse guys and veterans... we're beyond the point of needing that, especially at the price he will likely cost. There's an insane amount of better options out there and it cracks me up that people think the options are dwindling.

His career BABIP is .317, not .304. His full season BABIP in 2018 was .318.

I think 1st half / 2nd half is somewhat arbitrary, but sure. Reality is that he was bad in August/September, a two month sample corresponding to the point in time when older veterans generally show decline. Saying that is the real Markakis when for the most part it was well below even recent season norms is not really a fair comment.

I'd like to hear more about how his second half peripherals reverted to career norms. Which ones are you referring to?

 

[Super]

We already looked at Markakis stats in detail... in the past 4-5 years of Kake's career, there is one half that stands out as obviously not like the others... then his second half in his age 35 year, his peripherals reverted back to career norms and he had one of the worst statistical halfs of any regular in baseball. A .344 BABIP is clearly unsustainable when you look at his long career BABIP of .304... not to mention his "out of his mind" year still only netted a 2.6 fWAR... he's a great guy, good club house guy.. but he's clearly declining and I think Steamer projections of 1.1 is pretty optimistic. We have good clubhouse guys and veterans... we're beyond the point of needing that, especially at the price he will likely cost. There's an insane amount of better options out there and it cracks me up that people think the options are dwindling. That being said, I'm okay with it if we are bringing in JTR and another starter... but I still think there are cheaper and better options available even then.

you don't even need to go in-depth with him. his 1st half was clearly an anomaly. 2nd half he was almost exactly the same player he had been the previous seasons. that's who he is.

 

[Super]

His career BABIP is .317, not .304. His full season BABIP in 2018 was .318.

I think 1st half / 2nd half is somewhat arbitrary, but sure. Reality is that he was bad in August/September, a two month sample corresponding to the point in time when older veterans generally show decline. Saying that is the real Markakis when for the most part it was well below even recent season norms is not really a fair comment.

I'd like to hear more about how his second half peripherals reverted to career norms. Which ones are you referring to?

what do you project for markakis next year?

 

[Southcack77]

Cutch is more durable. If JD goes down for a long period of time (very possible) then we are in trouble if LF isn’t filled with a very real option (not Camargo ). And I agree about the scenario if a real COF is acquired. I love the Donaldson signing but COF is a must to get fixed.

You are durable until you aren't, which can happen at any point in your 30s.

I agree with Nscapi that the opportunity to acquire someone with certainly all star and possibly MVP upside on a no risk one year deal, when you have not one but two possible backup plans is a good move.

I'm not that concerned about him missing huge block of time, because the guy just got injured. Before that he played every day.

I'm relieved that the Braves didn't end up with McCutchen as he was the least exciting of the second tier of veterans to me. Just a guy whose prime is gone and is likely going to slowly fade away from here. But still does some things well.

I'm not especially sweating the OF upgrade right now. They'll at least bring in a stop gap and they will have plenty of opportunity to make trades this winter or next summer if necessary.

 

[Southcack77]

what do you project for markakis next year?

I don't do projections. If I had to guess he'll be somewhere between the first three years of his contract and his fourth year.

People have bitched and moaned about him the whole way and will continue to do so. and exaggerate their points beyond what is reasonable.

I don't mind him that much at the right price point. It will be disappointing not to have gotten younger with a more obvious upgrade, but if that's what they end up doing, I can see a rationale for it. I'd much prefer him over someone like CarGo.

 

[Super]

I don't do projections. If I had to guess he'll be somewhere between the first three years of his contract and his fourth year.

People have bitched and moaned about him the whole way and will continue to do so. and exaggerate their points beyond what is reasonable.

I don't mind him that much at the right price point. It will be disappointing not to have gotten younger with a more obvious upgrade, but if that's what they end up doing, I can see a rationale for it. I'd much prefer him over someone like CarGo.

he's likely going to be between 1 and 1.5 WAR. i was fine with his contract all along, fwiw. but having him in LF would be, as others have said, a failure. unless big upgrades come elsewhere at great prices. a competitive team should land a much better guy. the FO shouldn't be looking for the best value IMO.

 

[zbhargrove]

His career BABIP is .317, not .304. His full season BABIP in 2018 was .318.

I think 1st half / 2nd half is somewhat arbitrary, but sure. Reality is that he was bad in August/September, a two month sample corresponding to the point in time when older veterans generally show decline. Saying that is the real Markakis when for the most part it was well below even recent season norms is not really a fair comment.

I'd like to hear more about how his second half peripherals reverted to career norms. Which ones are you referring to?

I accidentally attributed his Steamer BABIP for 2019 as his career since they are right next to each other... doesn't matter though... the gap is still huge. Is his production really that much below recent season norms though? 1.4, 1.2, 0.5 those the 3 seasons of fWAR he put up before last year... guess you don't want to address that 3 year trend of mediocrity and decline, huh?

 

[zbhargrove]

he's likely going to be between 1 and 1.5 WAR. i was fine with his contract all along, fwiw. but having him in LF would be, as others have said, a failure. unless big upgrades come elsewhere at great prices. a competitive team should land a much better guy. the FO shouldn't be looking for the best value IMO.

Its clear to everyone sane it would be a failure if no other significant upgrades are made

 

[Southcack77]

he's likely going to be between 1 and 1.5 WAR. i was fine with his contract all along, fwiw. but having him in LF would be, as others have said, a failure. unless big upgrades come elsewhere at great prices. a competitive team should land a much better guy. the FO shouldn't be looking for the best value IMO.

You got a big upgrade at 3B and as a consequence on the bench.

You have a projected 90ish win team before you do anything in the OF. And you've spent none of your trade assets.

It's also entirely possible that you have significant internal improvement in your young players. Not guaranteed but very possible.

 

[nsacpi]

he's likely going to be between 1 and 1.5 WAR. i was fine with his contract all along, fwiw. but having him in LF would be, as others have said, a failure. unless big upgrades come elsewhere at great prices. a competitive team should land a much better guy. the FO shouldn't be looking for the best value IMO.

Agree that Muk projects 1.0-1.5 WAR

And there are some alternatives that I think are more in the 2.5-3.0 range. Guys like Pederson and Peralta. We don't know how open their clubs are to trading them. So hypothetically there are a set of prices where Muk is the best choice.